Torn between Kemp and Dunleavy. Alaska is an elastic state and oil prices cause governors to frequently become unpopular etc. But Kemp only won by a point and a half, and he's not currently acting like it.
Honestly this. Gun to my head, though, I'll go with the slightest tilt Kemp, if only because Abrams has already proven herself able to massively overperform in a very hostile red state, even without a Democratic base that feels she was robbed & will not only easily give her the nomination again, but whose low propensity voters will go a great deal toward sending her to the Governor's Mansion.
Dunleavy is the likeliest just by virtue of Alaska being ungovernable.
Guessing there's a reason why Tony Knowles (D) was the last AK Governor to serve 2 full terms.
Since then:
Daddy Murkowski (R), 2002-2006: lost BIGLY in GOP Primary in 2006.
Sarah Palin (R), 2006-2009: resigned for some weird reason. We still don't know why she upped & quit.
Sean Parnell (R), 2009-2014: served out the remainder of Palin's term & won election to full term in 2010 landslide; lost reelection in 2014.
Bill Walker (Ind), 2014-2018: didn't seek reelection in 2018.
Mike Dunleavy (R), 2018-
And hell, even when Knowles himself sought a third, non-consecutive term as governor in the Democratic-friendly year of 2006, he lost by 7 points to some then-unknown small town mayor who was the nominee of the party whose then-incumbent governor's approval ratings were in the tubes... god, was Sarah Palin lucky from 2006-08.
Also, Palin resigned (in addition to being targeted in ethics probes) because she's a whiny conservative quitter who had absolutely zero interest in running the State of Alaska (both before & after going national) & couldn't answer the door fast enough when the opportunity for making a huge amount of money knocked.
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