NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Suburbia]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/cardinale-still-intends-to-seek-re-election/

Republican State Senator Gerald Cardinale of Bergen County will run for reelection next year at the age of 87. I don't know how people do it.

Both Cardinale and Codey should retire or lose reelection in 2021

Bergen Democrats need to run someone who can beat Cardinale.

Cardinale, Feinstein, Grassley are all old politicians.

[LabourJersey]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

[Suburbia]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

That's why he is not going to win anyway, the name is a punchline. Murphy will call him full of s*** for his votes on Christie's tax cuts for the rich et. al.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

I'll be honest, I live in Los Angeles, I see hard names all the time, I had no ing idea how to say it. Italian right?

[LabourJersey]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

I'll be honest, I live in Los Angeles, I see hard names all the time, I had no ing idea how to say it. Italian right?

Yeah, it's Italian. I think this is more an example of me being familiar with Italian names than anything, haha.

[Roll Roons]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

I'll be honest, I live in Los Angeles, I see hard names all the time, I had no ing idea how to say it. Italian right?

Yeah, it's Italian. I think this is more an example of me being familiar with Italian names than anything, haha.

Luckily for Ciattarelli, this is one of the last states that will be a problem.

[KaiserDave]

Ciattarelli will lose to Phil Murphy and it won't be close.

[Kingpoleon]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

[Senator Incitatus]

Likely D. Republicans are unlucky in that both 2021 states are hard D. Probably won't tell us anything about 2022.

[Suburbia]

Likely D. Republicans are unlucky in that both 2021 states are hard D. Probably won't tell us anything about 2022.

True, but the GOP will win in 2025....with Jen Beck

[Suburbia]

If Murphy wins again, he better focus like a laser on the economy and lowering property taxes.

Most people commute to NYC, if the virus goes away, people will be afraid to go back.

NJ's unemployment rate spiked from 8.0 percent in Oct to 10.2 in Nov.

Probably because of the shutdowns again and virus spikes.

Murphy better do something about it.

People are angry with him over the MVC delays and the jobs crisis.

He need to cut the corporate tax rate by 2 percent and cap property taxes.

Lean D, for now, but Murphy will win reelection. But his 2022-26 term better be economics and policing reform.

[Suburbia]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

Guardian lost reelection as mayor of Atlantic City to a corrupt Democrat Frank Gillam, who has ethical problems and had to resign due to corruption.

Guardian may be too liberal for the NJGOP, he is openly gay. While Guardian would be the typical Northeastern Republican, socially liberal, economically conservative, he lives in Toms River now where he is a Business Administrator.

Munoz has no real accomplishments; she succeeded her late husband Eric Munoz in 2009.

Harsh Singh is the one who can give Murphy the toughest challenge, he is a minority, Ciattarelli is probably best suited for a run in NJ-07 or NJ-11 in 2022, and Steinhardt is probably going to win the nomination and lose by 3-5 points.

Lean D for now.

[S019]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

Guardian lost reelection as mayor of Atlantic City to a corrupt Democrat Frank Gillam, who has ethical problems and had to resign due to corruption.

Guardian may be too liberal for the NJGOP, he is openly gay. While Guardian would be the typical Northeastern Republican, socially liberal, economically conservative, he lives in Toms River now where he is a Business Administrator.

Munoz has no real accomplishments; she succeeded her late husband Eric Munoz in 2009.

Harsh Singh is the one who can give Murphy the toughest challenge, he is a minority, Ciattarelli is probably best suited for a run in NJ-07 or NJ-11 in 2022, and Steinhardt is probably going to win the nomination and lose by 3-5 points.

Lean D for now.

Being too liberal really shouldn't be too much of an issue in a New Jersey primary, I don't think we're at the point yet where like all of the northern suburbanites who switched to voting D changed their registration. But Guardian is from the south, and the more conservative Republicans in the state do hail from there. Also NJ-11 will not even be winnable in 2022, the seat is going to become anchored by Montclair, Livingston, and the rest of West Essex's blue suburbs, and probably drop the more heavily conservative towns such as those in eastern Morris to a new sink, which will probably be the 7th. An interesting dynamic here will be the primary, Sweeney has still refused to endorse Murphy I believe, as has Norcross, either of them running or backing a significant primary challenge could weaken Murphy, but the current crop of candidates is just not that impressive. I expect Murphy to win by high single digits to low double digits in the end.

[Suburbia]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

Guardian lost reelection as mayor of Atlantic City to a corrupt Democrat Frank Gillam, who has ethical problems and had to resign due to corruption.

Guardian may be too liberal for the NJGOP, he is openly gay. While Guardian would be the typical Northeastern Republican, socially liberal, economically conservative, he lives in Toms River now where he is a Business Administrator.

Munoz has no real accomplishments; she succeeded her late husband Eric Munoz in 2009.

Harsh Singh is the one who can give Murphy the toughest challenge, he is a minority, Ciattarelli is probably best suited for a run in NJ-07 or NJ-11 in 2022, and Steinhardt is probably going to win the nomination and lose by 3-5 points.

Lean D for now.

Being too liberal really shouldn't be too much of an issue in a New Jersey primary, I don't think we're at the point yet where like all of the northern suburbanites who switched to voting D changed their registration. But Guardian is from the south, and the more conservative Republicans in the state do hail from there. Also NJ-11 will not even be winnable in 2022, the seat is going to become anchored by Montclair, Livingston, and the rest of West Essex's blue suburbs, and probably drop the more heavily conservative towns such as those in eastern Morris to a new sink, which will probably be the 7th. An interesting dynamic here will be the primary, Sweeney has still refused to endorse Murphy I believe, as has Norcross, either of them running or backing a significant primary challenge could weaken Murphy, but the current crop of candidates is just not that impressive. I expect Murphy to win by high single digits to low double digits in the end.

Sweeney would lose a primary to Murphy.

Most NJ Democratic governors since Florio always face intraparty challenges from the left and the right flank of the party.

Florio's 1990 tax increases cost Democrats the legislature in 1991, Bob Franks and the NJGOP worked and rolled their sleeves up to redistrict NJ to the GOP's favor in the 1990s, for the last time. Florio was a one-termer.

McGreevey's poor leadership forced him out, before the sex scandal came out McGreevey would have faced a primary challenge in 2005, the wealthy Corzine forced Dick Codey out of the race and won.

Corzine's poor leadership almost gave him a primary challenge in 2009; like David Paterson in NY, the Obama White House wanted Corzine to retire in 2009 because they thought that Codey would have prevented a Christie governorship. Corzine had a car accident that nearly killed him, he was a progressive for a wealthy man, he loved tax hikes, signed legislation to abolish the death penalty in 2007 and wanted state run government health care. All of that was erased because NJ cares about taxes, taxes, taxes, and NJ is one of the highest-taxed states in America.

Pre-COVID, I thought Murphy would face a challenge from Sweeney or Norcross's people, maybe Jeff Van Drew before he switched parties.

Assemblyman Jamel Holley would have challenged Murphy, but he is an anti-vax liberal who would not do well in the white suburbs.

Pascrell is too old to run...

[Senator-elect Spark]

Safe D. Murphy had a good COVID response and should ride the wave of high approval to re-election in 2021.

[Suburbia]

Safe D. Murphy had a good COVID response and should ride the wave of high approval to re-election in 2021.

I think Likely D more than Safe D.

They are a lot of angry Jerseyans who don't like the shutdown in the spring and they are angry about the lack of jobs in the state.

His second term better be job-centric. Murphy should run on marijuana legalization that he signed and also his state bank that he proposed.

[Chips]

Likely D.

[Pollster]

Assemblyman Jamel Holley would have challenged Murphy, but he is an anti-vax liberal who would not do well in the white suburbs.

2021 will be, without question, the worst year in recorded history to run as an anti-vaxxer.

[Suburbia]

If Murphy has any ties to China, he could be in trouble.

Would it change anything?

https://www.nj.com/politics/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/steinhardt-drops-out-of-gop-gubernatorial-race/

Former State GOP Chair Doug Steinhardt is out. He was running as a MAGA candidate,  and Trumpism REALLY does not play well in this state. Jack Ciattarelli is now the strong favorite for the GOP nomination.

He released this ad on the day of the Capitol riot, attacking Ciattarelli for not supporting Trump in 2016:
https://twitter.com/TeamSteinhardt/status/1346833912258043905

[Suburbia]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/steinhardt-drops-out-of-gop-gubernatorial-race/

Former State GOP Chair Doug Steinhardt is out. He was running as a MAGA candidate,  and Trumpism REALLY does not play well in this state. Jack Ciattarelli is now the strong favorite for the GOP nomination.

He released this ad on the day of the Capitol riot, attacking Ciattarelli for not supporting Trump in 2016:
https://twitter.com/TeamSteinhardt/status/1346833912258043905

And Ciattarelli will lose to Murphy by 4-8 points. The only person who could beat Murphy is Joe Piscopo or Al Leiter. They have name ID. Ciattarelli, no one knows who that is.

[Suburbia]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/cardinale-still-intends-to-seek-re-election/

Republican State Senator Gerald Cardinale of Bergen County will run for reelection next year at the age of 87. I don't know how people do it.

Loretta Weinberg, a NJ Democratic titan is retiring this year at the age of 85. Codey should retire as well.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/01/loretta-weinberg-huge-force-in-nj-legislature-to-retire-at-end-of-her-term.html

[Suburbia]

Could Murphy win 58-42, or 60-40, if Ciattarelli is an underwhelming candidate, which I see happening.

[Suburbia]

Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will not run for reelection to his LD-21 district, making it most likely that he will challenge Malinowski again in 2022......

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/kean-2021-re-elect/

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will run for the state Senate seat, making a leadership vacuum in the Assembly GOP....

This district was once a central Jersey affluent Republican stronghold to a swing district, because of Christie and Trump.

[LabourJersey]

Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will not run for reelection to his LD-21 district, making it most likely that he will challenge Malinowski again in 2022......

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/kean-2021-re-elect/

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will run for the state Senate seat, making a leadership vacuum in the Assembly GOP....

This district was once a central Jersey affluent Republican stronghold to a swing district, because of Christie and Trump.

It would be hilarious if Kean announces a run against Malinowski only for the Redistricting Commission to put his hometown (Westfield) in Mikie Sherill's district (which I've heard is a possibility)