NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Roll Roons]

Simultaneously hilarious that Sweeney's career was ended by a political layperson and upsetting that said layperson has some pretty terrible views.

Honestly, this isn't a totally bad thing b/c it raises the probability that this guy will lose next time he's up and we can elect someone a lot better than Sweeney to that position.

The district might not go back D necessarily (though redistricting may be a lot different now to maybe move some of the northern suburbs of the district around Rowan or Bridgeton elsewhere) but the next election is in two years during the Murphy-midterm/post-Biden-midterm.

If there's any solstice, Vin Gopal is still barely ahead in ruby Atlas blue Monmouth and the 3rd loss may be offset by Zwicker winning in the 16th- he's barely ahead right now, but I don't know how much of South Brunswick or Princeton is still out.

Bear in mind that Republicans also flipped the 8th - looks like Senate will be R+1 in the end.

[Roll Roons]

So it appears that Camden, Bergen, Burlington, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex and Union voted to the left of the statewide result.

While Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Sussex and Warren voted to the right of it.

Passaic and Somerset are almost exactly tracking the statewide result. IDK about Somerset, but the next time a Republican does win statewide, I think they'll most likely win Passaic.

[Roll Roons]

Do we have results by congressional district here?

Assuming Ciattarelli won NJ-07, but curious who won NJ-05/NJ-11, and also curious as to Ciattarelli's margin of victory in NJ-02/NJ-03

I would think Jack won NJ-05 and NJ-11 - he only lost Bergen by 5 and carried Morris by double digits.

[Roll Roons]

I would actually expect provisionals to lean slightly Republican. But yeah, Jack won't be making up that gap.

[Roll Roons]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

[Roll Roons]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

You're right - I wonder if counties have actually counted any of the post-election day VBMs yet, or those are going to be processed starting tomorrow?

They've been counting them as they come in.

[Roll Roons]

Also I do wonder how this race would have gone if Trump was still in the White House. I bet the result would have been similar to 2017, though with Murphy doing slightly worse in the South and considerably improving in the suburban/exurban North.

And Sweeney probably wouldn't have lost.

[Roll Roons]

With almost everything now counted, here's the order of counties from most to least Democratic:

1. Essex
2. Hudson
3. Mercer
4. Camden
5. Union
6. Middlesex
7. Burlington
8. Bergen
9. Somerset

<Statewide result>

10. Passaic
11. Gloucester
12. Cumberland
13. Atlantic
14. Morris
15. Monmouth
16. Hunterdon
17. Cape May
18. Salem
19. Warren
20. Sussex
21. Ocean

It seems like Somerset and Passaic will indeed be the statewide bellwethers for some time.

[Roll Roons]

With the dust having largely settled, the legislative results were as follows:

GOP made a net gain of 1 in the Senate, picking up LD-3 (Sweeney's seat) and the Burlington-based LD-8 from party switcher Dawn Addiego. But they lost LD-16 because holding onto a seat that contained Princeton was too much to ask for. They also held onto LD-2 (Atlantic).

They made a net gain of 6 in the Assembly, holding all their current seats and picking up two each in LDs 2, 3 and 11 (Monmouth).

LDs 2, 8, 21 (Union, Somerset and Morris), 25 (mostly Morris with one town in Somerset) and 39 (mostly Bergen with a couple towns in Passaic) will have all-Republican legislative representation despite having voted for Biden. LD-11, also a Biden district, reelected incumbent Democratic Senator Vin Gopal despite Republicans winning both Assembly seats. It will be the only split legislative delegation.

[Roll Roons]

I’m sure this has been asked/discussed before, but why did Murphy do better than Biden in Hudson County?

https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/brian-stack-is-new-jerseys-gotv-king/

Jersey City also had some hotly contested municipal races.

[Roll Roons]

So Ciattarelli obviously won the white vote statewide. Is it also safe to assume that he won it in every county aside from Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Union and Camden?

[Roll Roons]

I've been compiling town-by-town results in a Google Sheet. So far 13 counties have certified out of 21.

All 21 counties have been added.

Nice work! So it appears that by percentage, East Orange was the most Democratic town in the state and Deal was the most Republican. In terms of raw votes, it looks like Murphy netted the most from Jersey City and Jack netted the most from Toms River.

[Roll Roons]

Results by congressional district: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/ciattarelli-won-all-five-of-new-jerseys-competitive-congressional-districts/

Ciattarelli won NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-04, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 and only lost NJ-06 by 4 points. The Hudson County-based 8th was the only district where Murphy did better than Biden.