Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?

[MT Treasurer]

Kemp is the most vulnerable even if he stays popular. I expect GA 2022 to look a lot like a Democratic version of 2002.

[MT Treasurer]

If a Democrat is elected: Likely None , but Iowa

LMAO

Iowa is no where near as Republican as you claim just like NH wasnt as anywhere near as Dem as you claimed. The reasons are simple, both are pretty elastic states a concept you mock.


Georgia just isnt there for a Dem to win with a Dem Presidency, as Dems have to turnout huge for them to win Georiga and I dont see that happening with a Dem in the WH

You’re kidding yourself if you seriously believe that Reynolds is more likely to lose than Kemp in a Biden midterm, no matter how relentlessly you continue to shout vague buzzwords such as polarization or elasticity at the top of your lungs.

[MT Treasurer]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

[MT Treasurer]

Cite your sources, man. Anyway, I wouldn't call Kemp safe at all in a Democratic midterm, especially if he's unpopular. It's probably going to be close regardless of who's president, since I think Georgia's going to be consistently close for the next several cycles (like Florida, though moving leftward.)

Oops, good catch. Yeah, I don’t get why he thinks that a VA GOP 2009 redux is feasible for Kemp when even Deal won by the same margin as Romney in a GOP wave year. "Inelasticity" cuts both ways, it doesn’t just benefit Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

There’s really no way Republicans lose IA in an environment in which GA trends back to being solid R, even if it’s just for one more time.

[MT Treasurer]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

"Democrats need huge turnout to do well in elections." Well, duh. Clinton was hardly an inspiring candidate and still kept the state within five points.

[MT Treasurer]

Remember I said the answer is likely none of the states will flip. And yes Dems can win low turnout elections in Iowa because there are more swing voters in Iowa than in Georgia. In a swing or leaning state like Georiga, elections are decided by turnout while in states like Iowa and New Hampshire they are decided by Swing Voters

Brad Raffensperger (R) won a low-turnout runoff by four points even though he managed a tie in places like Cobb and Gwinnett County, something Trump and literally any Republican running statewide can only dream of. Not exactly a reassuring sign for the GA GOP’s ability to win future elections. There might be more "swing voters" in Iowa than Georgia, but that really doesn’t mean much when (a) Iowa is consistently several points more Republican than Georgia (and that includes statewide/Senate races), (b) Iowa is trending Republican while Georgia is trending Democratic at a rapid pace, (c) Democrats have been inching closer and closer to 50% in GA regardless of national environment over the past decade.

[MT Treasurer]

So what? Rural white turnout was low in that runoff too and the Democrats had a white Blue Dog as their nominee who did way better than Abrams in rural areas.

Except he really didn’t do way better than Abrams in rural areas. He even did a few points worse than her in some rural counties, and where he outperformed her, the difference was negligible.