Bellwether counties under a Democratic winner

[Woke Frenzy]

All those bellwether counties have been "perfect" since 1980 or longer.
Which of them will have voted for the Democratic nominee based upon the premise that he wins the presidential election.
I'm asking that question as I think most of the "most successful" bellwether counties have turned into GOP voting areas.





PS: There are two further bellwether counties that used to vote like a microcosm of the whole nation for a very long time, but which I, alas, didn't include as they weren't listed in the relevant Wikipedia article back when I compiled this poll 😟:
Juneau County,Wisconsin (since 1964!) and Warren County, Illinois (since 1980).
But they've eventually lost their bellwether status, thus in the end their omission didn't matter for this poll.

[Frenchrepublican]

These three counties remain probably good bellwether counties as they are still winnable for a D presidential candidate under normal circumstances :
Valencia county, NM
Clallam County, WA
Hidalgo County, NM

Counties which will likely lose either in 2020 or in 2024 their bellwether status :
Vigo, IN
Sawyer, WI (even Baldwin lost it)
Ottawa, OH
Westmoreland, VA
Wood County, OH

But Wood County is still a very interesting place as it is a good bellwether for the state of Ohio as whole

[The People's Liberation Army of Rancho Cucamonga]

I have family in Clallam County. I think it's highly likely to vote for most of the Democratic nominees. That area has a good population of aging hippies.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Clallam has the most potential to remain a bellwether.

[Woke Frenzy]

Why do so many people assume that Essex County, VT, has become a Republican stronghold? 

[walleye26]

I don’t see Sawyer, WI being a bellwether at all. The only reason it was that lucky was due to a perfect variety of factors that look unlike anything else: high Native American population (about 16% of the population) lots of retired Chicago/Twin Cities liberals, balanced out by rural Republicans. The county is too rural to be a bellwether. If you’re looking in Wisconsin, I would argue Columbia County is much better.

[Woke Frenzy]

I don’t see Sawyer, WI being a bellwether at all. The only reason it was that lucky was due to a perfect variety of factors that look unlike anything else: high Native American population (about 16% of the population) lots of retired Chicago/Twin Cities liberals, balanced out by rural Republicans. The county is too rural to be a bellwether. If you’re looking in Wisconsin, I would argue Columbia County is much better.

If a county votes "correctly" 14 times in a row, with only two counties voting even more "perfectly", I think "luck" is the wrong term to explain its bellwether status. Furthermore, Columbia County has proven itself an anti-bellwether.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

The problem with many of these supposed "bellweather counties" is that we're seeing early stages of a realignment that started circa 2014 and most of these counties happened to be on the right side of the  realignment in 2016 to preserve their "bellweather" status. They'll continue to be "bellweathers" if and only if Trump wins in 2020 because they're going to vote for him anyway. Westmoreland, VA and Sawyer, WI are the most obvious examples to me but I don't know the rest about the other states to comment.

[Alben Barkley]

Valencia County voted 13% for Gary Johnson, he was a major spoiler there. Johnson also got 5% in 2012, contributing to a narrower Obama win than in 2008. So assuming a more palatable Democratic candidate than Hillary for them and Johnson doesn’t run again (both seem likely), it could well maintain its streak.

[ElectionsGuy]

The far northwest one in Washington is the only one I can see voting Dem in a Democratic victory, and even that's questionable.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why do so many people assume that Essex County, VT, has become a Republican stronghold? 

Probably because they are misreading the 2016 result there. Essex County has always been in recent history a super-elastic bellwether that gave the winning national candidate a margin of victory far larger than their national victory. 2016 was nothing new there.

[Politician]

Why do so many people assume that Essex County, VT, has become a Republican stronghold? 

Probably because they are misreading the 2016 result there. Essex County has always been in recent history a super-elastic bellwether that gave the winning national candidate a margin of victory far larger than their national victory. 2016 was nothing new there.

Yeah, Trump won it by only 10% when you factor in the Bernie write-ins, and Bush won it by that much in 2004. Still wouldn't bet on it flipping though.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why do so many people assume that Essex County, VT, has become a Republican stronghold? 

Probably because they are misreading the 2016 result there. Essex County has always been in recent history a super-elastic bellwether that gave the winning national candidate a margin of victory far larger than their national victory. 2016 was nothing new there.

Yeah, Trump won it by only 10% when you factor in the Bernie write-ins, and Bush won it by that much in 2004. Still wouldn't bet on it flipping though.

While Obama won it by way more than his national margins both times as well.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don’t see Sawyer, WI being a bellwether at all. The only reason it was that lucky was due to a perfect variety of factors that look unlike anything else: high Native American population (about 16% of the population) lots of retired Chicago/Twin Cities liberals, balanced out by rural Republicans. The county is too rural to be a bellwether. If you’re looking in Wisconsin, I would argue Columbia County is much better.

Even Baldwin lost it

[Woke Frenzy]

Providing Biden wins, only one of those "top 10" bellwether counties seems to have survived its bellwether streak. Only one. 1! Even those two counties that used to vote for the eventual winner since the 50's have turned Republican. 

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kent County's bellwether streak remains alive.

[Woke Frenzy]

Kent County's bellwether streak remains alive.

Which Kent County?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kent County's bellwether streak remains alive.

Which Kent County?

The one in Delaware.

[Woke Frenzy]

Kent County's bellwether streak remains alive.

Which Kent County?

The one in Delaware.

If you count all elections they voted for the winner, Kent County, Delaware, has voted extremely "accurately" over the last 100 years.
I, on the other hand, only measure the length of the county's bellwether streak, though. On that score, Kent County, merely began to vote for the eventual winner in 1996.

[Figueira]

Biden also flipped Kent County in Michigan, Rhode Island, and probably Maryland. The only remaining Kent County for Trump was the one in Texas.

[Figueira]

Kent County's bellwether streak remains alive.

Which Kent County?

The one in Delaware.

If you count all elections they voted for the winner, Kent County, Delaware, has voted extremely "accurately" over the last 100 years.
I, on the other hand, only measure the length of the county's bellwether streak, though. On that score, Kent County, merely began to vote for the eventual winner in 1996.

For the first definition there's also Blaine County, Montana. Only misses were 1912 and 1988.

[Woke Frenzy]

Can anybody tell me what went wrong in Essex, Vermont?
That county has not only lost its bellwether status this year, but it also voted waaaay to the right of its own state as a whole, and Trump even managed to gain some votes. I am well aware that that county was a struggle even for Bernie two years ago, but he succeeded in keeping it in the end.
Why do the results deviate so much from the rest of the sate? Do hippies deliberately shun the northeastern corner?

[bagelman]

Can anybody tell me what went wrong in Essex, Vermont?
That county has not only lost its bellwether status this year, but it also voted waaaay to the right of its own state as a whole, and Trump even managed to gain some votes. I am well aware that that county was a struggle even for Bernie two years ago, but he succeeded in keeping it in the end.
Why do the results deviate so much from the rest of the sate? Do hippies deliberately shun the northeastern corner?

The Northeast Kingdom has always been unique within Vermont. It's going the way of the rest of low tier rural America, following Coos NH and northern Maine.

[Woke Frenzy]

The Northeast Kingdom has always been unique within Vermont. It's going the way of the rest of low tier rural America, following Coos NH and northern Maine.

I guess it's the poorest county of Vermont.