NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Devils30]

Might as well put out my thoughts about State Senate races.

Safe R:
LD1 (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland)
LD9 (Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean)
LD10 (Ocean)
LD12 (Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean)
LD13 (Monmouth)
LD23 (Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren)
LD24 (Morris, Sussex, Warren)
LD26 (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
LD30 (Monmouth, Ocean)
LD40 (Bergen, Essex, Morris, Passaic)

Likely R:
LD25 (Morris, Somerset). Incumbent Senator Tony Bucco (R) was appointed to this seat in 2019 after his father, Senator Anthony Bucco, died in office. The younger Bucco won a special election by 9 points even as Biden carried the district by a similar margin. This district is much more Republican downballot, so he should be fine.
LD39 (Bergen, Passaic). Long-serving Senator Gerry Cardinale (R) died in February, and was replaced by then-Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi, a rising star in the NJ GOP. Biden won this district narrowly, but Schepisi is a proven vote-getter and it is more Republican downballot.

Lean R:
LD21 (Morris, Somerset, Union). Although Trump is very unpopular in this wealthy Romney-Clinton-Biden suburban district, it is still willing to vote for moderate Republicans at the state level. Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. is retiring and will probably run for Congress again, so Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R) will be running to replace him. His Democratic opponent will be Roselle Park mayor Joe Signorello (D), who is certainly a credible candidate. But Jon is a proven vote-getter with a long record of winning in the district, and managed to survive even in the Trump era. He should be considered a favorite for now.

Tossup:
LD2 (Atlantic). Senator Chris Brown (R) is retiring in this Atlantic City-based district, which has long been one of the most competitive in the state. It's the battle of Italians named Vince, as Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo (D) is running against former Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). Should be a close and exciting race.
LD8 (Atlantic, Burlington, Camden). This South Jersey Clinton-Biden district has not actually elected a Democrat since the 1970s. Senator Dawn Addiego (D) had been continuously reelected as a Republican, but switched parties in January 2019. Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield (R), who served for over 16 years as Burlington County Sheriff, is taking her on. Both women have long histories in this area, and the race will be very competitive.

Lean D:
LD11 (Monmouth). Senator Vin Gopal (D), the youngest member of the Senate, was first elected in 2017, beating Senator Jen Beck (R) in an upset. Gopal is considered a rising star, and will face businesswoman Lori Annetta (R). This is still a fairly competitive district, and Gopal, though favored, can't quite rest easy.
LD16 (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset). Jack Ciattarelli once represented this district in the State Assembly. It used to be pretty Republican, but has shifted hard left in recent years, particularly after Princeton was added in 2011. But it is not totally averse to electing Republicans, as retiring Senator Kip Bateman (R) won in 2017. Bateman is retiring after having had heart surgery, so Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker (D) is seeking a promotion against former Congressman Mike Pappas (R). Zwicker should be considered somewhat favored, but he can't take it for granted. Especially if Jack happens to provide a favorite son boost.

Likely D:
LD3 (Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem). This working class South Jersey district is the only Trump district held by a Democrat in the state. That Democrat happens to be Senate President Steve Sweeney, a very powerful man with ties to the South Jersey machine. Republicans have tried to beat him multiple times, but never really come close. He'll most likely be fine, but given that Trump won here, I wouldn't say it's completely safe.
LD38 (Bergen, Passaic). This was formerly one of the most competitive districts in the state. It has trended blue in recent years, but it is not overwhelmingly so. The Assembly members had a somewhat closer-than-expected race in 2019, so a Republican upset isn't out of the question. That said, Senator Joe Lagana (D) should still be a favorite over businessman Richard Garcia (R).

Safe D:
LD4 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD5 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD6 (Burlington, Camden)
LD7 (Burlington)
LD14 (Mercer, Middlesex)
LD15 (Hunterdon, Mercer)
LD17 (Middlesex, Somerset)
LD18 (Middlesex)
LD19 (Middlesex)
LD20 (Union)
LD22 (Middlesex, Somerset, Union)
LD27 (Essex, Morris)
LD28 (Essex)
LD29 (Essex)
LD31 (Hudson)
LD32 (Bergen, Hudson)
LD33 (Hudson)
LD34 (Essex, Passaic)
LD35 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD36 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD37 (Bergen)

Overall, I have Republicans favored in 13 races and Democrats favored in 25, with two tossups.

Frankly, Trump's loss was just about the best thing that could have happened to New Jersey Republicans. Things could have gotten really ugly if he was still president.

Generally agree but I think 16 is gone for the GOP. Biden won that district by over 20% and Zwicker is well known. Ancestral Republicans can only do so much.

[Devils30]

Here's my prediction as of now:

Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

I know that Somerset County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in downballot races-and was a Republican stronghold at the presidential level prior to 2008-but I'm not sure if it will go Republican this year. Biden won it with more than 60% of the vote, and presidential polarization has begun to heavily affect downballot races now. However, I do see Ciattarelli winning Morris County, which Biden only won by 4% and which still has a substantial number of moderate R-leaning voters.

Yeah, I think Somerset is just about gone for the GOP.

Murphy will do better in Somerset than Gloucester.

[Devils30]

If the race really is single-digits, and it seems to be, I'm interested in in the down-ballot races, particularly the 16th.

Have to think Democratic chances in the 2nd and 8th were riding on a Murphy landslide (considering they didn't even win them in his first win, an actual landslide). The 16th might still flip D due to trends, but then it's Ciattarelli's own district, so maybe he can hold them off for one more cycle. Looking past that, the 11th is the only other place I can see a seat flipping. The 14th and 38th both ran close to the state in 2017 and though the 14th may be trending slightly R, I don't see enough movement unless Ciattarelli is actually winning the state.

Plus ça change is always the name of the game in New Jersey. You can count the incumbents who have lost this millennia on your hands.

I think the 16th is as good as gone for the GOP. Just is a poor fit for this version of the party and Pappas is way too far to the right for a 60-38 Biden seat.

I am curious if the Rs make more gains in the Latino areas around NYC, even if they do poorly in the suburbs. Ironically this could get Dems a win in 9/12 CD's even if it's like a 11% Murphy win.