LA-JMC: Edwards leads, tons of undecideds

[smoltchanov]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

[smoltchanov]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

Plenty enough for Massachusetts to reelect Baker by 33 points while also reelecting Warren by 24 points.

This Chicken Little crap really is unspeakably aggravating.

As people correctly stated - Massachusetts is NOT in the South. South is more polarized (by race, party, and so on) now, then most other areas, and surely - then North-East, where people such as Baker are mostly elected. In many southern races you can take minority percentage of district population, add very little (say 5%), and, volia, you get a percentage the Democratic candidate will get next election, as whites began to vote 90+% Republican... Not so in other parts of US, but almost always true for Louisiana. If Republican will run boring (but - clean) conservative candidate (and Abraham seems to be exactly that) - they will have at least 50-50 chance... Simply because of "R" and "D" letters after candidate names AND because Louisiana is DEEP Southern state.

[smoltchanov]

The deep south is gonna teach everybody a lesson in inelasticity.

Sad, but possible. Except for some big cities (Atlanta, New Orleans) Deep South whites became to vote as a mirror of Deep South Blacks. Right now it's gradually becoming true even at local level, more so - on state legislative (especially after this year elections, when most of the Democratic "old guard", which were able to hold otherwise strongly Republican districts because of personality and relatively conservative voting record, leaves in Louisiana and Mississippi), and even more - on statewide. I will not even mention federal elections.

[smoltchanov]

Not all of the Deep South will stay Red forever.

Agree. But so far - most will. Demographical changes are slow thing...

[smoltchanov]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

Well, Trump isn't "everyone". For him it's a natural thing...

[smoltchanov]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

Well, Trump isn't "everyone". For him it's a natural thing...

My cousin thinks JBE is the Dem version of David Treen: nice guy, but faced hostile opposition-controlled LA State Legislature.

Quite possible. The politics became mostly scoundrel's business now. Time of "nice guys" is gone (at least - temporarily, may be - forever).

[smoltchanov]

He'll squeak it out by 2-4% after signing the heartbeat bill.

May be. But, after reading criticism of him for this on DKE and other sites  i will ask: what other choices he had? Louisiana is very conservative on choice, majority of Democratic caucus (including many Black legislators) regularily gets 80-100 ratings from Louisiana Right to life, and so on... Literally only about 10% of lousiana legislature, and about 1/3 of Democratic caucus may be called even a "moderate" on this issue.

[smoltchanov]

Edwards would of won whether or not he signed this heartbeat bill. The vast majority of LA voters could care less about his position on anything

Not sure. Even more - absolutely convinced, that it's not so. He would instantly become excellent target for Republicans as "baby killers apprentice" had he not signed. And most people in Louisiana would tend to agree - outside of majority Black areas (and frequently - there, too, except on pure economic issues) state is VERY conservative. That's why i believe Louisiana legislature will see some more Republican gains in this year elections..

[smoltchanov]

Edwards would of won whether or not he signed this heartbeat bill. The vast majority of LA voters could care less about his position on anything

Not sure. Even more - absolutely convinced, that it's not so. He would instantly become excellent target for Republicans as "baby killers apprentice" had he not signed. And most people in Louisiana would tend to agree - outside of majority Black areas (and frequently - there, too, except on pure economic issues) state is VERY conservative. That's why i believe Louisiana legislature will see some more Republican gains in this year elections..

Kathleen Blanco signed anti-abortion legislation as governor and still lost to Jindal

She never lost.

[smoltchanov]

I still think LA Dems need to

1.) Recruit stronger candidates to seek statewide office (Big City Mayors, State lawmakers, etc.,)

2.) Plan a 20-30+ year strategy & stay with it.

Essentially - that's true for Democrats in almost all red states...