Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Brian P. Kemp.

Doesn’t matter if Trump is re-elected. Abrams operation is designed to get low propensity Democrats out and the race will no doubt get massive attention.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

Dems got 46 percent in a D+4 presidential and 45 percent in a R+6 midterm. GA is inelastic and the non-white vote is only growing. The dam can break in 2022 with a Dem President. Especially with a figure like Abrams as the nominee.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.

Huh? The argument from the Republicans on this forum is always about the national environment now it's about whether or not the state was contested? Carter/Nunn definitely did NOT contest the state as hard as Abrams did. They did not try to turn out low propensity voters of color they spent their energy on reliable "independent" whites. GA is getting less white by the second and white suburbans are abandoning the GA GOP. GOP won a low turnout runoff by 4 points. A mid to high turnout general election in 2022 is a tossup.

[Rookie Yinzer]

John Barrow only outperformed her in his old congressional district....

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.

Huh? The argument from the Republicans on this forum is always about the national environment now it's about whether or not the state was contested? Carter/Nunn definitely did NOT contest the state as hard as Abrams did. They did not try to turn out low propensity voters of color they spent their energy on reliable "independent" whites. GA is getting less white by the second and white suburbans are abandoning the GA GOP. GOP won a low turnout runoff by 4 points. A mid to high turnout general election in 2022 is a tossup.

It won’t be with a dem in the WH is exactly what I am trying to say lol

I don’t believe that so I guess we will see in three years.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams has hurt herself politically with her conspiracy theories over the last election

Fake news.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Trump is re-elected then Kemp loses I think, possibly either of the other two in a perfect storm. If Trump loses I don’t see any of them losing in a Dem pres midterm.

Kemp is done regardless.

Obama lost GA by 8 while he won nationwide by 4. Carter/Nunn lost by 8 while the GOP won the House vote by 6. Who’s in the White House doesn’t matter.