NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[NYDem]

FFS if Democrats lose this race because they wrote it off as a win, we might as well disband the party.

[Mr. Smith]

Ciabatta still at it...

...Sorry, Ciabatta is much more catchy.

I'll see if he's won tomorrow before I leave for work.

[compucomp]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455738055776772099?s=20

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455736858164572165?s=20

The plot thickens

Slightly off topic but Nate Cohn is by far my favorite of the Twitter forecaster guys. Pretty much nailed VA-GOV from the outset.

[Oryxslayer]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

Most of the vote out according to DDHQ will be from Biden counties, and most will be mail/early - excluding Salem of course. We know where this is going, it'll just take time and be much closer than expected.

[soundchaser]

If Harry Enten is right about mail-in votes, I assume Murphy would still win. But this is an embarrassment either way.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455736858164572165?s=20

The plot thickens

Slightly off topic but Nate Cohn is by far my favorite of the Twitter forecaster guys. Pretty much nailed VA-GOV from the outset.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1455738870578954242?s=20


Looks like even some red counties havn't counted their mail votes.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If Harry Enten is right about mail-in votes, I assume Murphy would still win. But this is an embarrassment either way.

Yeah, NJ shouldn't have been this close - even if Murphy wins.

Democrats should be ashamed and embarrassed of themselves.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Essex drop narrowed the Italian's lead to 18K.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Someone link the song 'Woke Up This Morning'.

No particular reason.

[compucomp]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

Most of the vote out according to DDHQ will be from Biden counties, and most will be mail/early - excluding Salem of course. We know where this is going, it'll just take time and be much closer than expected.

Yeah, then it looks like Murphy is still on track to win. PredictIt has moved towards him, 90-10 now.

Still, he's not going to win by much, and that disappoints me since I thought he was doing a good job. Either there was a lot of hidden anger toward his COVID policies or the issue of taxes really resonated. Honestly I can't tell about the taxes since NY taxes are even higher and I pay those since I work in NYC. Perhaps it was a protest vote in general.

[BoiseBoy]

Someone link the song 'Woke Up This Morning'.

No particular reason.

[omar04]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

Most of the vote out according to DDHQ will be from Biden counties, and most will be mail/early - excluding Salem of course. We know where this is going, it'll just take time and be much closer than expected.

A couple of Congressmen might be worried for next year depending on how the results break down.

[CookieDamage]

If Bergen does swing this hard right, Gottheimer is toast

[Oryxslayer]

Said cache in Essex just dropped, closing the gap to 18K.

Most of the vote out according to DDHQ will be from Biden counties, and most will be mail/early - excluding Salem of course. We know where this is going, it'll just take time and be much closer than expected.

Yeah, then it looks like Murphy is still on track to win. PredictIt has moved towards him, 90-10 now.

Still, he's not going to win by much, and that disappoints me since I thought he was doing a good job. Either there was a lot of hidden anger toward his COVID policies or the issue of taxes really resonated. Honestly I can't tell about the taxes since NY taxes are even higher and I pay those since I work in NYC. Perhaps it was a protest vote in general.

I think it's more the cause we are looking at national environment presently around even or R+1, which means 8+ point margin decreases from 2020. People on twitter already noted how Youngkin appears to be the beneficiary of a universal swing in most of the state, rather than any consistent concentrated gains.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1455740671780872196

So literally, let's go Brandon!

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455736858164572165?s=20

The plot thickens

Slightly off topic but Nate Cohn is by far my favorite of the Twitter forecaster guys. Pretty much nailed VA-GOV from the outset.

I always keep a tab open with Cohn and Wasserman's Twitter accounts on every election night.

[Big Abraham]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

[CookieDamage]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?

[kwabbit]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?

No, it flipped after some e-day votes came in presumably. Now 54-44 Jack

[Big Abraham]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?

No. Phil Murphy won Somerset in 2017. Now he's losing it by close to 10 points.

[CookieDamage]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?

No. Phil Murphy won Somerset in 2017. Now he's losing it by close to 10 points.

Oh dear

[H. Ross Peron]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.