2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

We’re literally talking in circles now, but how do you explain the swing to the Republicans in 2008 of all years then? The economy nearly crashed then yet they rewarded the Republican Party with record levels of support (at that point in time) in Appalachia and much of the rural white south

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.

Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

The morning after Obama won in 2008, teammates of mine on my football team thought it would be hilarious to wear towels on their heads to school the next morning because they were adamant he would impose Sharia Law. There’s plenty of these examples, but not sure if they’re safe for work

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.

Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

The morning after Obama won in 2008, teammates of mine on my football team thought it would be hilarious to wear towels on their heads to school the next morning because they were adamant he would impose Sharia Law. There’s plenty of these examples, but not sure if they’re safe for work

You literally live in San Antonio lmao

It’s called growing up and moving the hell out of there dude

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites.

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Because the place every immigrant that comes to America wants to go is Kentucky right

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up 😂

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Oof

https://mobile.twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1180228336720715781?ref_src=tws...

Meanwhile, both parties have this race “very close”

Gee. I wonder how the undecideds break

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

There are actually plenty of clues how this race will end up. The first clue is that it’s a partisan election being held in Kentucky.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Here's a thought: If Bevin does win easily, will people claiming that this is a Toss-Up race or that Beshear is going to win because Bevin was unpopular admit that they were wrong? Because as I've said before, I'll happily eat crow if Beshear somehow wins.

Based on what happened in the NC-9 special election when some people thought there was no way McCready could ever improve in the suburban areas that Bishop represented in the Senate and lose a lot of ground in the rural areas at the same time, my guess is that they will remain radio silent on election night and stay away from the Kentucky thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.

No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

This has to be the worst analysis since Dick Morris in 2012

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Sad but true. And we might see JBE tossed out despite his popularity for being a Democrat anyway.

It seems when it comes to governors races, Democrats need a set of really exceptional circumstances to win red states these days (KS, LA, WV).

Meanwhile all it takes for blue states to elect Republicans is the perception of the Dem gubernatorial candidates as lazy (Anthony Brown, Martha Coakley, Sue Minter)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

There goes Elliott County

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This thread is a dumpster fire.

No. This race unfolded exactly as Mr. IceSpear and Xingerui predicted it would unfold in the first few pages of this thread. People grilled them over it, but it still seems like they aren't getting the credit they deserve.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This thread is a dumpster fire.

Is that because most people are coming to a consensus you don't like?

It seems like Politician thinks that Xingerui, IceSpear and me want Beshear to lose. I can't speak for them, but I definitely don't, and I'd be quite pleased if by some act of God Beshear won. But the reality is that this is Kentucky. We're at the point in this country that Bevin and Trump could probably hold a rally where they insult Kentuckians with incest jokes and missing teeth and Bevin would still win convincingly.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

Well, it's different, but not in the sense the blue Kentucky crowd would like: KY is far more rural than LA.

Here’s how rural Iowa returns to 2012 levels but Texas is still safe R too while we’re at it...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

At least jim Hood has a good cushion of black folks and some suburban areas of the state to fall back on so he could get close. Beshear does not really have anything goin for him outside of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

At least jim Hood has a good cushion of black folks and some suburban areas of the state to fall back on so he could get close. Beshear does not really have anything goin for him outside of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort

Hood's chances are definitely better than Beshear's, but it's hard to see him actually winning at this point. And Hood is going to collapse in the northeastern foothills, compared to his prior races. It is undeniable that he will be hit in full force by the same trends of polarization as well.

The funny thing is that Mississippi seems to be flying so under the radar compared to KY and La so much that Trump might not even hold a rally there. Which may just be the only opening Hood has

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think it'll be 56-41 Bevin at this point. Kentucky is even quite a bit redder than Louisiana.

I’m starting to think replicating Jim Gray’s margin of defeat might be one of Beshear’s best case scenarios. Just doing a quick Google search of the news in this race yields the top topics in this race: abortion, Trump and impeachment. Yikes. None of those are issues that Beshear should want the race to be centered on

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll can’t be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.

If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Keep in mind he’s probably expectation setting. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see it double digits. I’m expecting something like 54-41 like the 2014 Senate race