NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1452316054588383234

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1452316054588383234

This seems pretty bad for the GOP mixed with mail in votes being solidly democratic

[Lord Admirale]

Obama in his speech mentioned Ciatarelli being at a Stop the Steal rally, which I'm surprised Murphy hasn't been hammering home more.

01/06 is becoming the Dems' Benghazi/emails. It is a shame because 1/6 was 50x worse than either of those, but the fatigue of hearing about 1/6 is definitely real.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1452316054588383234

Surprisingly a much lower two-party % than registration totals (59.7% versus 75.2%), esp. given I’d expect Rs to disfavor early voting and Murphy made a big deal out of voting early himself. Maybe the very widespread mail-in access accounts for this. Not really an earthquake in any case; these votes are an extremely small percentage of the final. Low turnout overall probably also helps Ciattarelli but still see this as too high a mountain for him to climb.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1452316054588383234

Surprisingly a much lower two-party % than registration totals (59.7% versus 75.2%), esp. given I’d expect Rs to disfavor early voting and Murphy made a big deal out of voting early himself. Maybe the very widespread mail-in access accounts for this. Not really an earthquake in any case; these votes are an extremely small percentage of the final. Low turnout overall probably also helps Ciattarelli but still see this as too high a mountain for him to climb.

Maybe in some states, but there has been a heavy push by Republicans to early vote in NJ.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1452316054588383234

Surprisingly a much lower two-party % than registration totals (59.7% versus 75.2%), esp. given I’d expect Rs to disfavor early voting and Murphy made a big deal out of voting early himself. Maybe the very widespread mail-in access accounts for this. Not really an earthquake in any case; these votes are an extremely small percentage of the final. Low turnout overall probably also helps Ciattarelli but still see this as too high a mountain for him to climb.

Maybe in some states, but there has been a heavy push by Republicans to early vote in NJ.

Haven’t seen this but will take your word for it.

Another reason that early voting might skew more Republican than expected is that there appear to typically be one EV location per municipality (with a few exceptions). That would tend to diminish turnout in the smaller cities like Trenton, the Oranges, Plainfield which skew almost unanimously Democratic.

[wbrocks67]

10/21 update

Dems 220K (64.7%)
Reps 69K (20.2%)
Unaffiliated 50K (14.8%)
Indies 1K (0.3%)

= 339,622 returned

Early in person voting starts Saturday 10/23.

10/25 update

Dems 241,762 (64.7%)
Reps 74,396 (19.9%)
Unaffiliated 56,436 (15.1%)
Indies 1,110 (0.3%)

= 373,704 returned

[Lord Admirale]

I wouldn't say those numbers guarantee a Murphy victory, keep in mind that even though NJ Republicans tend to be moderate, you still have Sussex, Ocean, Warren, Hunterdon, and now Salem County; all of which are very rural, conservative, and Trump country. Since a lot of Republicans still believe the election was stolen, I really doubt any of them will vote by mail.

My prediction is that we may not see NJ-Gov called for a few days. Ciattarelli will probably come out with an early lead, but will get tight no matter who wins it.

[cg41386]

NJ will probably be called by the day after at the very latest. All of those counties besides Ocean aren't that heavily populated.

[wbrocks67]

Sunday Early Vote
DEM: 7,134 (48.7%)
REP: 4,400 (30.0%)
UNA: 3,061 (20.9%)
= 14,651

Total Early Vote to Date
DEM: 16,597 (48.7%)
REP: 10,703 (31.4%)
UNA: 6,640 (19.5%)
= 34,077

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1452674207565893648

[Roll Roons]

NJ had a pretty substantial blue mirage last year - are we likely to see the same thing this year? For instance, Malinowski was leading Kean on November 3rd by double digits, but ultimately only won by 1 point.

[wbrocks67]

Final Monmouth poll coming tomorrow.

Their final poll from 2017 had Murphy +14, 53-39.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_110117/

[wbrocks67]

MONDAY (10/25) EARLY VOTE
DEMS 8,605 (46.9%)
REPS 6,075 (33.1%)
UNA 3,601 (19.6%)
= 18,353

TOTAL EARLY VOTE (10/23-25)
DEMS 25,202 (48.1%)
REPS 16,778 (32.0%)
UNA 10,241 (19.5%)
= 52,430

[wbrocks67]

VBM Update
Dems 252,943 (64.7%)
Reps 76,994 (19.7%)
UNA 59,756 (15.3%)
= 390,842

TOTAL EARLY VOTE (VBM + Early In Person)
Dems 278,145 (62.7%)
Reps 93,772 (21.2%)
UNA 69,997 (15.8%)
= 443,272

Total vote in 2017 was 2,094,491, so right now we're already at 21% turnout!

[Progressive Pessimist]

So I'm still being assailed with Ciatarelli ads on Youtube but he's got some new ones now. And one of them is particularly interesting. He says: "President Biden is doing a great job in Washington. But Governor Murphy here in New Jersey? Not so much."

I don't want to read into this ad as more than him acknowledging the reality of the safe D state that New Jersey is, but I also can't help but wonder if Murphy has been more successful than it seems in tying Ciatarelli to Trump and he is attempting to counter that. It's just such a bizarre thing to hear any Republicans say these days, in an ad or otherwise.

[Senator Incitatus]

Again surprised by just how Republican (relative to my expectations) this early vote is. It and VBM are also very white, which could be the explanatory variable.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/more-than-80-of-early-n-j-voters-are-white/

81% of voters who have cast a ballot are white (6% are black, 4% Asian, 4% Hispanic)
79% are over the age of 50 (28% are 65–74, 25% are 75+)
56% are women

Feels a bit quirky but not sure how to read this. This vote is still <7% of the expected electorate.

[Senator Incitatus]

Final Monmouth poll coming tomorrow.

Their final poll from 2017 had Murphy +14, 53-39.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_110117/

We'll also get a less-reliable Rutgers-Eagleton poll on Friday. These should go a long way to clarifying whether or not Ciattarelli even has a shot.

[wbrocks67]

Again surprised by just how Republican (relative to my expectations) this early vote is. It and VBM are also very white, which could be the explanatory variable.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/more-than-80-of-early-n-j-voters-are-white/

81% of voters who have cast a ballot are white (6% are black, 4% Asian, 4% Hispanic)
79% are over the age of 50 (28% are 65–74, 25% are 75+)
56% are women

Feels a bit quirky but not sure how to read this. This vote is still <7% of the expected electorate.

GOP has leaned into the early vote this year in NJ, which is different than most other state GOPers. That's why I'm shocked that the early vote, while only 50k so far, is still over +15 Dem.

[wbrocks67]

Tuesday (10/26) Early Vote
DEMS 6,373 (41.3%)
REPS 5,519 (35.8%)
UNA 3,473 (22.5%)
= 15,436

Total Early Vote (10/23-26)
DEMS 31,575 (46.5%)
REPS 22,297 (32.9%)
UNA 13,714 (20.2%)
= 67,866

VBM Update
DEMS 268,524 (64.7%)
REPS 80,821 (19.5%)
UNA 64,583 (15.5%)
= 415,146

Total Early Vote (VBM + Early in Person)
DEMS 300,099 (62.1%)
REPS 103,118 (21.3%)
UNA 78,297 (16.2%)
= 483,012

[wbrocks67]

Wednesday (10/27) Early Vote
DEMS 8,983 (42.7%)
REPS 7,124 (33.8%)
UNA 4,849 (23.0%)
= 21,052

Total Early Vote (10/23-27)
DEMS 40,558 (45.6%)
REPS 29,421 (33.1%)
UNA 18,563 (20.9%)
= 88,918

VBM update
DEMS 279,574 (64.5%)
REPS 84,090 (19.4%)
UNA 68,355 (15.8%)
= 433,286

Total Early Vote (VBM + Early In Person)
DEMS 320,132 (61.3%)
REPS 113,511 (21.7%)
UNA 86,918 (16.6%)
= 522,204

We are now at 25% turnout of the 2017 race! (2.09M)

[Ferguson97]

Murphy will win by 10 points.

[wbrocks67]

Thursday (10/28) Early Vote
DEMS 10,475 (44.6%)
REPS 7,513 (32.0%)
UNA 5,399 (23.0%)
= 23,487

Total Early Vote (10/23-28)
DEMS 51,033 (45.4%)
REPS 36,934 (32.9%)
UNA 23,962 (21.3%)
= 112,405

[Flyersfan232]

Murphy will win by 10 points.

My prediction o am look at the state assembly and senate race

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1454238190395592705?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Two more days of EV (Sat + Sun)

Friday (10/29) Early Vote
DEMS 11,074 (41.6%)
REPS 8,656 (32.5%)
UNA 6,790 (25.5%)
= 26,642

Total Early Vote (10/23-29)
DEMS 62,107 (44.7%)
REPS 45,590 (32.8%)
UNA 30,752 (22.1%)
= 139,047