NJ-GOV 2021 megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 23, 2021, 12:53:05 PM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  NJ-GOV 2021 megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6]
Author Topic: NJ-GOV 2021 megathread  (Read 7129 times)
Back Jack
Admiral President
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,829
Tonga


P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: May 13, 2021, 01:42:21 PM »

Why Monmouth didn't test Murphy just hypothetically against all the Rs runnning right now is beyond me..
Could just be assuming the race is Safe D, but that's a foolish assumption since New Jersey usually votes more Republican than expected in nearly all races. Kean nearly took down Malinowski, which no one was really expecting.
Logged
JMT
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,249


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: June 08, 2021, 08:13:05 PM »

Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,442
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: June 08, 2021, 09:00:52 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 09:15:57 PM by Roll Roons »

Jack also gets AP call:
Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,442
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: June 08, 2021, 09:13:58 PM »

Also New Jersey vote counting last year was New York-level bad. Glad they seem to have gotten it together now.
Logged
CookieDamage
cookiedamage
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,188


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: June 09, 2021, 02:22:09 PM »

Safe D race is Safe D
Logged
PSOL
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,448


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: June 09, 2021, 08:17:25 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 05:20:10 PM by PSOL »

The aging relic that is the SWP has put their nominee for Governor. Given the partyís candidate instead just passes the SWP newspaper instead of having a Twitter, and the party has abandoned socialism for third positionism, I suspect the only people voting for them are their members and ex-members who recently were apart of the 3%ers.

Whatever, safe D race, Iím voting for the Green.
Logged
Southern Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,739
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: June 09, 2021, 10:09:10 PM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%
Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,442
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: June 11, 2021, 10:04:56 AM »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-picks-hugin-for-gop-state-chairman/

Also FWIW, pharmaceutical CEO and former Senate candidate Bob Hugin will be the new NJ GOP chair.
Logged
CookieDamage
cookiedamage
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,188


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: June 11, 2021, 02:50:17 PM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

Somerset is not flipping. It's likelier Murphy carries Somerset by an Obama 2012 margin and ends up picking up Morris.
Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,442
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: June 11, 2021, 04:08:51 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2021, 09:05:40 PM by Roll Roons »

Might as well put out my thoughts about State Senate races.

Safe R:
LD1 (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland)
LD9 (Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean)
LD10 (Ocean)
LD12 (Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean)
LD13 (Monmouth)
LD23 (Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren)
LD24 (Morris, Sussex, Warren)
LD26 (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
LD30 (Monmouth, Ocean)
LD40 (Bergen, Essex, Morris, Passaic)


Likely R:
LD25 (Morris, Somerset). Incumbent Senator Tony Bucco (R) was appointed to this seat in 2019 after his father, Senator Anthony Bucco, died in office. The younger Bucco won a special election by 9 points even as Biden carried the district by a similar margin. This district is much more Republican downballot, so he should be fine.
LD39 (Bergen, Passaic). Long-serving Senator Gerry Cardinale (R) died in February, and was replaced by then-Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi, a rising star in the NJ GOP. Biden won this district narrowly, but Schepisi is a proven vote-getter and it is more Republican downballot.

Lean R:
LD21 (Morris, Somerset, Union). Although Trump is very unpopular in this wealthy Romney-Clinton-Biden suburban district, it is still willing to vote for moderate Republicans at the state level. Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. is retiring and will probably run for Congress again, so Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R) will be running to replace him. His Democratic opponent will be Roselle Park mayor Joe Signorello (D), who is certainly a credible candidate. But Jon is a proven vote-getter with a long record of winning in the district, and managed to survive even in the Trump era. He should be considered a favorite for now.

Tossup:
LD2 (Atlantic). Senator Chris Brown (R) is retiring in this Atlantic City-based district, which has long been one of the most competitive in the state. It's the battle of Italians named Vince, as Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo (D) is running against former Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). Should be a close and exciting race.
LD8 (Atlantic, Burlington, Camden). This South Jersey Clinton-Biden district has not actually elected a Democrat since the 1970s. Senator Dawn Addiego (D) had been continuously reelected as a Republican, but switched parties in January 2019. Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield (R), who served for over 16 years as Burlington County Sheriff, is taking her on. Both women have long histories in this area, and the race will be very competitive.

Lean D:
LD11 (Monmouth). Senator Vin Gopal (D), the youngest member of the Senate, was first elected in 2017, beating Senator Jen Beck (R) in an upset. Gopal is considered a rising star, and will face businesswoman Lori Annetta (R). This is still a fairly competitive district, and Gopal, though favored, can't quite rest easy.
LD16 (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset). Jack Ciattarelli once represented this district in the State Assembly. It used to be pretty Republican, but has shifted hard left in recent years, particularly after Princeton was added in 2011. But it is not totally averse to electing Republicans, as retiring Senator Kip Bateman (R) won in 2017. Bateman is retiring after having had heart surgery, so Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker (D) is seeking a promotion against former Congressman Mike Pappas (R). Zwicker should be considered somewhat favored, but he can't take it for granted. Especially if Jack happens to provide a favorite son boost.

Likely D:
LD3 (Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem). This working class South Jersey district is the only Trump district held by a Democrat in the state. That Democrat happens to be Senate President Steve Sweeney, a very powerful man with ties to the South Jersey machine. Republicans have tried to beat him multiple times, but never really come close. He'll most likely be fine, but given that Trump won here, I wouldn't say it's completely safe.
LD38 (Bergen, Passaic). This was formerly one of the most competitive districts in the state. It has trended blue in recent years, but it is not overwhelmingly so. The Assembly members had a somewhat closer-than-expected race in 2019, so a Republican upset isn't out of the question. That said, Senator Joe Lagana (D) should still be a favorite over businessman Richard Garcia (R).

Safe D:
LD4 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD5 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD6 (Burlington, Camden)
LD7 (Burlington)
LD14 (Mercer, Middlesex)
LD15 (Hunterdon, Mercer)
LD17 (Middlesex, Somerset)
LD18 (Middlesex)
LD19 (Middlesex)
LD20 (Union)
LD22 (Middlesex, Somerset, Union)
LD27 (Essex, Morris)
LD28 (Essex)
LD29 (Essex)
LD31 (Hudson)
LD32 (Bergen, Hudson)
LD33 (Hudson)
LD34 (Essex, Passaic)
LD35 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD36 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD37 (Bergen)


Overall, I have Republicans favored in 13 races and Democrats favored in 25, with two tossups.

Frankly, Trump's loss was just about the best thing that could have happened to New Jersey Republicans. Things could have gotten really ugly if he was still president.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,810


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: June 12, 2021, 09:05:15 AM »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-picks-hugin-for-gop-state-chairman/

Also FWIW, pharmaceutical CEO and former Senate candidate Bob Hugin will be the new NJ GOP chair.

The same Bob Hugin who lost double digits to Bob Menendez? It was a dem year but Menendnez was wounded. Yikes.
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,942
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: June 12, 2021, 01:00:12 PM »

Might as well put out my thoughts about State Senate races.

Safe R:
LD1 (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland)
LD9 (Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean)
LD10 (Ocean)
LD12 (Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean)
LD13 (Monmouth)
LD23 (Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren)
LD24 (Morris, Sussex, Warren)
LD26 (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
LD30 (Monmouth, Ocean)
LD40 (Bergen, Essex, Morris, Passaic)


Likely R:
LD25 (Morris, Somerset). Incumbent Senator Tony Bucco (R) was appointed to this seat in 2019 after his father, Senator Anthony Bucco, died in office. The younger Bucco won a special election by 9 points even as Biden carried the district by a similar margin. This district is much more Republican downballot, so he should be fine.
LD39 (Bergen, Passaic). Long-serving Senator Gerry Cardinale (R) died in February, and was replaced by then-Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi, a rising star in the NJ GOP. Biden won this district narrowly, but Schepisi is a proven vote-getter and it is more Republican downballot.

Lean R:
LD21 (Morris, Somerset, Union). Although Trump is very unpopular in this wealthy Romney-Clinton-Biden suburban district, it is still willing to vote for moderate Republicans at the state level. Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. is retiring and will probably run for Congress again, so Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R) will be running to replace him. His Democratic opponent will be Roselle Park mayor Joe Signorello (D), who is certainly a credible candidate. But Jon is a proven vote-getter with a long record of winning in the district, and managed to survive even in the Trump era. He should be considered a favorite for now.

Tossup:
LD2 (Atlantic). Senator Chris Brown (R) is retiring in this Atlantic City-based district, which has long been one of the most competitive in the state. It's the battle of Italians named Vince, as Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo (D) is running against former Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). Should be a close and exciting race.
LD8 (Atlantic, Burlington, Camden). This South Jersey Clinton-Biden district has not actually elected a Democrat since the 1970s. Senator Dawn Addiego (D) had been continuously reelected as a Republican, but switched parties in January 2019. Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield (R), who served for over 16 years as Burlington County Sheriff, is taking her on. Both women have long histories in this area, and the race will be very competitive.

Lean D:
LD11 (Monmouth). Senator Vin Gopal (D), the youngest member of the Senate, was first elected in 2017, beating Senator Jen Beck (R) in an upset. Gopal is considered a rising star, and will face businesswoman Lori Annetta (R). This is still a fairly competitive district, and Gopal, though favored, can't quite rest easy.
LD16 (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset). Jack Ciattarelli once represented this district in the State Assembly. It used to be pretty Republican, but has shifted hard left in recent years, particularly after Princeton was added in 2011. But it is not totally averse to electing Republicans, as retiring Senator Kip Bateman (R) won in 2017. Bateman is retiring after having had heart surgery, so Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker (D) is seeking a promotion against former Congressman Mike Pappas (R). Zwicker should be considered somewhat favored, but he can't take it for granted. Especially if Jack happens to provide a favorite son boost.

Likely D:
LD3 (Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem). This working class South Jersey district is the only Trump district held by a Democrat in the state. That Democrat happens to be Senate President Steve Sweeney, a very powerful man with ties to the South Jersey machine. Republicans have tried to beat him multiple times, but never really come close. He'll most likely be fine, but given that Trump won here, I wouldn't say it's completely safe.
LD38 (Bergen, Passaic). This was formerly one of the most competitive districts in the state. It has trended blue in recent years, but it is not overwhelmingly so. The Assembly members had a somewhat closer-than-expected race in 2019, so a Republican upset isn't out of the question. That said, Senator Joe Lagana (D) should still be a favorite over businessman Richard Garcia (R).

Safe D:
LD4 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD5 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD6 (Burlington, Camden)
LD7 (Burlington)
LD14 (Mercer, Middlesex)
LD15 (Hunterdon, Mercer)
LD17 (Middlesex, Somerset)
LD18 (Middlesex)
LD19 (Middlesex)
LD20 (Union)
LD22 (Middlesex, Somerset, Union)
LD27 (Essex, Morris)
LD28 (Essex)
LD29 (Essex)
LD31 (Hudson)
LD32 (Bergen, Hudson)
LD33 (Hudson)
LD34 (Essex, Passaic)
LD35 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD36 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD37 (Bergen)


Overall, I have Republicans favored in 13 races and Democrats favored in 25, with two tossups.

Frankly, Trump's loss was just about the best thing that could have happened to New Jersey Republicans. Things could have gotten really ugly if he was still president.

Generally agree but I think 16 is gone for the GOP. Biden won that district by over 20% and Zwicker is well known. Ancestral Republicans can only do so much.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,199
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: June 16, 2021, 09:32:22 AM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

I know that Somerset County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in downballot races-and was a Republican stronghold at the presidential level prior to 2008-but I'm not sure if it will go Republican this year. Biden won it with more than 60% of the vote, and presidential polarization has begun to heavily affect downballot races now. However, I do see Ciattarelli winning Morris County, which Biden only won by 4% and which still has a substantial number of moderate R-leaning voters.
Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,442
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: June 19, 2021, 04:19:18 PM »



FDU apparently coming out with a poll of the gubernatorial race on Monday.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,810


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: June 19, 2021, 05:04:36 PM »

Depends on how bad he thought it would be, I guess.
Logged
cg41386
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 481
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: June 19, 2021, 10:59:07 PM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

I know that Somerset County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in downballot races-and was a Republican stronghold at the presidential level prior to 2008-but I'm not sure if it will go Republican this year. Biden won it with more than 60% of the vote, and presidential polarization has begun to heavily affect downballot races now. However, I do see Ciattarelli winning Morris County, which Biden only won by 4% and which still has a substantial number of moderate R-leaning voters.

Yeah, I think Somerset is just about gone for the GOP.
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,942
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: June 19, 2021, 11:09:56 PM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

I know that Somerset County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in downballot races-and was a Republican stronghold at the presidential level prior to 2008-but I'm not sure if it will go Republican this year. Biden won it with more than 60% of the vote, and presidential polarization has begun to heavily affect downballot races now. However, I do see Ciattarelli winning Morris County, which Biden only won by 4% and which still has a substantial number of moderate R-leaning voters.

Yeah, I think Somerset is just about gone for the GOP.

Murphy will do better in Somerset than Gloucester.
Logged
Josh Shapiro for Governor
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,715
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: June 20, 2021, 07:07:53 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2021, 07:31:33 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

Why would Murphy lose Somerset? Even Menendez carried it in 2018.
Logged
LabourJersey
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,940
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: June 22, 2021, 08:38:27 AM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

Why would Murphy lose Somerset? Even Menendez carried it in 2018.

Yeah. Somerset is just 69% white and about 50% college educated. The Republican party of 2021 is not going to win a county like that
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,810


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: June 22, 2021, 09:14:55 AM »

Did we ever get word on what Dem turnout was like on primary day?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.