More likely to lose: Matt Bevin or David Perdue?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Obviously Bevin, because he's unpopular (and everyone who disapproves of him will obviously vote against him), and Kentucky is an elastic WWC #Populist state that elected a few Democrats just FOUR years ago. Meanwhile, Georgia is a hella inelastic state where Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.9%, and Perdue is "inoffensive", while everything went perfectly for Abrams in 2018, so there's no way Democrats could ever possibly improve on her performance, especially since the mere presence of Sanders in the Democratic primary will scare Cobb county voters into voting Republican again in droves.

In all seriousness, Perdue for sure.

[Yellowhammer]

Neither is at all likely to lose

[Ilhan Apologist]

I mean, if Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont (plus almost Connecticut) were willing to elect Republican governors in 2018, it's not terribly inconceivable that a solid red state can still elect a Democratic governor.

[Roll Roons]

I mean, if Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont (plus almost Connecticut) were willing to elect Republican governors in 2018, it's not terribly inconceivable that a solid red state can still elect a Democratic governor.

Plus there was a solidly red state that DID elect a Democratic governor in 2018.

[Ilhan Apologist]

I mean, if Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont (plus almost Connecticut) were willing to elect Republican governors in 2018, it's not terribly inconceivable that a solid red state can still elect a Democratic governor.

Yes it is. It is much harder for Dems to win in red state gubernatorial races than vice versa these days. Part of that is simply because a lot of center-lefties are quick to fall for the "Reasonable Republican" schtick. Republicans are at least consistent in branding all Democrats from Joe Manchin to JBE to Sanders as communist socialists.

Is that why Joe Manchin lost in a landslide last year?

[Ilhan Apologist]

I mean, if Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont (plus almost Connecticut) were willing to elect Republican governors in 2018, it's not terribly inconceivable that a solid red state can still elect a Democratic governor.

Yes it is. It is much harder for Dems to win in red state gubernatorial races than vice versa these days. Part of that is simply because a lot of center-lefties are quick to fall for the "Reasonable Republican" schtick. Republicans are at least consistent in branding all Democrats from Joe Manchin to JBE to Sanders as communist socialists.

Is that why Joe Manchin lost in a landslide last year?

Where in my post did I say that it was impossible for Dems to win red states? Simply that it is much harder, especially at the gubernatorial level.

I mean, Joe Manchin just won the second reddest state in the country. Jon Tester won a Trump+20 state. Republicans, meanwhile, do not hold a senate seat in a state that Clinton won by more than 5 points.

Also, if anything it seems that gubernatorial elections are LESS partisan than senate elections.

[Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian]

Gonna get a lot of flack for this but imo Bevin aka least popular Gov in the country is more likely to lose. The guy's approvals are down the toilet and KY seems to be fairly elastic on the state level. Plus Perdue has GA's run-off system benefiting him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kind of... even? Bevin's approval is in the toilet and that might matter enough to almost make him lose. Perdue's approval is actually really good at +20 or so, not that it matters much, but that might help him win by 7 instead of 4 if it holds.

[IceSpear]

Purdue by default. Bevin is inevitable.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Perdue is an out-and-out fascist - but still less likely to lose.

[MT Treasurer]

Fairly negligible difference. If we were talking about two Senate races here, Bevin would be the obvious choice for me despite off-year dynamics which favor Democrats, but we’re not. I think both win reelection fairly narrowly, although Perdue obviously has a far lower ceiling than Bevin. Gun to my head, Bevin +3-5%, Perdue +1-2% (maybe in a runoff).

I mean, Joe Manchin just won the second reddest state in the country. Jon Tester won a Trump+20 state. Republicans, meanwhile, do not hold a senate seat in a state that Clinton won by more than 5 points.

Also, if anything it seems that gubernatorial elections are LESS partisan than senate elections.

^This.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Bevin, of course.

[andjey]

Matt Bevin

[Ilhan Apologist]

If we were talking about two Senate races here, Bevin would be the obvious choice for me

As more likely to lose? Or win?

[MT Treasurer]

If we were talking about two Senate races here, Bevin would be the obvious choice for me

As more likely to lose? Or win?

Oh, I meant Bevin would be more likely to win a Senate race. Sorry for that, good catch.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Fairly negligible difference. If we were talking about two Senate races here, Bevin would be the obvious choice for me despite off-year dynamics which favor Democrats, but we’re not. I think both win reelection fairly narrowly, although Perdue obviously has a far lower ceiling than Bevin. Gun to my head, Bevin +3-5%, Perdue +1-2% (maybe in a runoff).

I mean, Joe Manchin just won the second reddest state in the country. Jon Tester won a Trump+20 state. Republicans, meanwhile, do not hold a senate seat in a state that Clinton won by more than 5 points.

Also, if anything it seems that gubernatorial elections are LESS partisan than senate elections.

^This.

I thought you argued that GA is basically a Toss-Up, since we're all underestimating how quickly it's trending Democratic.

[Lechasseur]

Gonna get a lot of flack for this but imo Bevin aka least popular Gov in the country is more likely to lose. The guy's approvals are down the toilet and KY seems to be fairly elastic on the state level. Plus Perdue has GA's run-off system benefiting him.

This

[Politician]

Gonna get a lot of flack for this but imo Bevin aka least popular Gov in the country is more likely to lose. The guy's approvals are down the toilet and KY seems to be fairly elastic on the state level. Plus Perdue has GA's run-off system benefiting him.

Good job.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kind of... even? Bevin's approval is in the toilet and that might matter enough to almost make him lose. Perdue's approval is actually really good at +20 or so, not that it matters much, but that might help him win by 7 instead of 4 if it holds.

I still stand by this statement. He could lose by a narrow margin like Bevin but more likely win by a few points.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Not really sure at this point, but the recent election results in Kentucky make me think Bevin, not gonna lie

[Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian]

Gonna get a lot of flack for this but imo Bevin aka least popular Gov in the country is more likely to lose. The guy's approvals are down the toilet and KY seems to be fairly elastic on the state level. Plus Perdue has GA's run-off system benefiting him.

Good job.

Thanks! Brought a big ol’ smile to my face reading that old comment today haha

[MT Treasurer]

Well, technically Perdue could still lose by more than Bevin, so you could still be wrong.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Well, technically Perdue could still lose by more than Bevin, so you could still be wrong.

Well, on the more likely topic, Perdue has a sub 100% chance of losing, so he beats Bevin by default

[SnowLabrador]

Well, technically Perdue could still lose by more than Bevin, so you could still be wrong.

Well, on the more likely topic, Perdue has a sub 100% chance of losing, so he beats Bevin by default

Yes. Although this thread should probably be locked at this point, since Bevin's already lost.