NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/CBSPhilly/status/1431422469135638533

Interesting. I haven't even heard about this before. The only thing I'm seeing out of Ciatarelli's campaign is that internet ad where Murph says that if you are concerned about high taxes "New Jersey is not your state" which he somehow interprets to mean "if you don't like it you should leave!"

[darklordoftech]

2021 is on track to be the first time New Jersey elects a Governor that’s the same party as the President since 1985.

[Suburbia]

2021 is on track to be the first time New Jersey elects a Governor that’s the same party as the President since 1985.

This.

NJGOP needs to retool after their November loss....Guadagno and Ciattarelli are not compelling statewide; Christie sucked the oxygen out of the NJGOP.....

2025 they have the possibility with Ryan Peters.....

[Suburbia]

Gov. Murphy and President Biden held a news conference in Hillsborough Township, NJ, where Biden won and the last Republican to carry the town was Bush 2004.....

I think Guadagno carried Hillsborough in 2017...it's Ciattarelli's home town.....

[wbrocks67]

Ciatarelli is resorting to flying banners over the Jersey Shore that claim Murphy has said he wants to turn Jersey into California.

If that's the best he's got... woof

[Duke of York]

2021 is on track to be the first time New Jersey elects a Governor that’s the same party as the President since 1985.

This.

NJGOP needs to retool after their November loss....Guadagno and Ciattarelli are not compelling statewide; Christie sucked the oxygen out of the NJGOP.....

2025 they have the possibility with Ryan Peters.....

If Shelia Oliver is the Democratic nominee she could very well be Murphy’s successor.

[LabourJersey]

Ciatarelli is resorting to flying banners over the Jersey Shore that claim Murphy has said he wants to turn Jersey into California.

If that's the best he's got... woof

Ciattarelli just doesn't have any momentum right now, nor does he have a platform that matters to NJ voters.

Murphy will definitely win by 13-15%

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth has Murphy's job approval at 52-38 (+14) and his COVID response at 62-27 (+35)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_NJ_092321/

[Asta]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

[slothdem]

Ciatarelli is resorting to flying banners over the Jersey Shore that claim Murphy has said he wants to turn Jersey into California.

If that's the best he's got... woof

Most people in Jersey would rather live in California!

[wbrocks67]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

The undecideds tend to be more nonwhite, female, and younger so idk about that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Murphy

[Suburbia]

Murphy and Ciattarelli are arguing over police and race in a debate tonight....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSvOfnOuu3E

[Lord Admirale]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

[Suburbia]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

Murphy is running aggressive because he does not want Democrats to be apathetic since it is an off-year like 2009-10 and 2013-14

[Lord Admirale]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

Murphy is running aggressive because he does not want Democrats to be apathetic since it is an off-year like 2009-10 and 2013-14

I'm not sure how well it is working if he's going to act like this. I was expecting to come out on Murphy's side but now I'm on Ciattarelli's.

[Suburbia]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

Murphy is running aggressive because he does not want Democrats to be apathetic since it is an off-year like 2009-10 and 2013-14

I'm not sure how well it is working if he's going to act like this. I was expecting to come out on Murphy's side but now I'm on Ciattarelli's.

Murphy wants to intensify the Democratic base in Essex, Hudson, Union and Camden counties, while attracting suburban women in Somerset, Middlesex, Morris and Burlington...

[Lord Admirale]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

Murphy is running aggressive because he does not want Democrats to be apathetic since it is an off-year like 2009-10 and 2013-14

I'm not sure how well it is working if he's going to act like this. I was expecting to come out on Murphy's side but now I'm on Ciattarelli's.

Murphy wants to intensify the Democratic base in Essex, Hudson, Union and Camden counties, while attracting suburban women in Somerset, Middlesex, Morris and Burlington...

I can see it energizing Democratic centers but I don't see how it will help in the suburbs and exurbs. He acted a bit like Donald Trump with how he'd respond to Ciattarelli.

[Senator Incitatus]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

[jman123]

Do you see Ciattarelli making inroads in Hudson County Urban hispanic areas. Trump made inroads there in 2020 and Christie did as well in 2013

[Senator Incitatus]

Do you see Ciattarelli making inroads in Hudson County Urban hispanic areas. Trump made inroads there in 2020 and Christie did as well in 2013

Not really.

[Lord Admirale]

Do you see Ciattarelli making inroads in Hudson County Urban hispanic areas. Trump made inroads there in 2020 and Christie did as well in 2013

Urban areas have swung/trended towards incumbent presidents since 1992.

[Suburbia]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

[Lord Admirale]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli didn't come across Trumpian in the debate, sans his comments on vaccines.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You guys are very wrongly assuming that enough undecideds watched the debate, or cared about it, to make any sort of difference that will favor Ciatarelli. Murphy will win no matter what, and the margin will be determined but turnout. Ciatarelli's only chance to keep Murphy at his floor (which I think is 12%) is for turnout to benefit the GOP, as tends to happen in our off-year elections, to be fair. But even then, Murphy is still fairly popular, especially on his COVID response.

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli didn't come across Trumpian in the debate, sans his comments on vaccines.

Well, that's probably why Murphy is utilizing the campaign he is, as you see it. It's the California recall strategy where they're going to win no matter what, but to avoid overconfidence and to increase the margin Murphy seems to be attempting to incite fear of Ciatarelli as a Trumpist in sheep's clothing. He was trying to be fairly Trumpy in the primary, to be fair. The only way he wasn't was because he dared to admit that the 2020 election was fair and legitimate.