NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Lord Admirale]

You guys are very wrongly assuming that enough undecideds watched the debate, or cared about it, to make any sort of difference that will favor Ciatarelli. Murphy will win no matter what, and the margin will be determined but turnout. Ciatarelli's only chance to keep Murphy at his floor (which I think is 12%) is for turnout to benefit the GOP, as tends to happen in our off-year elections, to be fair. But even then, Murphy is still fairly popular, especially on his COVID response.

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli didn't come across Trumpian in the debate, sans his comments on vaccines.

Well, that's probably why Murphy is utilizing the campaign he is, as you see it. It's the California recall strategy where they're going to win no matter what, but to avoid overconfidence and to increase the margin Murphy seems to be attempting to incite fear of Ciatarelli as a Trumpist in sheep's clothing. He was trying to be fairly Trumpy in the primary, to be fair. The only way he wasn't was because he dared to admit that the 2020 election was fair and legitimate.

But the difference here is that Elder was unabashedly pro-Trump, Ciattarelli has mostly returned to his 2017 self. He stepped up the Trumpyness earlier this year because of the influx of South Jersey looneys (cough, JVD, cough) who were changing the power dynamic of the NJ-GOP away from the North Jersey Kean-Bramnick types.

It'll be interesting to see what the state GOP will be like regardless if Ciattarelli wins or loses, as well as how state assembly races play out.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Safe R

[Senator Incitatus]

I think Ciattarelli won the debate but his opioids tangle will kill him, especially now that Democrats are using it in attack ads. Likely/Safe D, current guess being something like 53–47.

[Senator Incitatus]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is... not true at all. Have you ever been to New Jersey?

Guadagno only won Whites by 8% in 2017.

[Ferguson97]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

[Not Me, Us]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

Tell me you’ve never been to New Jersey without telling me you’ve never been to New Jersey.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You guys are very wrongly assuming that enough undecideds watched the debate, or cared about it, to make any sort of difference that will favor Ciatarelli. Murphy will win no matter what, and the margin will be determined but turnout. Ciatarelli's only chance to keep Murphy at his floor (which I think is 12%) is for turnout to benefit the GOP, as tends to happen in our off-year elections, to be fair. But even then, Murphy is still fairly popular, especially on his COVID response.

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli didn't come across Trumpian in the debate, sans his comments on vaccines.

Well, that's probably why Murphy is utilizing the campaign he is, as you see it. It's the California recall strategy where they're going to win no matter what, but to avoid overconfidence and to increase the margin Murphy seems to be attempting to incite fear of Ciatarelli as a Trumpist in sheep's clothing. He was trying to be fairly Trumpy in the primary, to be fair. The only way he wasn't was because he dared to admit that the 2020 election was fair and legitimate.

But the difference here is that Elder was unabashedly pro-Trump, Ciattarelli has mostly returned to his 2017 self. He stepped up the Trumpyness earlier this year because of the influx of South Jersey looneys (cough, JVD, cough) who were changing the power dynamic of the NJ-GOP away from the North Jersey Kean-Bramnick types.

It'll be interesting to see what the state GOP will be like regardless if Ciattarelli wins or loses, as well as how state assembly races play out.

I'm not saying that Ciatarelli is necessarily an Elder or Trumplike figure, just that it seems to be what Murphy and his campaign are trying to paint him as in an attempt to energize Democratic voters who are receptive to that.

[Senator Incitatus]

I was raised in New Jersey and have consulted for successful campaigns in both parties there. The only thing mildly inaccurate about my post was the Mississippi comparison, since Mississippi has no white moderates, let alone liberals. But the point was still obviously correct — Phil Murphy is wasting time going after the sort of socially-liberal suburban whites who still obsess over Trump.

Nearly every major competitive campaign in the state today employs a strategy that takes most white and all black voters for granted and focuses on the middle (see 2009) — the only way things vary are in a non-competitive landslide like the anti-Trump, anti-Christie wave the state saw in 2017–18 (where a significant minority of conservative whites voted Democratic) or Christie's 2013 win (where he picked up a fair number of black voters).

Murphy's strategy is betting on a similar statewide environment, and it clearly isn't working. At this point in 2017, for comparison, Guadagno had basically stopped fundraising. Most people I've talked to say this is a worse incumbent campaign than Corzine's (who had the environment more strongly against him) and possibly the worst ever. (Keep in mind this is a low bar; incumbents have only been running since 1947 and only a few have lost.) That doesn't mean he'll lose, obviously. I think he'll survive pretty comfortably despite himself.

I also probably should have used "progressive"; forgot this site uses idiosyncratic (though more accurate, to its credit) ideological terms, but everyone in the real world still calls extreme Democrats liberals.

[Suburbia]

I was raised in New Jersey and have consulted for successful campaigns in both parties there. The only thing mildly inaccurate about my post was the Mississippi comparison, since Mississippi has no white moderates, let alone liberals. But the point was still obviously correct — Phil Murphy is wasting time going after the sort of socially-liberal suburban whites who still obsess over Trump.

Nearly every major competitive campaign in the state today employs a strategy that takes most white and all black voters for granted and focuses on the middle (see 2009) — the only way things vary are in a non-competitive landslide like the anti-Trump, anti-Christie wave the state saw in 2017–18 (where a significant minority of conservative whites voted Democratic) or Christie's 2013 win (where he picked up a fair number of black voters).

Murphy's strategy is betting on a similar statewide environment, and it clearly isn't working. At this point in 2017, for comparison, Guadagno had basically stopped fundraising. Most people I've talked to say this is a worse incumbent campaign than Corzine's (who had the environment more strongly against him) and possibly the worst ever. (Keep in mind this is a low bar; incumbents have only been running since 1947 and only a few have lost.) That doesn't mean he'll lose, obviously. I think he'll survive pretty comfortably despite himself.

I also probably should have used "progressive"; forgot this site uses idiosyncratic (though more accurate, to its credit) ideological terms, but everyone in the real world still calls extreme Democrats liberals.

How is Murphy running a bad campaign?

[wbrocks67]

I was raised in New Jersey and have consulted for successful campaigns in both parties there. The only thing mildly inaccurate about my post was the Mississippi comparison, since Mississippi has no white moderates, let alone liberals. But the point was still obviously correct — Phil Murphy is wasting time going after the sort of socially-liberal suburban whites who still obsess over Trump.

Nearly every major competitive campaign in the state today employs a strategy that takes most white and all black voters for granted and focuses on the middle (see 2009) — the only way things vary are in a non-competitive landslide like the anti-Trump, anti-Christie wave the state saw in 2017–18 (where a significant minority of conservative whites voted Democratic) or Christie's 2013 win (where he picked up a fair number of black voters).

Murphy's strategy is betting on a similar statewide environment, and it clearly isn't working. At this point in 2017, for comparison, Guadagno had basically stopped fundraising. Most people I've talked to say this is a worse incumbent campaign than Corzine's (who had the environment more strongly against him) and possibly the worst ever. (Keep in mind this is a low bar; incumbents have only been running since 1947 and only a few have lost.) That doesn't mean he'll lose, obviously. I think he'll survive pretty comfortably despite himself.

I also probably should have used "progressive"; forgot this site uses idiosyncratic (though more accurate, to its credit) ideological terms, but everyone in the real world still calls extreme Democrats liberals.

How is Murphy running a bad campaign?

Yeah, if anything Murphy has been running a pretty good campaign considering the history of Democratic incumbents in this state.

Ciatarelli meanwhile is literally not even campaigning and is virtually invisible.

[Calthrina950]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

How would you describe New Jersey politics?

[wbrocks67]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

How would you describe New Jersey politics?

The state is one big suburb. Yes, there are more conservative whites and more liberal whites, but I'd say most of the NJ ~base~ is very moderate, and Murphy has succeeded IMO of bringing a "moderate" presentation to a lot of "liberal" policies.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1445743533005017093

[Progressive Pessimist]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

How would you describe New Jersey politics?

The state is one big suburb. Yes, there are more conservative whites and more liberal whites, but I'd say most of the NJ ~base~ is very moderate, and Murphy has succeeded IMO of bringing a "moderate" presentation to a lot of "liberal" policies.

Exactly. Murphy is not Corzine nor he is he Menendez. And at the barest minimum I expect him to do better than the latter statewide.

Also, to address a point I've seen made by Republicans and reinforce the one I made just before, just because New Jersey hasn't re-elected a Democratic Governor in decades doesn't mean that pattern will hold just because. The same thing ended in Virginia in 2013, and will end this year. Every pattern is true until it isn't.

[wbrocks67]

Was reading about the LT-GOV debate last night, and Ciatarelli refused to answer a question last week about white privilege? And there were posters saying he did better than Murphy, when he wouldn't even answer simple questions?

Diane Allen actually had a surprisingly good answer to the question. Ciatarelli failed to do so, apparently

[kwabbit]

I was raised in New Jersey and have consulted for successful campaigns in both parties there. The only thing mildly inaccurate about my post was the Mississippi comparison, since Mississippi has no white moderates, let alone liberals. But the point was still obviously correct — Phil Murphy is wasting time going after the sort of socially-liberal suburban whites who still obsess over Trump.

Nearly every major competitive campaign in the state today employs a strategy that takes most white and all black voters for granted and focuses on the middle (see 2009) — the only way things vary are in a non-competitive landslide like the anti-Trump, anti-Christie wave the state saw in 2017–18 (where a significant minority of conservative whites voted Democratic) or Christie's 2013 win (where he picked up a fair number of black voters).

Murphy's strategy is betting on a similar statewide environment, and it clearly isn't working. At this point in 2017, for comparison, Guadagno had basically stopped fundraising. Most people I've talked to say this is a worse incumbent campaign than Corzine's (who had the environment more strongly against him) and possibly the worst ever. (Keep in mind this is a low bar; incumbents have only been running since 1947 and only a few have lost.) That doesn't mean he'll lose, obviously. I think he'll survive pretty comfortably despite himself.

I also probably should have used "progressive"; forgot this site uses idiosyncratic (though more accurate, to its credit) ideological terms, but everyone in the real world still calls extreme Democrats liberals.

How is Murphy running a bad campaign?

Yeah, if anything Murphy has been running a pretty good campaign considering the history of Democratic incumbents in this state.

Ciatarelli meanwhile is literally not even campaigning and is virtually invisible.

Idk what media market you’re in, but Ciatarelli ads are plastered over cable and billboards in the Philly and NYC markets. Unless you mean in person campaigning, but he’s doing what he needs to to raise name recognition.

[Lord Admirale]

Was reading about the LT-GOV debate last night, and Ciatarelli refused to answer a question last week about white privilege? And there were posters saying he did better than Murphy, when he wouldn't even answer simple questions?

Diane Allen actually had a surprisingly good answer to the question. Ciatarelli failed to do so, apparently

To 99% of voters of all colors the topic of white privilege is not something they think about while voting.

[Lord Admirale]

This is something people need to keep in mind, aside from NJ-Sen 2018 (which was a pretty unique circumstance), Republicans tend to overperform polling in New Jersey. Tom Kean was not expected to do as well as he did last November, and Republicans in NJ-05 and NJ-11 did much better than expected even as no-name candidates against popular incumbents.

New Jersey is certainly a largely local issues driven state and college-educated voters tend to split their votes. Think about Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. All three voted for Joe Biden by health margins, but VT and NH voted for Republican governors by large margins, and MA reelected a Republican governor by a 2-1 margin three years ago.

Murphy not only refuses to back down from his millionaires tax, he's campaigning on it while the state is in its absolute worst economic condition in history. Regardless if you're for or against such a tax, you have to admit implementing it on a statewide level in any state is ridiculous. As opposed to a country, you can easily move from one state to another as a millionaire. Nothing can stop them from packing their bags and moving to Pennsylvania or head south (like me), and Murphy doesn't seem to get that.

Ciattarelli isn't perfect (Hugin would've made a much stronger GOV candidate especially during COVID) but I think people are severely underestimating Jack's chances.

[wbrocks67]

This is something people need to keep in mind, aside from NJ-Sen 2018 (which was a pretty unique circumstance), Republicans tend to overperform polling in New Jersey. Tom Kean was not expected to do as well as he did last November, and Republicans in NJ-05 and NJ-11 did much better than expected even as no-name candidates against popular incumbents.

New Jersey is certainly a largely local issues driven state and college-educated voters tend to split their votes. Think about Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. All three voted for Joe Biden by health margins, but VT and NH voted for Republican governors by large margins, and MA reelected a Republican governor by a 2-1 margin three years ago.

Murphy not only refuses to back down from his millionaires tax, he's campaigning on it while the state is in its absolute worst economic condition in history. Regardless if you're for or against such a tax, you have to admit implementing it on a statewide level in any state is ridiculous. As opposed to a country, you can easily move from one state to another as a millionaire. Nothing can stop them from packing their bags and moving to Pennsylvania or head south (like me), and Murphy doesn't seem to get that.

Ciattarelli isn't perfect (Hugin would've made a much stronger GOV candidate especially during COVID) but I think people are severely underestimating Jack's chances.

We've been over this though - house candidates got a lift from nontraditional Trump voters coming out to vote in 2020.

If anything, I think people are overestimating Jack's chances, as small as they are. He's been running a terrible campaign trying to be a MAGA hero but also a "moderate" hero. Literally ads running of him at headlining a Stop the Steal rally.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447957174324445190

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447957174324445190

Incredible ad lmao

[Asta]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

The state has no swing voters? Christie won 1/3 of democratic voters, 60% of moderates and 70% of white voters back in 2013.

He won pretty much every meaningful category except black voters and under 50k income group. He was somewhat like NJ's Charlie Baker back in the day.

I'll give you that Ciatarelli will make it probably close, but his task is harder than in Christie's era, because NJ whites have gotten more left, whereas non-whites have become more right-leaning. And since whites are the ones that consistently turn out, Ciatarelli will be a serious underdog. Hispanic and Asian voters make up only around 13-15% of voters. They won't be the key component that tilts the scale. It will always begin an end with courting white voters.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

The state has no swing voters? Christie won 1/3 of democratic voters, 60% of moderates and 70% of white voters back in 2013.

He won pretty much every meaningful category except black voters and under 50k income group. He was somewhat like NJ's Charlie Baker back in the day.

I'll give you that Ciatarelli will make it probably close, but his task is harder than in Christie's era, because NJ whites have gotten more left, whereas non-whites have become more right-leaning. And since whites are the ones that consistently turn out, Ciatarelli will be a serious underdog. Hispanic and Asian voters make up only around 13-15% of voters. They won't be the key component that tilts the scale. It will always begin an end with courting white voters.

what's your idea of close? lol

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447957174324445190

Incredible ad lmao

That's pretty f***ing funny, but what might be more striking to me is that there are apparently some New Jersey residents out there who don't know who Ciatarelli is. I guess they aren't being inundated with his ads before every Youtube video like I am.