NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[MATTROSE94]

Murphy survives by a hair

Do you think that Phil Murphy is going to reimplement a statewide lockdown if he is re-elected? That idea seems to be in play a bit now.

No it doesn’t. Why would he do that lol

COVID cases are trending upward in New Jersey and there are still some federal funds left to cover until the middle of 2022 the potential loss of revenue caused by a statewide lockdown.

[Orwell]

At the very least some polls showed Youngkin ahead… absolutely no NJ polls showed a race this close. How did they drop the ball so badly with polling this race?

Because anyone with a brain would have written this race off as an easy win. So we got complacent.

[wbrocks67]

If I'm reading this correctly, neither those 23K that are "counted" or 5K that are "not counted" are included in the statewide total

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455871859434602500

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Both Sweeney and Murphy look like they'll survive unless I'm missing something

and the fact that both are likely to scrape by is just... something.

i mean Murphy will still be the first Dem re-elected in a long time, so there were headwinds that I think a lot of us didn't even realize, locally in NJ, even aside from the national stuff

NJ'ians have not liked re-electing incumbent Dems lol

 

[Mr. Matt]

If I'm reading this correctly, neither those 23K that are "counted" or 5K that are "not counted" are included in the statewide total

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455871859434602500

What a world to hear that Morris County's votes save the Democrat.

[Torie]

Why on earth would the counted votes on that sheet not be in the statewide totals? But yes, the words are incoherent, so who knows. Wildstein, you need to learn how to write before becoming a print reporter or whatever you are.

A most shocking result I must say. What on earth is going on? The Pub was invisible, generically cliched (the taxes are too high), soft on covid, and boring, while my impression was that Murphy was pleasant and competent. I wonder if our votes are counted yet. We put our VBM ballot envelops in a ballot drop box next to the Hoboken city hall 5 days ago. The at large council candidate slate that I like very much swept to victory.

[Blair]

There was a poll out last week showing a huge dip in Murphys lead- I think people often make the mistake of looking at the top line numbers rather than looking at the general trend of polls over weeks and months.

[Oryxslayer]

Why on earth would the counted votes on that sheet not be in the statewide totals? But yes, the words are incoherent, so who knows. Wildstein, you need to learn how to write before becoming a print reporter or whatever you are.

A most shocking result I must say. What on earth is going on? The Pub was invisible, generically cliched (the taxes are too high), soft on covid, and boring, while my impression was that Murphy was pleasant and competent. I wonder if our votes are counted yet. We put are VBM ballot envelops in a ballot drop box next to the Hoboken city hall 5 days ago. The at large council candidate slate that I like very much swept to victory.

Well its partially, as you note, a case of some of the most Blue votes across the state remaining uncounted at the moment. The final margin shouldn't be questionable, but it will be close - the 'bellwethers' point towards a +4/5 final result. Now why did it occur - well Biden has some very bad approvals, and the national environment is really bad for Dem's right now. Sometimes governor races can outrun defy their state's lean, but the baseline is still heavily dependent upon the national mood.

Real question is if numbers are so dependent on the national mood - Newsom Doing fine when Biden was doing Okay, now NJ/VA going bad when Biden approvals are bad - what the national mood will be in mid/late 2022.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why on earth would the counted votes on that sheet not be in the statewide totals? But yes, the words are incoherent, so who knows. Wildstein, you need to learn how to write before becoming a print reporter or whatever you are.

A most shocking result I must say. What on earth is going on? The Pub was invisible, generically cliched (the taxes are too high), soft on covid, and boring, while my impression was that Murphy was pleasant and competent. I wonder if our votes are counted yet. We put are VBM ballot envelops in a ballot drop box next to the Hoboken city hall 5 days ago. The at large council candidate slate that I like very much swept to victory.

Well its partially, as you note, a case of some of the most Blue votes across the state remaining uncounted at the moment. The final margin shouldn't be questionable, but it will be close - the 'bellwethers' point towards a +4/5 final result. Now why did it occur - well Biden has some very bad approvals, and the national environment is really bad for Dem's right now. Sometimes governor races can outrun defy their state's lean, but the baseline is still heavily dependent upon the national mood.

Real question is if numbers are so dependent on the national mood - Newsom Doing fine when Biden was doing Okay, now NJ/VA going bad when Biden approvals are bad - what the national mood will be in mid/late 2022.

Re:CA
- not even remotely close state - no point for (R) to vote
- Larry Elder
- D totally out-raised R

Even though, a 6 point swing from 2020 is a significant swing, which many non-red avatars tried to highlight.

[Roll Roons]

Regardless of the final result, looks like Jack almost certainly won NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-04, NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-11 and possibly NJ-06.

[ibagli]

At the very least some polls showed Youngkin ahead… absolutely no NJ polls showed a race this close. How did they drop the ball so badly with polling this race?

Assuming Trafalgar is doing real polls (there's still a part of me that's not 100% convinced), they had Murphy up 4 from 10/29 to 10/31. If this is right and Murphy ends up winning by around 3%, it would be pretty close to what Trafalgar had:

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1455786158613573634

[Orwell]

We may be under 180 seats in the House in 2023

[Person Man]

We may be under 180 seats in the House in 2023

I'd say we will be where we were in 2015. About 188 at the rate this has been tracing the 2010 cycle. Maybe we will be where we were in 1995. About 200.  Of course, you are right if things don't improve at all or get worse.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1455902560141905927?s=20

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455903514748760075?s=21

[Senator Incitatus]

Are NJ republicans likely to do the "stolen election" song and dance here, do we think?

Yes. NJ politics is notoriously corrupt and that didn’t stop happening or getting noticed all of a sudden.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

10-15 points swing from 2020. Not bad, not bad.

[Roll Roons]

GOP most likely gained 8 (!!!) Assembly seats while holding all of their own: https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/republicans-likely-to-pick-up-8-assembly-seats/

They've apparently picked up in LDs 2, 3, 11 and 16, which brings the balance to 44D-36R. 

[CookieDamage]

Humiliating result

[Ferguson97]

Dave has seen enough

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455903514748760075?s=21

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

To be sure, there is no exit polls in NJ? I'd love to see Biden's approval etc.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455905952234983426?s=20

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455905952234983426?s=20

Sweeney sucks so I’m fine with this as long as we keep our majority

[lfromnj]

My favorite part about Sweeney is the teacher unions spent 5 million to beat him in 2017  and he got like 60%  and now a guy with $150 might beat him.

[Roll Roons]

Senate: Absolute worst case scenario for the GOP is that they break even, as they beat party switcher Dawn Addiego in LD 8.

But they'll most likely have a net gain. In addition to Sweeney, 11, 14 and 38 (D-held) and 16 (R-held) all looking very close and could conceivably go either way.