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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  What numbers would JBE be polling if he were running in a less diverse Red State
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Author Topic: What numbers would JBE be polling if he were running in a less diverse Red State  (Read 1176 times)
PoliticalShelter
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« on: October 28, 2019, 09:03:38 am »

Say if Bel Edwards was running for re-election in a similarly Red state as Louisiana (PVI wise) but the state was overall less racially polarised, say he was running in Montana or Kansas or Missouri. Or even in a somewhat more redder (but whiter) state like Tenessee or Arkansas.

How much better would he be polling now (if he would at all). Assume that this election would be taking place at the same year and JBE has the same approval rating in this state as he does in Louisiana.
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2019, 09:33:39 am »

Given that white voters tend to be the most elastic racial group (up and until their political hegemony is threatened), I'd surmise that JBE as an incumbent would be doing as well as he is presently, give or take - though obviously that depends on the political history of the state in question.

I think this would only apply outside of the broader South at this point, though; throughout most of the South, the rough metric of "for every 1 black voter you add, you lose 1 white voter" would still apply (though perhaps less so in places like AR & TN).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2019, 07:12:43 pm »

He'd be favored in KS/MT, slight underdog in MO, and DOA in TN/AR.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2019, 09:28:37 pm »

in MT it would be likely D
in MO and KS it would be lean D
in AR it would be lean R
in TN it would be likely R
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 09:55:06 am »

very low, he needs to campaign in Louisiana if he wants to win re-election there
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 11:51:09 am »

MT: Likely D
KS: Tilt D
MO: Lean R
AR/TN: Safe R
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Skunk
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 11:58:15 am »

Montana: Likely D
KS: Lean D
MO: Tossup/Tilt D (though this may be just optimism on my part)
AR/TN: Safe R
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 02:33:53 pm »

in MT it would be likely D
in MO and KS it would be lean D
in AR it would be lean R
in TN it would be likely R
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Lucas Whitefur
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2019, 11:08:03 am »

He'd probably be favored in Montana, but the underdog everywhere else, to varying degrees.
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swamiG
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« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2019, 05:15:35 pm »



Yep that’s JBE in literally every red state, shaded according to their election ratings. I have him losing by 3-and-a-half votes in FL btw
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2019, 06:11:11 pm »

He'd be favored in KS/MT, slight underdog in MO, and DOA in TN/AR.

Agree with this except I think he’d be favored in Missouri if he had the same political profile and popularity. Missouri showed just last year that there is a breaking point for which they will take a competent Democratic incumbent over someone who is unqualified
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2019, 07:26:25 am »

I disagree with the notion that JBE would be DOA in whiter states like Arkansas and Tennessee (he could definitely win in Missouri). What he would lose in lack of blacks he would gain in less stubborn white Republican voting. It's easy to say Arkansas and Tennessee would be Safe R no matter what because no Democrats have had success there since at least 2008, but all southern states still have a Democratic tradition that can be reignited in the case of an unpopular Republican governor or a culturally fitted Democratic candidate (at the state level, that is). Even in Mississippi, if Bevin had been governor of Mississippi and had all the same record, controversies, and popularity I think Hood would've defeated him. The only states I would see JBE losing kinda badly are Alabama and Oklahoma.

There are multiple things that have to go right for these types of Democrats to have success (in various different red states), and depending on how this election goes we may learn 2015 was the perfect environment for JBE to get elected (unpopular Jindal and diaper Dave as his opponent) that cannot be repeated in a generic circumstance. It's just that these situations for this right type of Democrat to win are rare, few and far between.
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Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020
swamiG
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 08:06:24 pm »

I disagree with the notion that JBE would be DOA in whiter states like Arkansas and Tennessee (he could definitely win in Missouri). What he would lose in lack of blacks he would gain in less stubborn white Republican voting. It's easy to say Arkansas and Tennessee would be Safe R no matter what because no Democrats have had success there since at least 2008, but all southern states still have a Democratic tradition that can be reignited in the case of an unpopular Republican governor or a culturally fitted Democratic candidate (at the state level, that is). Even in Mississippi, if Bevin had been governor of Mississippi and had all the same record, controversies, and popularity I think Hood would've defeated him. The only states I would see JBE losing kinda badly are Alabama and Oklahoma.

There are multiple things that have to go right for these types of Democrats to have success (in various different red states), and depending on how this election goes we may learn 2015 was the perfect environment for JBE to get elected (unpopular Jindal and diaper Dave as his opponent) that cannot be repeated in a generic circumstance. It's just that these situations for this right type of Democrat to win are rare, few and far between.

Actually agreed with all the above. But literally everything has to go right for JBE (weak/unpopular/controversial incumbent or challenger), if he ran in states like MS, AR, TN, OK & AL. As such, his race’s rating against a generic R in those states would still be Safe R.
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2019, 11:42:22 am »



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President Biden
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2019, 11:49:51 am »

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2019, 11:55:03 am »

JBE would never win the Democratic nomination in MT, so this is a moot point. A Montanan version of JBE which actually made it out of the primary would have substantially less crossover appeal in the general election, which is why there’s no reason to believe he’d do better than Bullock in 2016.

Also, his haircut would be less neoliberal in MT.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2019, 01:09:51 pm »

JBE would never win the Democratic nomination in MT, so this is a moot point. A Montanan version of JBE which actually made it out of the primary would have substantially less crossover appeal in the general election, which is why there’s no reason to believe he’d do better than Bullock in 2016.

Also, his haircut would be less neoliberal in MT.

Come to think of it, how would JBE ever win in MT with his receding hairline?
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