GOP Gubernatorial Victory in California: Is it possible?

[SevenEleven]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

[SevenEleven]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

We all know that isn't going to happen.

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

We all know that isn't going to happen.

There’s a strong 55/45 percent chance it happens. You can call me out on my bluff if Republicans don’t break 40% by 2030.

[SevenEleven]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

We all know that isn't going to happen.

There’s a strong 55/45 percent chance it happens. You can call me out on my bluff if Republicans don’t break 40% by 2030.

40% is not a plurality, that's a minority.

Trump probably won about 38% of Hispanics this year nationwide.

Bush won over 40% of Hispanics in 2004 and still lost California by 10 when California whites were much more Republican than they are in 2020.

Its not happening, buddy. And the idea that Republicans could appeal to Latinos without losing any other part of their base in the process is quite laughable.

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO

Haha, what are you talking about?

What I stated above is literally what happened in this election and Biden cleared 63% while HRC was just over 61%.

You’re not gonna thinks it’s funny when Republicans win a plurality of the Hispanic vote and keep their white margins, reducing the Democrats to a minority, it’ll be a lovely occasion of which I look forward to.

We all know that isn't going to happen.

There’s a strong 55/45 percent chance it happens. You can call me out on my bluff if Republicans don’t break 40% by 2030.

40% is not a plurality, that's a minority.

Trump probably won about 38% of Hispanics this year nationwide.

Bush won over 40% of Hispanics in 2004 and still lost California by 10 when California whites were much more Republican than they are in 2020.

Its not happening, buddy. And the idea that Republicans could appeal to Latinos without losing any other part of their base in the process is quite laughable.

It’s a slow trend that will happen. Go look at my “next 5 president predictions” on why I disagree with the former statement.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why is it not possible for a Republican to be elected Governor of California.  Massachusetts has a Republican Governor.  Maryland has a Republican Governor.  Vermont has a Republican Governor.

All of those states are very white (with the exception of Maryland), secular, and ancestrally republican, and are nowhere near as big as California. false equivalency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Ask me again in 10 years tbh. No shot until coalitions shift nationally

[Red Wall]

Very unlikely. Republican wave year with an unpopular governor I'm still expecting a 12 point dem win. That's pretty much the outcome I'd expect from a Kevin Faulconer vs Gavin Newson election. He still should run cause a stronger R candidate helps them downballot. He could run as an independent too. Best case is perform like Carly Fiorina in 2010.

[Suburbia]

Not for now

Newsom will be reelected in 2022, but he will have a lower popular vote than in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not for now

Newsom will be reelected in 2022, but he will have a lower popular vote than in 2018

.
I seriously doubt that,Cox lost 63/37 percent, Rs want that to happen due to Reapportionment

Cox doesn't bring anything new

[John Dule]

I miss Arnie