2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[IceSpear]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

[IceSpear]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.

You're moving the goalposts. Every time a Democrat wins in a red state, you create an excuse and say they won't win in a red state again. "Moore was a pedophile", "Manchin was an incumbent", "Kansas is a purple state", etc.

I don't know why you're still using Kansas as an example when I had it as a toss up the entire election, lol.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Yeah, rip Wokelahoma.

Oklahoma stitt the bed and now they're up stitt's creek without a paddle.

[IceSpear]

Trump will hold a rally in KY to try to bail out Bevin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/matt-blevin-kentucky-governor-trump-pence-044735

I'd say this is another nail in Beshear's coffin, but I'm not sure there's enough real estate on that coffin to fit another nail at this point.

[IceSpear]

But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

[IceSpear]

No, it's because this thread has become nothing but circlejerking.

Look at it this way: in a few weeks you'll either be able to laugh at and mock all our posts, or recognize that you should've been listening to our "circlejerking" all along.

[IceSpear]

But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

https://twitter.com/MattJonesRadio/status/1182480886555648000

He also did say months before that Beshear had a 10-12% lead in polling early on, but it looks like it's vanished since. Very surprising to see a Democrat hold an early lead in a race in Kentucky only to see it disappear as the race goes on. Very unprecedented.

Yet McGrift can't even lead a year+ in advance. Sad!

[IceSpear]

Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

Well, it's different, but not in the sense the blue Kentucky crowd would like: KY is far more rural than LA.

[IceSpear]

Beshear's numbers CRATERING among Kentucky's Acadian voters. devastating blow to his campaign

You'll be going down with the ship, huh? Well, I suppose that's an admirable quality.

And yeah, because Dems have faired so much better in Appalachia as opposed to Acadiana, lol.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, if a popular incumbent Democrat who's pro-life might lose in Louisiana, Beshear isn't coming close to winning. My prediction of 54-43 might even be too generous to him.

Even though the eventual victor is a foregone conclusion, this race will still be interesting to watch to see the eventual margin + the inevitably amazing swing map.

[IceSpear]

So I am not very familiar with Kentucky political geography. If Beashar or Stumbo win where in the state would they pick up the votes?

Trends are so real that Bevin probably carries Elliot County even if he lose statewide.

We're talking in the academic sense, right? Like the "post a ward map of a Republican win in DC" sense, right?

In that case, Jalawest2 posted a decent map in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=308427.0

[IceSpear]

i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

Honestly, I don't view it as particularly impressive to correctly predict a Republican will win in f'ing Kentucky, I just view it as stating the obvious. But this is the Atlas Forum, so...

[IceSpear]

In this year’s governor’s race, Bevin and his surrogates have largely abandoned economic issues in the last weeks of the campaign and have focused almost exclusively on social issues like abortion and trying to instill fear in voters with pictures of scary Latino gang members.

And it just might be working.

But Atlas told me that Democrats lose because they spend too much time on SJW identity politix and not enough time on "kitchen table issues" and "bread and butter issues!" That's why they lose the "WWC" and Appalachia!

Atlas #populists just got #triggered

[IceSpear]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll can’t be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.

If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll

It's also an October poll, even though Beshear should be collapsing.

Just like Targoz told us Bredesen wasn't collapsing in November, right?

[IceSpear]

^Is "high polarization" your favorite one?

[IceSpear]

I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living.

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

[IceSpear]

I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living.

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

Literally isn't though. Just off the top of my head KYWildman, Tender Branson, and Bandit thought this.