NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[kwabbit]

There's a Guido revolt against carpetbagger Massachusetts Murphy. Bergen is looking bad for Murphy lol. Honestly, maybe Jersey Jack was a good branding and NJ voters are annoyed with NYC finance executives carpetbagging into our state.

[Orwell]

Is Murphy actually going to lose?

Maybe maybe not baby

[Alben Barkley]

It's times like these I wish we still had THE NEEDLE

[LimoLiberal]

Places where Ciattarelli will net votes:

Sussex - ~12,000
Warren - ~9,000
Somerset - ~8,000
Cumberland - ~5,000
Salem - ~3,000

That's 32,000 net votes there on top of the 56,000 vote lead.

Going to PredictIt right now.

[CookieDamage]

Murphy closed the gap in Bergen

[S019]

Essex is only 20% in and Hudson is 50% in, I want that to come in more before I declare Murphy's campaign to be over.

[BoiseBoy]

If Murphy loses we all know who is really to blame here...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Murphy loses we all know who is really to blame here...

But unironically, the Italian vote has been trending significantly R the last few cycles.

[Alben Barkley]

Man I really hope Murphy wins because I don't want to have to spell the other guy's name every time I want to talk about the NJ governor.

[Asta]

Man I really hope Murphy wins because I don't want to have to spell the other guy's name every time I want to talk about the NJ governor.

I thought I was the only one. 

[One Term Floridian]

Wow RIP Democratic Party if we lose NJ too… hey at least we won’t hit 200+ pages here

[Oryxslayer]

Kornaki just said the channels calls said Bergen has no mail in, and are unlikely to report it tonight. No mail in Burlington either.

Ignoring that though, the red mirage should vanish just by the 70K D eday votes that should be net by Essex.

[compucomp]

Ignoring that though, the red mirage should vanish just by the 70K D eday votes that should be net by Essex.

If all early and mail votes in Essex County have already been counted, and there are just 70K election day votes there to be counted, then Dems have some severe turnout issues in NJ which have opened the door for Ciattarelli to win. That would mean that there are 110K total votes in Essex and there are at least 200K total votes in Ocean, while they had about the same number of total votes in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

Ignoring that though, the red mirage should vanish just by the 70K D eday votes that should be net by Essex.

If all early and mail votes in Essex County have already been counted, and there are just 70K election day votes there to be counted, then Dems have some severe turnout issues in NJ which have opened the door for Ciattarelli to win. That would mean that there are 110K total votes in Essex and there are at least 200K total votes in Ocean, while they had about the same number of total votes in 2020.

70K net. And that's just a guess from 2017 numbers. Also Passaic is doing the same thing as Essex.

Murphy's going to win but its not going to be a landslide unless the votes that emerge later on are really blue. Someone said online it reminds them on SC-05: a race that ended up close as the other contest got infinitely more attention.  

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455735518910681090?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455734792092143616?s=20

[kwabbit]

Ignoring that though, the red mirage should vanish just by the 70K D eday votes that should be net by Essex.

If all early and mail votes in Essex County have already been counted, and there are just 70K election day votes there to be counted, then Dems have some severe turnout issues in NJ which have opened the door for Ciattarelli to win. That would mean that there are 110K total votes in Essex and there are at least 200K total votes in Ocean, while they had about the same number of total votes in 2020.

70K net. And that's just a guess from 2017 numbers. Also Passaic is doing the same thing as Essex.

I doubt Passaic will net that much. It was Biden +16, right now Murphy +10, if anything the remainder of votes might favor Ciattarelli.

[Continential]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

[compucomp]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

I think he's probably still favored, as he has large caches of votes in urban areas outstanding particularly in Essex County/Newark, but there is definitely a reasonable chance he loses.

[JGibson]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

MSNBC is still characterizing the race as TETC, with Murphy leading.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Man I really hope Murphy wins because I don't want to have to spell the other guy's name every time I want to talk about the NJ governor.

     Join the cool kids and call him Tortellini.

[Asta]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

I wouldn't say probably yet, but Murphy is a slight underdog based on my spreadsheet estimates. If I was going to bet real money, I would put mine on Ciatarelli.

[compucomp]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

I wouldn't say probably yet, but Murphy is a slight underdog based on my spreadsheet estimates. If I was going to bet real money, I would put mine on Ciatarelli.

PredictIt has it at 70-30 Murphy, FWIW.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Man I really hope Murphy wins because I don't want to have to spell the other guy's name every time I want to talk about the NJ governor.

     Join the cool kids and call him Tortellini.

gabagool

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I did not expect Tortellini to be ahead... Wow!

[Alben Barkley]

I'm very confused, is Murphy likely going to win or will he probably lose?

I wouldn't say probably yet, but Murphy is a slight underdog based on my spreadsheet estimates. If I was going to bet real money, I would put mine on Ciatarelli.

PredictIt has it at 70-30 Murphy, FWIW.

That really isn't worth much of anything lol