LA-JMC: Edwards leads, tons of undecideds

[LoneStarDem]

The runoff is in November NOT December to the idiot who mentioned that.

[S019]

The runoff is in November NOT December to the idiot who mentioned that.

LA law is weird, Senate runoffs in December, and governor runoffs in November

[LoneStarDem]

JBE has enough juice to overcome Abraham.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The deep south is gonna teach everybody a lesson in inelasticity.

[smoltchanov]

The deep south is gonna teach everybody a lesson in inelasticity.

Sad, but possible. Except for some big cities (Atlanta, New Orleans) Deep South whites became to vote as a mirror of Deep South Blacks. Right now it's gradually becoming true even at local level, more so - on state legislative (especially after this year elections, when most of the Democratic "old guard", which were able to hold otherwise strongly Republican districts because of personality and relatively conservative voting record, leaves in Louisiana and Mississippi), and even more - on statewide. I will not even mention federal elections.

[LoneStarDem]

Not all of the Deep South will stay Red forever.

[smoltchanov]

Not all of the Deep South will stay Red forever.

Agree. But so far - most will. Demographical changes are slow thing...

[MT Treasurer]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

Plenty enough for Massachusetts to reelect Baker by 33 points while also reelecting Warren by 24 points.

This Chicken Little crap really is unspeakably aggravating.

Don’t forget Hogan in unbelievably inelastic, polarized Maryland, who managed to win reelection by 12 points in a Democratic tsunami while Cardin won by 35 points.

This might not be the best poll for Democrats, but it’s worth noting that their final 2015 poll underestimated JBE pretty substantially, and I seem to remember people arguing that undecideds would surely break against Democrats in that race because of Obama, Deep South, etc. Well, we all know how that turned out. JBE could lose if his approval rating starts to sink and Republicans run a competent candidate against him, but Louisiana isn’t going to vote out a popular governor who won an open seat in a very unfavorable national environment just because of "polarization" or whatever. Likely D, closer to Lean than Safe.

[LoneStarDem]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

[smoltchanov]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

Well, Trump isn't "everyone". For him it's a natural thing...

[LoneStarDem]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

Well, Trump isn't "everyone". For him it's a natural thing...

My cousin thinks JBE is the Dem version of David Treen: nice guy, but faced hostile opposition-controlled LA State Legislature.

[smoltchanov]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

Well, Trump isn't "everyone". For him it's a natural thing...

My cousin thinks JBE is the Dem version of David Treen: nice guy, but faced hostile opposition-controlled LA State Legislature.

Quite possible. The politics became mostly scoundrel's business now. Time of "nice guys" is gone (at least - temporarily, may be - forever).

[LoneStarDem]

POTUS Trump campaigning in LA today.

It seems that everyone is ganging up on JBE.

Well, Trump isn't "everyone". For him it's a natural thing...

My cousin thinks JBE is the Dem version of David Treen: nice guy, but faced hostile opposition-controlled LA State Legislature.

Quite possible. The politics became mostly scoundrel's business now. Time of "nice guys" is gone (at least - temporarily, may be - forever).

My cousin also told me that when Treen became LA's 51st Governor on March 10th, 1980, staunch allies of EWE began plotting to undermine his governorship. It didn't help that LA was facing an economic downturn on Treen's watch as well as massive unemployment despite his efforts to stop the economic downturn, etc.,

On JBE: I think he'll try to avoid ending up like Treen & win reelection.

[Suburbia]

Edwards, Hood, Beshear win in November, teaching Democrats how to win in the South.

[One Term Floridian]

Edwards, Hood, Beshear win in November, teaching Democrats how to win in the South.

This would be the worst kick-off possible for the Trump 2020 campaign lol

[LoneStarDem]

Edwards, Hood, Beshear win in November, teaching Democrats how to win in the South.

This would be the worst kick-off possible for the Trump 2020 campaign lol

We're going to find out in a few months.

[LoneStarDem]

He'll squeak it out by 2-4% after signing the heartbeat bill.

JBE by double digits.

[Suburbia]

Could Scalise reconsider and potentially defeat him based on sympathy?

I hope not.

[smoltchanov]

He'll squeak it out by 2-4% after signing the heartbeat bill.

May be. But, after reading criticism of him for this on DKE and other sites  i will ask: what other choices he had? Louisiana is very conservative on choice, majority of Democratic caucus (including many Black legislators) regularily gets 80-100 ratings from Louisiana Right to life, and so on... Literally only about 10% of lousiana legislature, and about 1/3 of Democratic caucus may be called even a "moderate" on this issue.

[junior chįmp]

Edwards would of won whether or not he signed this heartbeat bill. The vast majority of LA voters could care less about his position on anything

[smoltchanov]

Edwards would of won whether or not he signed this heartbeat bill. The vast majority of LA voters could care less about his position on anything

Not sure. Even more - absolutely convinced, that it's not so. He would instantly become excellent target for Republicans as "baby killers apprentice" had he not signed. And most people in Louisiana would tend to agree - outside of majority Black areas (and frequently - there, too, except on pure economic issues) state is VERY conservative. That's why i believe Louisiana legislature will see some more Republican gains in this year elections..

[LoneStarDem]

We're going to find out soon enough.

[pppolitics]

He'll squeak it out by 2-4% after signing the heartbeat bill.

May be. But, after reading criticism of him for this on DKE and other sites  i will ask: what other choices he had? Louisiana is very conservative on choice, majority of Democratic caucus (including many Black legislators) regularily gets 80-100 ratings from Louisiana Right to life, and so on... Literally only about 10% of lousiana legislature, and about 1/3 of Democratic caucus may be called even a "moderate" on this issue.

It might even help him.

He gets to go around and say, "See! I am not your typical Democrat" and take the abortion issue off the table.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Edwards, Hood, Beshear win in November, teaching Democrats how to win in the South.

This would be the worst kick-off possible for the Trump 2020 campaign lol

Maybe Steve Beshear can knock off Mitch in 2020 with the #SCRANTONPOPULISTFF on the top of the ticket.

[S019]

Edwards, Hood, Beshear win in November, teaching Democrats how to win in the South.

This would be the worst kick-off possible for the Trump 2020 campaign lol

Maybe Steve Beshear can knock off Mitch in 2020 with the #SCRANTONPOPULISTFF on the top of the ticket.

Ha, NO!!


Mitch is Safe, but his margin will close to Likely, Lean margin, if Dems are lucky, but KY on a federal level is too inelastic for him to lose