NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciattarelli says GOP and white people need to stop saying "All Lives Matter"

The assemblyman also suggested moving away from criticisms of Black-led social movements that have often proven a target for Republicans nationally.

“As Republicans, we need to get away from All Lives Matter and things of that nature,” McClellan said. “If somebody’s going to say to be ‘Black Lives Matter,’ the answer should be yes. When they say ‘Do Blue Lives Matter?’ The answer should be yes.”

Black voters have overwhelmingly backed Democratic candidates nationally for most of the last century. No Republican presidential candidate has won more than 13% of Black vote since 1968, and there’s been little departure from that trend at the state level.

Ciattarelli wants to combat the view, elevated by sects of his party over the past four years, that the GOP has little interest in the problems faced by Black voters.

“As a Republican Party that believes in the individual, I’ve always qualified that to also say that doesn’t mean we’re not our brothers’ and sisters’ keeper,” he said. “We don’t want people thinking the Republican Party believes so strongly in the individual that we’re going to leave folks behind that have been marginalized or disadvantaged.”

Though he hedged on whether he would seek out a woman or person of color to run as his lieutenant governor, Ciattarelli said he’d lend some focus to recruiting diverse down-ballot candidates.

“I joined the Republican Party because I always found it to be the more diverse party, diversity of mind, diversity of thought. The party of Lincoln,” he said. “We have hard work cut out for us in making the Republican Party less white, more Black, more Brown and I think more female, so certainly those things factor greatly into who it is that we’re recruiting.”

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-looks-to-expand-outreach-to-black-voters/

Ironically, Ciattarelli's GOP opponent, Hirsh Singh is very anti-BLM for a South Asian candidate........
https://www.hirshsingh.com/

That's very interesting, but I doubt that it will work to his benefit in an election against Murphy. I mean, let's be real, this is the absolute bare minimum that a Republican can do to court black voters. He can't seriously expect to win over a record number of them just for saying this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

Crime and taxes didn't work for Trump or Kean.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

Crime and taxes didn't work for Trump or Kean.

It could. Every year is different. I think Kean will win next year's rematch anyway, Malinowski is vulnerable to defeat....

Murphy will win by 10 points at least....

Depending how the districts are redrawn, Kean could indeed beat Malinowski if he becomes the fall guy in exchange for Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill getting safer districts; as I think is possible, especially with Malinowski's ethical issues that have recently come to light. Or perhaps he'll run in Bonnie Watson Coleman's new district if she decides to retire. I would begrudgingly be fine with that though, better Kean than Hirsch Singh or someone similarly unhinged if New Jersey absolutely has to have another Republican representative.

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

He is only a "moderate" because he acknowledged that Biden won the election. Other than that he is still your generic Republican of today, which means he is still pretty far right in most other respects.

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

He is only a "moderate" because he acknowledged that Biden won the election. Other than that he is still your generic Republican of today, which means he is still pretty far right in most other respects.

But he is pro-choice and he has a suburban appeal.....he could flip Somerset or even middle class towns in Middlesex...

The GOP primary indicated otherwise.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Allen is a older woman, she has experience and she is moderate. Ciattarelli is probably to the right of Allen, ideologically.

Allen was the female moderate choice for Republicans in 2002 when she ran for U.S. Senate.

Allen may be too moderate for the base!!!

She is for equal pay!!! RINO!!!

Someone like Allen is not acceptable to the Hirsh Singhs and Marsha Blackburns of the world!!!

They will lose to Murphy, however.

You're overestimating the relevance of Lieutenant Governor picks in our elections. Interestingly though, in the completely unlikely circumstance that Ciatarelli won, we still wouldn't have had a male Lieutenant Governor yet.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is all set: Ciattarelli-Allen for the Republicans and Murphy-Oliver for the Democrats.

Murphy wins by 5-15 points, and he gets his second term.

Who will win Morris and Somerset? Can Murphy flip Morris?

Murphy will win Somerset County. probably not by as much as Biden though, that may be nearly impossible to replicate. I'm still in disbelief that it voted to the left of Bergen in 2020!

Morris will probably back Ciatarelli in the end by the low single digits. The more affluent New Jersey suburbanites seem to make distinctions between local, state, and national elections; going off of how 2019 went and the typically whiter, more educated turnout that our state sees in off-year elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

Meanwhile, Murphy going viral with this from yesterday. It's not even like there is a GOV campaign going on lol.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1422999259876560896

This sounds like something a Midwestern Governor would say, for some reason, to me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

It's his home county. If Murphy is not going to win his home county, Ciattarelli could......

I still don't see it. Home counties don't really translate often in certain races. Monmouth and Somerset are very different places, and both are trending Democratic, one much faster than the other.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sorry to double-post, but I just saw a  Ciatarelli ad. He is running on taxes, as one would expect from a New Jersey Republican. It's probably the best move for him, like it was for Guadagno, but I doubt it will be enough to overcome the incumbency, cash, and party machine advantage Murphy has. How well he does, as I keep insisting, will probably depend on who turns out in November. It will probably be a 12 point loss on the low end, and a 15 points loss on the higher end.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

The country is not as interventionist as it used to be, even with Republicans. And in what way is the New Jersey Governor's race relevant to national foreign policy? Not only that but I doubt Afghanistan will be on anyone's minds anymore by November, barring some sort of 9/11 caliber terrorist attack occurring. That's the only way the Afghanistan withdrawal truly harms Biden and the Democratic Party in the long-term.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

The country is not as interventionist as it used to be, even with Republicans. And in what way is the New Jersey Governor's race relevant to national foreign policy? Not only that but I doubt Afghanistan will be on anyone's minds anymore by November, barring some sort of 9/11 caliber terrorist attack occurring. That's the only way the Afghanistan withdrawal truly harms Biden and the Democratic Party in the long-term.

If that's the case, Mark Earley in Virginia and Bret Schundler in New Jersey should have won their governor's races post-9/11 when the GOP started to gain their 2001-02 edge, but they did not. Candidate quality matters.

Ciattarelli could win Somerset, he is more likely to win Morris. He really needs to win Bergen County, a major bellwether and Burlington County, the new bellwether in NJ politics.

It's hard to call any New Jersey county a bellwether. Bergen certainly has the most population, but it is not voting Republican at all. Those two counties going for Christie were only because his re-election was always guaranteed. They're nowhere close to being swingy. The only swing county in this election is probably Morris.

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.

I think it was a matter of turnout more than anything, especially with how obvious Murphy's win appeared to be. And that may be the great equalizer for Ciatarelli this year too. I've long maintained that about New jersey elections. Our off-year turnout is usually abysmal and benefits Republicans. I just think even that happening can't overcome Murphy's relative popularity, cash advantage, and machine advantage. At worst Murphy probably wins by 12, and by 15 or so at best.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/CBSPhilly/status/1431422469135638533

Interesting. I haven't even heard about this before. The only thing I'm seeing out of Ciatarelli's campaign is that internet ad where Murph says that if you are concerned about high taxes "New Jersey is not your state" which he somehow interprets to mean "if you don't like it you should leave!"

[Progressive Pessimist]

You guys are very wrongly assuming that enough undecideds watched the debate, or cared about it, to make any sort of difference that will favor Ciatarelli. Murphy will win no matter what, and the margin will be determined but turnout. Ciatarelli's only chance to keep Murphy at his floor (which I think is 12%) is for turnout to benefit the GOP, as tends to happen in our off-year elections, to be fair. But even then, Murphy is still fairly popular, especially on his COVID response.

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli didn't come across Trumpian in the debate, sans his comments on vaccines.

Well, that's probably why Murphy is utilizing the campaign he is, as you see it. It's the California recall strategy where they're going to win no matter what, but to avoid overconfidence and to increase the margin Murphy seems to be attempting to incite fear of Ciatarelli as a Trumpist in sheep's clothing. He was trying to be fairly Trumpy in the primary, to be fair. The only way he wasn't was because he dared to admit that the 2020 election was fair and legitimate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You guys are very wrongly assuming that enough undecideds watched the debate, or cared about it, to make any sort of difference that will favor Ciatarelli. Murphy will win no matter what, and the margin will be determined but turnout. Ciatarelli's only chance to keep Murphy at his floor (which I think is 12%) is for turnout to benefit the GOP, as tends to happen in our off-year elections, to be fair. But even then, Murphy is still fairly popular, especially on his COVID response.

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli didn't come across Trumpian in the debate, sans his comments on vaccines.

Well, that's probably why Murphy is utilizing the campaign he is, as you see it. It's the California recall strategy where they're going to win no matter what, but to avoid overconfidence and to increase the margin Murphy seems to be attempting to incite fear of Ciatarelli as a Trumpist in sheep's clothing. He was trying to be fairly Trumpy in the primary, to be fair. The only way he wasn't was because he dared to admit that the 2020 election was fair and legitimate.

But the difference here is that Elder was unabashedly pro-Trump, Ciattarelli has mostly returned to his 2017 self. He stepped up the Trumpyness earlier this year because of the influx of South Jersey looneys (cough, JVD, cough) who were changing the power dynamic of the NJ-GOP away from the North Jersey Kean-Bramnick types.

It'll be interesting to see what the state GOP will be like regardless if Ciattarelli wins or loses, as well as how state assembly races play out.

I'm not saying that Ciatarelli is necessarily an Elder or Trumplike figure, just that it seems to be what Murphy and his campaign are trying to paint him as in an attempt to energize Democratic voters who are receptive to that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

How would you describe New Jersey politics?

The state is one big suburb. Yes, there are more conservative whites and more liberal whites, but I'd say most of the NJ ~base~ is very moderate, and Murphy has succeeded IMO of bringing a "moderate" presentation to a lot of "liberal" policies.

Exactly. Murphy is not Corzine nor he is he Menendez. And at the barest minimum I expect him to do better than the latter statewide.

Also, to address a point I've seen made by Republicans and reinforce the one I made just before, just because New Jersey hasn't re-elected a Democratic Governor in decades doesn't mean that pattern will hold just because. The same thing ended in Virginia in 2013, and will end this year. Every pattern is true until it isn't.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447957174324445190

Incredible ad lmao

That's pretty f***ing funny, but what might be more striking to me is that there are apparently some New Jersey residents out there who don't know who Ciatarelli is. I guess they aren't being inundated with his ads before every Youtube video like I am.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Honestly, it's a little surprising that Guadagno only lost by 14 considering she had to deal with a president and an outgoing governor who were both extremely unpopular.

She ended up running an okay campaign under the circumstances-laser-focusing on property taxes and also likely benefiting from low turnout in that election, which had even lower turnout than the 2013 election. I suppose because elections were foregone conclusions for the party that ultimately won them. If that's the case this time, Ciatarelli can benefit from that too. That I think is the real factor that could make this a weaker victory for Murphy, not so much because Ciatarelli is some sort of electoral titan who is running a stellar campaign.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

It's going to be a more Republican year, but on the other hand, in 2017, Murphy was seen a rich guy with no substance. NJ was hit hard, but Murphy has been popular throughout the pandemic, though his approvals have dropped from their highs in the spring of 2020. He'll probably underperform Biden's 2020 numbers, but 4-5 points seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

I agree. Murphy was initially tarred as "Corzine 2.0" but in practice that does not seem to be the case, and he is still fairly popular overall.

My prediction is that he'll be re-elected by 11 or 12 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Following the Star-Ledger's back-handed barely-endorsement of Murphy, the largest newspaper in Hudson County (a sister publication to the Star-Ledger also owned by Advance Media) tells voters to abstain:

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1451531777529552926

I'm really curious where on the doll Murphy touched New Jersey newspapers for them to be acting as passive-aggressive they seem to be.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So I'm still being assailed with Ciatarelli ads on Youtube but he's got some new ones now. And one of them is particularly interesting. He says: "President Biden is doing a great job in Washington. But Governor Murphy here in New Jersey? Not so much."

I don't want to read into this ad as more than him acknowledging the reality of the safe D state that New Jersey is, but I also can't help but wonder if Murphy has been more successful than it seems in tying Ciatarelli to Trump and he is attempting to counter that. It's just such a bizarre thing to hear any Republicans say these days, in an ad or otherwise.

[Progressive Pessimist]

GOP turnout is always increased here in off-year elections. As much as I still underestimated how bad last night was going to be, I always anticipated this possibility to some degree. In my defense, I made that point in this megathread and others. Our state hates incumbent Democrats, we just do, historically. Yet Murphy will still hold a great accomplishment of actually being the first Democratic Governor re-elected in over forty years. I Am assuming that he'll win in the end (whenever that willbe) still. Calling that little factoid bittersweet is way too generous though. This was a f***ing s***show, and I really was hoping for at least some solace from my own state with hiw Virginia was looking. But we, as Democrats, can't even be afforded that these days. And it's probably going to get worse as this race will now likely attract the conspiracy, fraudit, and voter suppression attention.

You know, I've defended New Jersey from a lot if jokes and insults over the years on this website. But you all have my permission now to go Taylor Ham with ripping on us. Have at it because we now deserve it.

These state races don't always indicate much about federal ones. There are plenty of people who will vote one way at the state level but not the same at the federal level. Kentucky and Louisiana are a good example.

That is indeed true, and very much so in New Jersey. Our 2019 elections actually demonstrated this and probably should have been a warning for this year. It was a fairly good year for the Republicans (and probably what really inspired Van Drew to become a turncoat) and that was following their absolute wipeout in 2018 where there were federal elections. Hell. The very unpopular Menendez win that year probably entirely because the balance if the Senate would have shifted if people voted with their hearts for Hugin. Voters are capable if discerning the differences between local, federal, and statewide races; for better wnd worse...usually worse...

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

"If taxes are your issue, then we're probably not your state" was sort of taken out of context.

Murphy was explaining to a business group that NJ is a high tax, high value state (which to an extent is true) and that it's not going to be able to compete with state like Florida or Texas. Ciattarelli ads made it seem like Murphy cut off voters' concerns. It was quite disingenuous.

Also, I know the average voter doesn't care about facts, but here is what's interesting.
Property taxes rose 18.6% during Christie's (R) first term but only 6% during Corzine (D) and 4% during Murphy (D).

https://gothamist.com/news/every-four-years-new-jersey-its-property-taxes-stupid

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2013/05/13-05-06-net-property-tax-increase-much-higher-under-christie-than-corzine/

I highly doubt that Ciattarelli will be able to cut property taxes. I wish NJ voters saw that lower property taxes is not an automatic thing just because they elect a Republican.

You are 100% correct. But the problem is that Murphy didn't make that case. He didn't defend himself from S***arelli's accusations or make much of his own case really ir even cite many of his accomplishments.

 His campaign was actually worse than McAuliffe's, if you ask me. Say what you will about his unfocused campaign, but McAuliffe did not seem to take his race for granted as Murphy seemed to. He let S***tarelli dominate the airwaves and define him. And what ads Murphy did have were fairly generic, some were decent, but just didn't generate the enthusiasm he needed to inspire in the foreboding national environment that formed. Now, to be fair, polling indicated it would have been a comfortable win for him, even if he did underperform Biden or even Menendez quite a bit. But I am of the philosophy that one should always run a campaign assuming you're losing no matter what to blunt any potential voter apathy or complacency. Murphy didn't do that and cost his party in every other respect by overestimating our public so much. F***ing Bridgegate Bridget Kelly is now our county clerk, for s***'s sake! Though maybe with Sweeney losing it will all be worth it. It would be hilarious if that was Murphy's real intent the entire time.