NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

Crime and taxes didn't work for Trump or Kean.

It could. Every year is different. I think Kean will win next year's rematch anyway, Malinowski is vulnerable to defeat....

Murphy will win by 10 points at least....

Depending how the districts are redrawn, Kean could indeed beat Malinowski if he becomes the fall guy in exchange for Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill getting safer districts; as I think is possible, especially with Malinowski's ethical issues that have recently come to light. Or perhaps he'll run in Bonnie Watson Coleman's new district if she decides to retire. I would begrudgingly be fine with that though, better Kean than Hirsch Singh or someone similarly unhinged if New Jersey absolutely has to have another Republican representative.

[Suburbia]

Do you think Ciattarelli should run a racialized campaign, appealing more to white suburban voters, to gain traction?

[Suburbia]

Nikki Haley endorses Ciattarelli for governor, and some MAGA rightists aren't happy...

https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/2021/07/10/trump-critic-nikki-haley-endorses-jack-ciattarelli-for-governor-in-new-jersey/

Ciattarelli will lose by 5-15 points, he hasn't even picked a running mate yet, they probably don't want to be on the losing Ciattarelli ticket, they don't want to end up like Carlos Rendo, Guadagno's running mate who lost with her....

Chris Christie sucked the oxygen out of the NJGOP....Christie's 2009 and 2013 playbook is still workable but it takes the right Republican....that Republican may not emerge until 2025, 2029 or 2033.....

[Dead Parrot]

Did we ever get word on what Dem turnout was like on primary day?

They finally posted official turnout numbers: 414k Dem primary voters, 348k GOP primary voters.

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

Crime and taxes didn't work for Trump or Kean.

It could. Every year is different. I think Kean will win next year's rematch anyway, Malinowski is vulnerable to defeat....

Murphy will win by 10 points at least....

Depending how the districts are redrawn, Kean could indeed beat Malinowski if he becomes the fall guy in exchange for Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill getting safer districts; as I think is possible, especially with Malinowski's ethical issues that have recently come to light. Or perhaps he'll run in Bonnie Watson Coleman's new district if she decides to retire. I would begrudgingly be fine with that though, better Kean than Hirsch Singh or someone similarly unhinged if New Jersey absolutely has to have another Republican representative.

Kean is running again in 2022, I think this will be one of the GOP's biggest House pickups in 2022....

[Suburbia]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

He is only a "moderate" because he acknowledged that Biden won the election. Other than that he is still your generic Republican of today, which means he is still pretty far right in most other respects.

[Suburbia]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

He is only a "moderate" because he acknowledged that Biden won the election. Other than that he is still your generic Republican of today, which means he is still pretty far right in most other respects.

But he is pro-choice and he has a suburban appeal.....he could flip Somerset or even middle class towns in Middlesex...

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

He is only a "moderate" because he acknowledged that Biden won the election. Other than that he is still your generic Republican of today, which means he is still pretty far right in most other respects.

But he is pro-choice and he has a suburban appeal.....he could flip Somerset or even middle class towns in Middlesex...

The GOP primary indicated otherwise.

[Suburbia]

It's clear that Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose because he did not pick a running mate as expected, he said he would have by June 30.

It's now July 30, past the deadline...

Someone probably does not want to be a sacrifical lamb and run with the loser, like Carlos Rendo and Kim Guadagno....

Ryan Peters, etc. have a political future, they don't want to go down that path of being a forgettable person who ran on the losing ticket.

Ciattarelli should just perform well in the fall debates and hope to lose by a respectable 10-15 points, and hope to run for a Congressional seat in 2022---he could run against Sherrill or Watson Coleman if some parts of Somerset gets added to the NJ-11/NJ-12....

[Dead Parrot]

Ciattarelli picks Diane Allen as his running mate:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1422278997329817608

[Suburbia]

Allen is a older woman, she has experience and she is moderate. Ciattarelli is probably to the right of Allen, ideologically.

Allen was the female moderate choice for Republicans in 2002 when she ran for U.S. Senate.

Allen may be too moderate for the base!!!

She is for equal pay!!! RINO!!!

Someone like Allen is not acceptable to the Hirsh Singhs and Marsha Blackburns of the world!!!

They will lose to Murphy, however.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Allen is a older woman, she has experience and she is moderate. Ciattarelli is probably to the right of Allen, ideologically.

Allen was the female moderate choice for Republicans in 2002 when she ran for U.S. Senate.

Allen may be too moderate for the base!!!

She is for equal pay!!! RINO!!!

Someone like Allen is not acceptable to the Hirsh Singhs and Marsha Blackburns of the world!!!

They will lose to Murphy, however.

You're overestimating the relevance of Lieutenant Governor picks in our elections. Interestingly though, in the completely unlikely circumstance that Ciatarelli won, we still wouldn't have had a male Lieutenant Governor yet.

[Suburbia]

Allen is a older woman, she has experience and she is moderate. Ciattarelli is probably to the right of Allen, ideologically.

Allen was the female moderate choice for Republicans in 2002 when she ran for U.S. Senate.

Allen may be too moderate for the base!!!

She is for equal pay!!! RINO!!!

Someone like Allen is not acceptable to the Hirsh Singhs and Marsha Blackburns of the world!!!

They will lose to Murphy, however.

You're overestimating the relevance of Lieutenant Governor picks in our elections. Interestingly though, in the completely unlikely circumstance that Ciatarelli won, we still wouldn't have had a male Lieutenant Governor yet.

True. They will lose to Murphy, however.

[Suburbia]

It is all set: Ciattarelli-Allen for the Republicans and Murphy-Oliver for the Democrats.

Murphy wins by 5-15 points, and he gets his second term.

Who will win Morris and Somerset? Can Murphy flip Morris?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is all set: Ciattarelli-Allen for the Republicans and Murphy-Oliver for the Democrats.

Murphy wins by 5-15 points, and he gets his second term.

Who will win Morris and Somerset? Can Murphy flip Morris?

Murphy will win Somerset County. probably not by as much as Biden though, that may be nearly impossible to replicate. I'm still in disbelief that it voted to the left of Bergen in 2020!

Morris will probably back Ciatarelli in the end by the low single digits. The more affluent New Jersey suburbanites seem to make distinctions between local, state, and national elections; going off of how 2019 went and the typically whiter, more educated turnout that our state sees in off-year elections.

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

Meanwhile, Murphy going viral with this from yesterday. It's not even like there is a GOV campaign going on lol.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1422999259876560896

[Progressive Pessimist]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

Meanwhile, Murphy going viral with this from yesterday. It's not even like there is a GOV campaign going on lol.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1422999259876560896

This sounds like something a Midwestern Governor would say, for some reason, to me.

[Senator Incitatus]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

[Suburbia]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

No, I don't think so. He knows he is going to lose barring Murphy imploding, which he could do, since he is going on vacation to Italy soon; that could turn voters off because they will say that he is a hypocrite telling us working Jerseyans to stay home and lock down and his rich self can go on vacation to his Italian villa

Chris Christie has NOT endorsed Jack; Christie is still seen as the face of the NJGOP, he put the party in debt; he tainted the party, but he is more well-liked than Christie Todd "Whitless" as the base calls her, they consider her a RINO because she is too moderate.....

Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose, he probably runs for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024, while Bob Hugin may run in 2025, or run for Senate again in 2024

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

No, I don't think so. He knows he is going to lose barring Murphy imploding, which he could do, since he is going on vacation to Italy soon; that could turn voters off because they will say that he is a hypocrite telling us working Jerseyans to stay home and lock down and his rich self can go on vacation to his Italian villa

Chris Christie has NOT endorsed Jack; Christie is still seen as the face of the NJGOP, he put the party in debt; he tainted the party, but he is more well-liked than Christie Todd "Whitless" as the base calls her, they consider her a RINO because she is too moderate.....

Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose, he probably runs for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024, while Bob Hugin may run in 2025, or run for Senate again in 2024

He is not saying that.

[MATTROSE94]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

No, I don't think so. He knows he is going to lose barring Murphy imploding, which he could do, since he is going on vacation to Italy soon; that could turn voters off because they will say that he is a hypocrite telling us working Jerseyans to stay home and lock down and his rich self can go on vacation to his Italian villa

Chris Christie has NOT endorsed Jack; Christie is still seen as the face of the NJGOP, he put the party in debt; he tainted the party, but he is more well-liked than Christie Todd "Whitless" as the base calls her, they consider her a RINO because she is too moderate.....

Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose, he probably runs for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024, while Bob Hugin may run in 2025, or run for Senate again in 2024

I agree that Jack Ciatarelli is running a very weak campaign, as he does not have the support of the Trump base of the Republican Party and is pretty moderate on most social issues. He probably only gets 43% of the vote and only carries Monmouth, Ocean, Cape May, Salem, Warren, Sussex, Hunderton, and Somerset Counties.

[jman123]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

No, I don't think so. He knows he is going to lose barring Murphy imploding, which he could do, since he is going on vacation to Italy soon; that could turn voters off because they will say that he is a hypocrite telling us working Jerseyans to stay home and lock down and his rich self can go on vacation to his Italian villa

Chris Christie has NOT endorsed Jack; Christie is still seen as the face of the NJGOP, he put the party in debt; he tainted the party, but he is more well-liked than Christie Todd "Whitless" as the base calls her, they consider her a RINO because she is too moderate.....

Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose, he probably runs for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024, while Bob Hugin may run in 2025, or run for Senate again in 2024

I agree that Jack Ciatarelli is running a very weak campaign, as he does not have the support of the Trump base of the Republican Party and is pretty moderate on most social issues. He probably only gets 43% of the vote and only carries Monmouth, Ocean, Cape May, Salem, Warren, Sussex, Hunderton, and Somerset Counties.

True. He only got a plurality of the gop primary vote. The 2 trump candidates combined got over 50 percent of primary vote.