NJ-GOV 2021 megathread (user search)
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  NJ-GOV 2021 megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ-GOV 2021 megathread  (Read 49480 times)
CookieDamage
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« on: May 27, 2020, 02:21:22 AM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.

Callahan Harrison teaches at my former university. Never took a class of hers tho.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2021, 02:22:09 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2021, 02:50:17 PM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

Somerset is not flipping. It's likelier Murphy carries Somerset by an Obama 2012 margin and ends up picking up Morris.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2021, 12:11:51 PM »

Just voted in a republican party of union county and it was jam packed.. my friend who lives in a dem part of NJ says he was only voter #40 of the day... who knows what will happen but think it'll be close

Source: dude trust me
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2021, 02:12:36 PM »

I think a Murphy win from 8 - 12% is realistic.  I'd say 10.85%
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2021, 04:15:16 PM »

For those who like to extrapolate way too much from the weather, I can verify that it's been a dreadful day in my pocket of South Jersey (Gloucester).

I voted about two hours ago. The poll workers said turnout has been high there.

Yeah the weather sucks rn, but it's certainly not prohibitive to voting.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2021, 08:30:44 PM »

Murphy win seems likely but not certain.

Everyone's been sleeping on this one but if Murphy somehow loses too, that would be 10 times worse than Youngkin winning in VA.

I don't think it's at all likely however.

That has like a 2% chance of happening. There's been ZERO momentum behind Ciatarelli.
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2021, 08:36:30 PM »

The vote is barely in and yall are drawing conclusions. Atlas, never change.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2021, 08:43:31 PM »

Any chance of an upset here or is that too unlikely?

I still think it's not very likely since we have so little of Essex, Bergen, Hudson, and Union out
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2021, 08:47:16 PM »

What’s going on in Cape May County? I thought it was solid R but it’s D with 100% in?

I read somewhere it's likely a system glitch.  But don't quote me on dat. 

It must be considering that it's WAY below 2017 turnout.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2021, 08:48:03 PM »

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

Murphy literally one of the most progressive governors out there, stop it.
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2021, 08:54:38 PM »

Ciatarelli lead bolstered by the fact only Monmouth and Ocean are (nearly) done counting. Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union are barely starting, and Camden is only at 50% with Burlington barely starting as well.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2021, 08:56:57 PM »

Huh, another mainstream, Pharma-bought candidate underperforming massively.

This is what happens when a party locks out progressives meaningfully from power on a local level, as “moderate” governance is not good governance.

Murphy is literally one of the most "progressive" elected officials in the country, on paper and in speeches, and isn't bought by anyone (because he's a rich self-funded banker, which brings its own questions). Sanders literally campaigned with him last week.

It's almost as if PSOL is either trolling or so deluded by justice dem talking points that's the only thing he says now.
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2021, 08:57:43 PM »

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

But what if Ciattarelli wins Bergen...

Trolling.

Bergen was Biden +16, not out of the question for Ciatarelli to win. Ciatarelli is blowing out Trump in Monmouth and Hunterdon, exceeding by over 16%

The caveat being that Hunterdon and Monmouth have been republican strongholds up and down the ballot for years, while Bergen has been much more Dem friendly.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2021, 09:31:13 PM »

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

Exactly, if they haven't this is all a red mirage.
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2021, 09:33:22 PM »

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

It definitely hasn't. Mail ballots weren't even due until today, those will probably pad Murphy's margin a bit in the end.

Can we expect those to be counted and tabulated soon, or...?
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2021, 09:38:44 PM »

Camden county 59-40 for Murphy
Bergen county (my home) 55-45 for Ciatarelli

These two results are just cringes if you're a Democrat. I don't know for sure what % of the outstanding votes are by mail or in person, but I highly doubt it is because it mostly counted in-person votes first.

There is a lot left in Essex and Passaic (Biden won by 56 and 17 points, respectively) but how much Murphy will underperform there is the question. If I assume that he will underperform there by similar margin, then Murphy will probably, even very likely lose.

Where are you getting these conclusions?
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2021, 09:39:52 PM »

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Not what Kornacki said. He said all in Essex County counted so far is mail, with lots of same day left. Meanwhile in the counties that are done counting or near it, Ciattarelli is hitting his targets.

Just b/c Essex counted their mail ins does not mean the rest of the counties have.

Yes, it seems like Somerset and Essex started with VBM while Bergen did not.
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2021, 09:49:19 PM »

Murphy closed the gap in Bergen
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2021, 10:35:57 PM »

If Bergen does swing this hard right, Gottheimer is toast
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2021, 10:46:54 PM »


Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2021, 10:50:35 PM »


Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?

No. Phil Murphy won Somerset in 2017. Now he's losing it by close to 10 points.

Oh dear
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2021, 12:15:45 AM »

Pretty sure this isn't the booster shot discussion thread.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2021, 09:32:09 AM »

Humiliating result
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2021, 10:27:37 AM »

If Dems can barely win in a D+17 state, Dems are screwed in PA
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