NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[LostFellow]

-snip-

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

Booster shots are less effective over time with each new jab. More isn't always better.

Do you have any evidence of this? I don't think people are suggesting indefinite annual covid booster shots, just large scale usage of them for vulnerable populations at this time—as vaccination rates slowly increase over time, covid numbers will finally drop to negligible levels (e.g. less than 100 deaths/day, less than 10 deaths/day, choose a metric). Booster shots would then likely no longer be necessary, or incorporated into the annual flu shot in some lighter dosage.

Some people are definitely suggesting it, Israel is on its 4th or 5th jab already and the booster is only effective for 6 months.

But here's some evidence that the effectiveness decreases over time

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/booster-shots-and-declining-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines-what-to-know

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/covid-booster-shots-data-shows-third-shots-not-appropriate-at-this-time-scientists-conclude.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02532-4

Also the dude who literally developed the mRNA vaccine has said this repeatedly

That's fair; there definitely are diminishing returns for booster shots (although I would argue the rate of diminishing is still quite low from reading the articles you linked).

I don't see how having booster shots available is bad in any sense though. If folks who are prone to respiratory disease or at high risk in general, let them take 6-month boosters while covid is still prevalent. I guess I don't think it's fair to tie booster shots to the sort of "never-ending pandemic" policies; the vast majority of people would both support availability of booster shots and understand the pandemic risk is drastically lower today (and will continue to diminish).

Edit: yeah kind of off topic. I don't think it's current covid policy driving the R surge. Mostly economic concerns imo.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murphy takes the lead on DDHQ

[kwabbit]

Murphy now ahead on DDHQ. Cumberland, Cape May have a decent amount left. Essex and Hudson might, but it's hard to know whether those percentages are accurate or not. Late VBM could decide this race, and very late VBM was R last year as we remember.

[Lief 🗽]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

[LostFellow]

Burlington dump on DDHQ flipping it to Murphy +5, and small Passaic batch flips it back to Murphy. Murphy now leading ~100 votes, and DDHQ vote reporting estimates probably allow Murphy to win by 1 point or more when this is over (I really hope I don't eat crow on this). Some of South Jersey still out, but Essex, Camden, and some of the other North Jersey counties should win out by quite a bit.

[Calthrina950]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

These policies are popular, but cultural issues and perceptions seem to predominate in the minds of voters, and the Democrats have been unable to effectively "sell" their policy agenda to the public. Moreover, that agenda has in many respects been distorted.

[Pericles]

Did Covid save Murphy? Of course, a no Covid world would be very different but I heard Murphy polled well on his Covid response.

[GALeftist]

Murphy takes the lead on DDHQ

Whew. Going to bed now. One admittedly rather small victory of the night in my opinion was that Murphy seems to have squeaked it out (KNOCK ON WOOD) *and* Sweeney is now gone (got beat by some no-name sacrificial lamb), which will likely more the New Jersey trifecta left.

[Ebowed]

Did Covid save Murphy? Of course, a no Covid world would be very different but I heard Murphy polled well on his Covid response.

It's more likely that lingering resentment over how he botched it made the race this close to begin with.

[Lief 🗽]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

These policies are popular, but cultural issues and perceptions seem to predominate in the minds of voters, and the Democrats have been unable to effectively "sell" their policy agenda to the public. Moreover, that agenda has in many respects been distorted.

Yeah, I mean, I don't doubt that if you picked ten random people off the street, a majority of people would actually say that they support $15 minimum wage or legalizing weed. And if they see a question to that effect on a ballot, usually they'll say Yes to it. But there doesn't seem to be much evidence that the popularity of those policies translates to politicians that support them. It doesn't seem to be a consideration in voters minds when they're deciding which human being to vote for.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

[Badger]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And in fairness, he made one of THE most disastrous late campaign gaffes in memory. Notably worse than McAuliffe's about education even.

[GALeftist]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

[Hammy]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

They vote on messaging and unfortunately the Dems have proven disastrous on this matter, and time and time again put little to no effort into selling their policies or defending them from right wing attack.

[Xing]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

They vote on messaging and unfortunately the Dems have proven disastrous on this matter, and time and time again put little to no effort into selling their policies or defending them from right wing attack.

Indeed, on this very forum, on this very night, we've had red avatars coming out of the woodwork to insist that it's morally wrong even to suggest that Democrats have a messaging problem or need a better way to respond to the national mood on sociocultural issues.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

This is why Bernie is better electorally than AOC. AOC seems like a whiny socially far-leftist whereas Bernie seems like an old angry dude who cares about people and wants to shake up the system.

[NOVA Green]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

Oh, I'm not mad, no need to chill. I'm just surprised. This came out of the left field.

No hate pack from my side....    we cool?

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455774178951450626?s=21

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

Oh, I'm not mad, no need to chill. I'm just surprised. This came out of the left field.

No hate pack from my side....    we cool?

Always was!
You are a great poster and I consider you a friend.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455778019549794304?s=21

[Crumpets]

Just a bit of perspective, at this point in the Obama presidency, Obama had a +9 net approval (compared to Biden's -8), and Democrats had just lost the New Jersey governorship by 3.6 points and the Virginia governorship by 17.3 points. Sure Virginia especially has shifted well to the left since 2009, but this is hardly the end of the world, even if 2022 will probably feel a lot like tonight.

[NOVA Green]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

This is why Bernie is better electorally than AOC. AOC seems like a whiny socially far-leftist whereas Bernie seems like an old angry dude who cares about people and wants to shake up the system.

Quoted for Truth!!!!

[Alben Barkley]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

This is why Bernie is better electorally than AOC. AOC seems like a whiny socially far-leftist whereas Bernie seems like an old angry dude who cares about people and wants to shake up the system.

Quoted for Truth!!!!

Bernie is also 100 years old, even older than Biden. It’s time to let him go and move on.

[NOVA Green]

So Ciattarelli still up 1.7k votes.

Assuming this will likely flip, but anybody have opinions on the margins?