2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53188 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #800 on: November 06, 2019, 05:28:59 AM »

In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #801 on: November 06, 2019, 07:16:34 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2019, 07:29:02 AM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

I had an overnight watch so unfortunately could not watch results in real time, but I will happily eat sh**t. I guess Beshear is the king at pulling slim wins out of thin air. Feel free to mock all of my posts about KY. We can’t all maintain a perfect batting average.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #802 on: November 06, 2019, 07:26:50 AM »

I won't call anyone out for having the race as likely Republican, that is a perfectly logical rating, but it was never Safe at any point, which only means there was discarding of Bevin's huge unpopularity numbers and even nowadays, governorships aren't partisan like that. This will very probably apply to Lousiana too
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #803 on: November 06, 2019, 07:37:53 AM »

Truly incredible night for Governor-elect Beshear, but I would pump the brakes on projecting this into 2020 and beyond. McConnell is incredibly unpopular as well but Beshear ran the perfect campaign in KY. I'm not sure McGrath has done the same thus far. Of course there's plenty of time until next year, but the GOP did really well in down ballot races last night. At the very least, we can celebrate this huge victory and Mitch now has something to think about.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #804 on: November 06, 2019, 09:45:01 AM »

I'm curious to see how Beshear's governorship will go? Maybe the path of Ron DeSantis? Elected by an extremely narrow margin, but high approvals months into office?
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Skye
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« Reply #805 on: November 06, 2019, 10:22:14 AM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #806 on: November 06, 2019, 10:24:07 AM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

Like I thought, there were more pollsters in the state that we realized, they just all held their numbers because nobody believed what they showed. So only the bad and scheduled polls got released. Even then, the bad and scheduled polls were few and far inbetween.
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #807 on: November 06, 2019, 10:33:26 AM »

Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.
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Badger
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« Reply #808 on: November 06, 2019, 11:08:41 AM »

In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.

I'm sorry, but no. Declaring Bevin winning as the overwhelming likelihood was foolish considering there was almost no worthwhile pulling in the race, no very few holes worth a damn such as Mason-Dixon showed a neck and neck race, and Bevan had among the worst approval ratings of any governor in the country.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #809 on: November 06, 2019, 11:16:01 AM »

Biden/Beshear 2020!  lol
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #810 on: November 06, 2019, 11:21:40 AM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

If that was released I think the forum would've been off by a lot more than we were lol. I can't even see the logo for who did it it's so small.
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Gracile
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« Reply #811 on: November 06, 2019, 11:23:44 AM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

If that was released I think the forum would've been off by a lot more than we were lol. I can't even see the logo for who did it it's so small.

It's Trafalgar, a Republican pollster with a history of iffy polling results.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #812 on: November 06, 2019, 11:24:02 AM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #813 on: November 06, 2019, 12:38:40 PM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?


Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.

Never seen this one before.

It wasn’t even posted on Wikipedia ...
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Pollster
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« Reply #814 on: November 06, 2019, 01:29:25 PM »

Not sure if this has already been discussed (I stopped reading after Beshear was named apparent winner) but Kenton almost exactly matched the statewide margin.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #815 on: November 06, 2019, 01:56:23 PM »

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?


Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.

Never seen this one before.

It wasn’t even posted on Wikipedia ...

538 only added it today, so I think it must not have been publicly released.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #816 on: November 06, 2019, 02:01:44 PM »

Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.

They can't. It would be unconstitutional and any such attempt would be killed off by the courts quickly. 

Quote from: Kentucky Constitution § 70
The Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected for the term of four years by the qualified voters of the State.  They shall be elected jointly by the casting by each voter of a single vote applicable to both offices, as shall be provided by law.  The slate of candidates having the highest number of votes cast jointly for them for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected
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DrScholl
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« Reply #817 on: November 06, 2019, 02:10:52 PM »

Not that constitutionality will stop the legislature from at least trying to declare Bevin the winner. It's clearly under consideration

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

Quote
Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.

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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #818 on: November 06, 2019, 02:13:26 PM »

Not that constitutionality will stop the legislature from at least trying to declare Bevin the winner. It's clearly under consideration

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

Quote
Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.




How the heck is that an argument, the state constitution does not state that a candidate has to win a majority of the vote , just highest meaning a candidate just needs a plurality to win
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Duke of York
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« Reply #819 on: November 06, 2019, 02:23:43 PM »

Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.

They can't. It would be unconstitutional and any such attempt would be killed off by the courts quickly. 

Quote from: Kentucky Constitution § 70
The Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected for the term of four years by the qualified voters of the State.  They shall be elected jointly by the casting by each voter of a single vote applicable to both offices, as shall be provided by law.  The slate of candidates having the highest number of votes cast jointly for them for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected

And what's to stop them from ignoring the courts. Republicans have clearly shown they find Democracy an annoyance
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #820 on: November 06, 2019, 02:30:57 PM »

If they don't like a third-party candidate influencing the outcome, maybe they should implement RCV.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #821 on: November 06, 2019, 02:50:48 PM »

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Pericles
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« Reply #822 on: November 06, 2019, 02:54:29 PM »

In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.

Maybe it depends to an extent on the red state that is being discussed, and KY while having a big Trump margin had dynamics that made a Beshear win more plausible than red states with similar partisanship at the presidential level.
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #823 on: November 06, 2019, 04:36:02 PM »

I know next to nothing about Kentucky politics but the senate leader seems to think this is a thing.

Anything they try wouldn't surprise me at all.


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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #824 on: November 06, 2019, 04:52:24 PM »

Don Blankenship’s hometown Stopover Pike co KY



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