If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052?
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  If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052?
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Author Topic: If 2016 trends continue indefinitely, what will the national map be in 2052?  (Read 1180 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: February 27, 2019, 05:05:31 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2019, 05:16:03 PM »

Close election:


Battleground map:
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2019, 05:28:20 PM »

nj is actually trending d just masked by obamas overperformance in 2012 due to sandy. also IL literally SWUNG D in 2016
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2019, 05:41:16 PM »

nj is actually trending d just masked by obamas overperformance in 2012 due to sandy. also IL literally SWUNG D in 2016

These maps seem reasonable for the most part, but I agree with lfromnj about New Jersey and Illinois. New Jersey moved strongly towards the Democrats last year, as they nearly wiped out the state's Republican congressional delegation. It is becoming yet more diverse, and suburban voters seem to be abandoning the Republican Party in large numbers. I personally think New Jersey will still be Safe Democratic by 2050, and probably even more so than it is now. As for Illinois, not only is Chicago powerfully Democratic (and experiencing limited population loss, compared to other Midwestern cities), the Chicago suburbs (DuPage, Kane, Lake, Will, McHenry) are trending strongly towards the Democrats, canceling out Republican gains in Downstate Illinois. I think Cook County + the Chicago suburbs will keep Illinois in the Democratic column.

I would also argue that Minnesota and Pennsylvania will at least be tossup states in 2050. The Twin Cities and their suburbs are canceling out Republican gains in rural areas, while the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, as well as places like Cumberland County, Lancaster County, etc. are moving towards the Democrats. However, I agree with Politician about most of the remaining states. Kansas will definitely be competitive by then, if Johnson County, Shawnee County, and Sedgwick County continue to trend Democratic (coupled with demographic change), and South Carolina will as well. I also think that the Upper New England states will go Republican, but I think Vermont will remain a Democratic stronghold. New Hampshire also seems to be trending towards the Democrats, not away from them.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2019, 06:06:37 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2019, 06:50:58 PM »

If every state's trend was literally the exact same as 2016 in the next nine elections, the 50-50 PV map would mathematically be this:



Close Calls:
Kansas: D+ 3.86
North Carolina: R+ 4.4
New Mexico: D+ 4.59

Also, of course, numerous states are over 100% for a party, so take this with a grain of salt.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2019, 08:11:19 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2019, 08:13:26 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.

This process has been happening since 96.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2019, 08:17:04 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.

This process has been happening since 96.



That is true, but it's looking more likely then not that it will continue for a few more decades.
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cvparty
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2019, 08:58:28 AM »

if you use the literal mathematical margin this is what you get
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2019, 02:02:07 PM »

Just for fun, a trend map from 2016 Pres to 2018 house, extrapolated to 2052.



The only state within 10% is Maryland.
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Computer89
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2019, 02:10:35 PM »

The question is as in the title. The 2018 midterms saw the trends from the 2016 election continue, in full force. Democrats made gains in urban and suburban areas, while Republicans gained in exurban and rural areas. Assuming that these trends continue on a nationwide basis, indefinitely, coupled with demographic changes (America is expected to become majority non-white by the 2040s), what will the national electoral map look like by 2052? Which states do you think will be Safe Democratic or Safe Republican by that time? Which ones will be swing states? What will a Democratic or Republican victory look like by then? What will the party coalitions look like?

Discuss below.

Trends don't continue indefinitely, so I assume this is just a "fun exercise."

Of course I know that trends don't continue indefinitely, but what we saw in the 2016 and 2018 elections could be the start of a process of gradual realignment. Such processes take decades to come to fruition.

This process has been happening since 96.




That doesnt mean it will continue and in fact will stop and reverse it self once the tipping point is reached. The Tipping Point is reached if any of the Coastal States fall GOP or if Texas Falls to the Dems and once that happens things will realign big time over the next 4-8 years after that.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2019, 12:12:25 AM »

I was talking with DFW the other night. And I told him, that if you became immortal and left planet Earth for 100 million years and came back, you would not recognize it. The continents would look completely different.

That is what happens to the electoral map. It is always constantly changing.

I Think we will see a continuation of what we have seen with mild changes based on the candidates.
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AN63093
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2019, 10:30:28 AM »

if you use the literal mathematical margin this is what you get



That's actually not a bad map, minus maybe KS and DE.  Also probably a little too soon for NY, and it's possible IL could move to the right, depending on if Chicago continues to lose population.  Not so sure about NV either.

But in general, that's sorta how I see the electoral map looking in 20-30 years.
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AN63093
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2019, 01:40:50 PM »

Oops.. I ignored HI on that map... Wink

Yeah, it isn't flipping either, LOL.

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S019
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2019, 01:53:05 PM »

If every state's trend was literally the exact same as 2016 in the next nine elections, the 50-50 PV map would mathematically be this:



Close Calls:
Kansas: D+ 3.86
North Carolina: R+ 4.4
New Mexico: D+ 4.59

Also, of course, numerous states are over 100% for a party, so take this with a grain of salt.


Don't buy NY, HI, NV, DE, or NJ

I do think South New England trends R

Also UT was just because of McMullin


Also while KS is trending D, it has a strong rural population

NM will literally be the next CA, by then

NC is also trending D

Also lol at VT and ME-01

Also by then I expect minorities to flip MS, SC, and FL


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DPKdebator
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2019, 04:07:03 PM »

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