NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

[Suburbia]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

It's his home county. If Murphy is not going to win his home county, Ciattarelli could......

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

It's his home county. If Murphy is not going to win his home county, Ciattarelli could......

I still don't see it. Home counties don't really translate often in certain races. Monmouth and Somerset are very different places, and both are trending Democratic, one much faster than the other.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sorry to double-post, but I just saw a  Ciatarelli ad. He is running on taxes, as one would expect from a New Jersey Republican. It's probably the best move for him, like it was for Guadagno, but I doubt it will be enough to overcome the incumbency, cash, and party machine advantage Murphy has. How well he does, as I keep insisting, will probably depend on who turns out in November. It will probably be a 12 point loss on the low end, and a 15 points loss on the higher end.

[MATTROSE94]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

The country is not as interventionist as it used to be, even with Republicans. And in what way is the New Jersey Governor's race relevant to national foreign policy? Not only that but I doubt Afghanistan will be on anyone's minds anymore by November, barring some sort of 9/11 caliber terrorist attack occurring. That's the only way the Afghanistan withdrawal truly harms Biden and the Democratic Party in the long-term.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

Lmfao

[Suburbia]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

The country is not as interventionist as it used to be, even with Republicans. And in what way is the New Jersey Governor's race relevant to national foreign policy? Not only that but I doubt Afghanistan will be on anyone's minds anymore by November, barring some sort of 9/11 caliber terrorist attack occurring. That's the only way the Afghanistan withdrawal truly harms Biden and the Democratic Party in the long-term.

If that's the case, Mark Earley in Virginia and Bret Schundler in New Jersey should have won their governor's races post-9/11 when the GOP started to gain their 2001-02 edge, but they did not. Candidate quality matters.

Ciattarelli could win Somerset, he is more likely to win Morris. He really needs to win Bergen County, a major bellwether and Burlington County, the new bellwether in NJ politics.

[cg41386]

He isn't winning Somerset, and definitely not winning Bergen. Burlington, probably not.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

The country is not as interventionist as it used to be, even with Republicans. And in what way is the New Jersey Governor's race relevant to national foreign policy? Not only that but I doubt Afghanistan will be on anyone's minds anymore by November, barring some sort of 9/11 caliber terrorist attack occurring. That's the only way the Afghanistan withdrawal truly harms Biden and the Democratic Party in the long-term.

If that's the case, Mark Earley in Virginia and Bret Schundler in New Jersey should have won their governor's races post-9/11 when the GOP started to gain their 2001-02 edge, but they did not. Candidate quality matters.

Ciattarelli could win Somerset, he is more likely to win Morris. He really needs to win Bergen County, a major bellwether and Burlington County, the new bellwether in NJ politics.

It's hard to call any New Jersey county a bellwether. Bergen certainly has the most population, but it is not voting Republican at all. Those two counties going for Christie were only because his re-election was always guaranteed. They're nowhere close to being swingy. The only swing county in this election is probably Morris.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christie barely won in 2009 and that was with a scandal-plagued Dem incumbent, in a time with sizably less polarization. I don't see a repeat happening today.

[Senator Incitatus]

Monmouth Poll coming out this morning; Ciattarelli (and down-ballot Republicans) probably wants a sub-15 margin to even be able to fundraise going forward.

[Gass3268]

Monmouth Poll coming out this morning; Ciattarelli (and down-ballot Republicans) probably wants a sub-15 margin to even be able to fundraise going forward.

Murphy leads by 16, 52-36.

[Senator Incitatus]

re: Ciattarelli winning Somerset

New Jersey politics is intensely local. Gubernatorial candidates who came up through a local political machine (i.e. not Corzine, Murphy, or really Forrester) typically outperform the baseline in their home towns and counties by a few points, for organizational and ID reasons. In landslide losses, they tend to outperform the baseline by huge margins. It's not PA (where counties are listed on the ballot and there are multiple urban cores, so you get things like Specter-Flaherty '80) but it's a significant effect.

Year	Candidate	Home County	PVI∆
1973	Sandman	Cape May	+55.4
1977	Bateman	Somerset	+25.1
1981	Florio	Camden	+3.1
1989	Florio	Camden	+2.7
1989	Courter	Warren	+28.6
1993	Whitman	Somerset	-1.1
1997	McGreevey	Middlesex	+12.4
2001	Schundler	Hudson	+2.1
2005	Forrester*	Mercer	+5.2
2009	Christie	Morris	+0.2
2013	Buono	Middlesex	+2.8
2017	Guadagno	Monmouth	+5.2

For who knows what reason, this trend is reversed in Essex County.

Year	Candidate	Home County	PVI∆
1973	Byrne	Essex	-10.2
1981	Kean	Essex	-12.8
1985	Shapiro	Essex	-12.4

You can see it's flattened out in recent years, but I still think it's a very real phenomenon. (Christie was a somewhat unique case in that he'd gone "statewide" nearly a decade prior and had a lot of enemies in his own party in Morris.) Ironically, Somerset is the only county outside Essex that's bucked the trend, but in large part because Courter's House district covered most of Somerset, giving him a bit of a foothold and negating most gains Whitman could make there.

[Sir Mohamed]

Christie barely won in 2009 and that was with a scandal-plagued Dem incumbent, in a time with sizably less polarization. I don't see a repeat happening today.

I don't even see how this race is remotely close.

[Senator Incitatus]

Bad poll for Republicans. The campaign is probably over on Labor Day, and only then because I don't believe in calling races earlier.

If Republicans want a shred of hope from this poll, it's:
(a) Ciattarelli favorables are not underwater
(b) 32% say taxes are their primary issue

Conclusion is that their base will probably turn out and mitigate losses down-ballot.

[Suburbia]

He isn't winning Somerset, and definitely not winning Bergen. Burlington, probably not.

Somerset is his home county. Murphy will not win his home county, Monmouth, but Ciattarelli has to at least.

[Suburbia]

Bad poll for Republicans. The campaign is probably over on Labor Day, and only then because I don't believe in calling races earlier.

If Republicans want a shred of hope from this poll, it's:
(a) Ciattarelli favorables are not underwater
(b) 32% say taxes are their primary issue

Conclusion is that their base will probably turn out and mitigate losses down-ballot.

Can they replicate Whitman 1993-1997 and Christie-Guadagno 2009/2013 playbook?

[Roll Roons]

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.

[wbrocks67]

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.

I mean, that was a lot of high undecideds + low name recog too. The polls in 2017 actually nailed the race in NJ, from September on, so given that we're relatively close, this one seems like a good barometer.

Monmouth also nailed the race on October 3, 2017 too (the only time they polled it)

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.

I think it was a matter of turnout more than anything, especially with how obvious Murphy's win appeared to be. And that may be the great equalizer for Ciatarelli this year too. I've long maintained that about New jersey elections. Our off-year turnout is usually abysmal and benefits Republicans. I just think even that happening can't overcome Murphy's relative popularity, cash advantage, and machine advantage. At worst Murphy probably wins by 12, and by 15 or so at best.

[Senator Incitatus]

RGA ad attacking Murphy for going to Italy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4SAhvx3o80

Murphy's vacation is an incredibly stupid decision that he will almost definitely survive.

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.

Often the case in a standard, boring New Jersey race. Polls show a steady Democratic majority from the beginning and the Republican gobbles up the undecideds before falling short. All of Booker's three races have started and ended with him polling at a majority and finishing about the same, while his opponent gained significantly. Whitman '90 is also a famous example of this.

My wager is that it's because losing campaigns often can't afford to advertise in NJ, so undecideds looking for an excuse to vote against the better-known D walk into the booth and blindly vote R. We'll see if it holds.

And this:

I think it was a matter of turnout more than anything, especially with how obvious Murphy's win appeared to be. And that may be the great equalizer for Ciatarelli this year too. I've long maintained that about New jersey elections. Our off-year turnout is usually abysmal and benefits Republicans. I just think even that happening can't overcome Murphy's relative popularity, cash advantage, and machine advantage. At worst Murphy probably wins by 12, and by 15 or so at best.

My guess right now would be something like 55–44.

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli really has to pour resources in Middlesex------South Amboy, Sayreville, Old Bridge, Woodbridge, Dunellen are all for the taking---towns Christie carried in '09 and '13.

[Spark]

Gov. Murphy is likely to cruise to re-election. Just saw an ad today how Ciattarelli is trying to paint Murphy as an out of touch elite connected to Wall St. This won't work because of how he handled the COVID pandemic and fought for working class New Jerseyans.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CBSPhilly/status/1431422469135638533