NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Saturday (10/30) Early Vote
DEMS 14,215 (44.4%)
REPS 9,234 (28.8%)
UNA 8,404 (26.2%)
= 32,021

Total Early In Person Vote (10/23-30)
DEMS 76,323 (44.6%)
REPS 54,824 (32.0%)
UNA 39,157 (22.9%)
= 171,070

VBM update
DEMS 290,707 (64.4%)
REPS 87,366 (19.4%)
UNA 72,144 (16.0%)
= 451,323

Total VBM + Early In Person
DEMS 367,030 (59.0%)
REPS 142,190 (22.8%)
UNA 111,301 (17.9%)
= 622,593

[nomoredemocoups]

Phil Murphy loses

[jamestroll]

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

Not as much intrigue and not nearly as much sensation or "scandal".  

(No Non-Swing Voter: Jersey Shore Edition, either )

If the margin is within five, though, you can bet that it'll be a show -- regardless of what happens in VA.

[Senator Incitatus]

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

The race itself is quiet. Ciattarelli shot himself in the foot a bit by not seizing on education like Youngkin did (he really boxed himself in by opening his argument on education with the word “sodomy,” even though it was accurate), the state is slightly more Democratic, and Murphy is an incumbent who has managed to be decently popular by the low, low standards of New Jersey.

[Roll Roons]

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

The race itself is quiet. Ciattarelli shot himself in the foot a bit by not seizing on education like Youngkin did (he really boxed himself in by opening his argument on education with the word “sodomy,” even though it was accurate), the state is slightly more Democratic, and Murphy is an incumbent who has managed to be decently popular by the low, low standards of New Jersey.

Also the DC media/political class just doesn't care as much about this race because it's not in their backyard.

[Senator Incitatus]

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

The race itself is quiet. Ciattarelli shot himself in the foot a bit by not seizing on education like Youngkin did (he really boxed himself in by opening his argument on education with the word “sodomy,” even though it was accurate), the state is slightly more Democratic, and Murphy is an incumbent who has managed to be decently popular by the low, low standards of New Jersey.

Also the DC media/political class just doesn't care as much about this race because it's not in their backyard.

Yes, although the New York and Philadelphia media used to at least pretend to care.

[wbrocks67]

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

The race itself is quiet. Ciattarelli shot himself in the foot a bit by not seizing on education like Youngkin did (he really boxed himself in by opening his argument on education with the word “sodomy,” even though it was accurate), the state is slightly more Democratic, and Murphy is an incumbent who has managed to be decently popular by the low, low standards of New Jersey.

Funny enough, I saw a Ciatiarelli ad today that mentioned 'education' in it among a few other things.

Education not necessarily a great R wedge issue though. We have yet to see how VA shakes out, but that NBC poll from Sunday still has Dems nearly +10 for handling education over Rs.

[wbrocks67]

Sunday (10/31) Early Vote - Final Day of Early Voting
DEMS 15,864 (43.7%)
REPS 10,646 (29.3%)
UNA 9,587 (26.4%)
= 36,295

Total Early In Person Vote - Final (10/23-31)
DEMS 92,187 (44.5%)
REPS 65,470 (31.6%)
UNA 48,744 (23.5%)
= 207,365

VBM update
DEMS 317,074 (64.0%)
REPS 94,742 (19.1%)
UNA 82,059 (16.6%)
= 495,336

TOTAL VBM + Early In Person
DEMS 409,261 (58.2%)
REPS 160,212 (22.8%)
UNA 130,803 (18.6%)
= 702,701

[wbrocks67]

All in all, we're going into Election Day with 702K votes cast, which is already 34% of 2017.

Dems have a +25.4 partisan edge going into Election Day with those 702K ballots.

[republican1993]

i'll be casting my vote in person can't wait but regardless it's a non exciting race for me.

[Ferguson97]

Voted for Murphy on Saturday. Can't wait for his second term.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My final prediction for NJ Gov is Murphy +8. Significant underperformance, but still comfortable win imo.

[GregTheGreat657]

My final prediction is Murphy + 5.5%

[Senator-elect Spark]

Final prediction is Murphy +8.4

[Ferguson97]

I’m a poll worker today, turnout seems pretty normal so far in my tiny town.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy would have to collapse in the Election Day vote for him to be below 10% IMO, but we'll see

[wbrocks67]

Up to date #s going into Election Day

Total Early + VBM votes now up to 732K, with Dems (426k) having 58.9% of the vote, and Reps (260K) having 22.9% of the vote.

D lead of +36.0 going into Election Day, up from +35.4 yesterday

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1455506835050487814

[republican1993]

Just voted in a republican party of union county and it was jam packed.. my friend who lives in a dem part of NJ says he was only voter #40 of the day... who knows what will happen but think it'll be close

[Mr. Matt]

RIP Murphy campaign:

[Senator Incitatus]

RIP Murphy campaign:[image]

LOL

[CookieDamage]

Just voted in a republican party of union county and it was jam packed.. my friend who lives in a dem part of NJ says he was only voter #40 of the day... who knows what will happen but think it'll be close

Source: dude trust me

[compucomp]

In the Atlas tradition, I'll add my own anecdotal turnout report and jump to hyperbolic conclusions. In the lobby of my apartment building in Jersey City is a voting location. While I went in and out of the building just now, I saw a total of one person voting and no line whatsoever. Clearly Murphy is doomed and the Great Red Wave is upon us.

[THKL]

Here is my prediction for the New Jersey Gubernatorial Election.

Phil Murphy: 53%
Jack Ciattarelli: 45%

[CookieDamage]

I think a Murphy win from 8 - 12% is realistic.  I'd say 10.85%