Maricopa Couty, AZ
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  Maricopa Couty, AZ		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How would you rate Maricopa county ?
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tossup		  
#5
Lean D		  
#6
Likely D		  
#7
Safe D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 79

Author Topic: Maricopa Couty, AZ  (Read 1582 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: May 06, 2019, 09:44:38 AM »
Maricopa County was the largest county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but he won it by a far smaller margin than Romney and in 2018 Sinema won the once very conservative county 51/47.

How would you rate it  
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2019, 09:48:48 AM »
Pure toss-up. Votes a point or two left of the state.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2019, 09:50:23 AM »
Pure toss-up. As it goes, so goes AZ as a whole.

Beto, Harris and Biden have the best shot among current Dem frontrunners.
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OneJ
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2019, 09:51:57 AM »
Yeah, tossup seems to be the best rating for now.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2019, 10:23:45 AM »
Lean D, closer to Likely D than Tossup. Trump isn’t winning this county in 2020.
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Politician
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E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2019, 11:03:26 AM »
Tossup/Tilt D
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here2view
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2019, 11:14:22 AM »
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2019, 11:15:52 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 06, 2019, 09:50:23 AM
Pure toss-up. As it goes, so goes AZ as a whole.

Beto, Harris and Biden have the best shot among current Dem frontrunners.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2019, 11:53:29 AM »
Absolute pure tossup, gun to head, dem wins it 48-47.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2019, 12:08:58 PM »
Strong tilt D
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2019, 12:14:01 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on May 06, 2019, 09:48:48 AM
Pure toss-up. Votes a point or two left of the state.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2019, 12:16:32 PM »
From 2018, Maricopa County is 2 points to the left of Arizona as a whole.

If AZ is a toss up, Maricopa County would be a lean D.

Since I think that AZ is a lean D right now, Maricopa County is probably a likely D.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2019, 12:19:57 PM »
Tossup, the Democratic nominee wins it by between 1 and 3 points.
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andjey
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2019, 12:39:29 PM »
Lean D, closer to Tossup than Likely D
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TDAS04
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2019, 01:57:38 PM »
Lean D.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2019, 02:30:19 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 09:44:38 AM
Maricopa County was the largest county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but he won it by a far smaller margin than Romney and in 2018 Sinema won the once very conservative county 51/47.

How would you rate it  

My rating : Tossup

Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 50/49
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 51/46
Harris vs Trump : Trump wins 50/48
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2019, 03:48:52 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 02:30:19 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 09:44:38 AM
Maricopa County was the largest county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but he won it by a far smaller margin than Romney and in 2018 Sinema won the once very conservative county 51/47.

How would you rate it  

My rating : Tossup

Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 50/49
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 51/46
Harris vs Trump : Trump wins 50/48

Umm in a Biden vs Trump match in Maricopa, more than 1% of voters would vote 3rd party.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2019, 04:08:04 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on May 06, 2019, 03:48:52 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 02:30:19 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 09:44:38 AM
Maricopa County was the largest county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but he won it by a far smaller margin than Romney and in 2018 Sinema won the once very conservative county 51/47.

How would you rate it  

My rating : Tossup

Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 50/49
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 51/46
Harris vs Trump : Trump wins 50/48

Umm in a Biden vs Trump match in Maricopa, more than 1% of voters would vote 3rd party.

I don't think so. The number of people voting for a third party will likely drop considerably compared to 2016.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2019, 04:40:28 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 04:08:04 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on May 06, 2019, 03:48:52 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 02:30:19 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 09:44:38 AM
Maricopa County was the largest county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but he won it by a far smaller margin than Romney and in 2018 Sinema won the once very conservative county 51/47.

How would you rate it  

My rating : Tossup

Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 50/49
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 51/46
Harris vs Trump : Trump wins 50/48

Umm in a Biden vs Trump match in Maricopa, more than 1% of voters would vote 3rd party.

I don't think so. The number of people voting for a third party will likely drop considerably compared to 2016.

Maybe, but not to 1% in Maricopa.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2019, 04:50:05 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on May 06, 2019, 04:40:28 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 04:08:04 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on May 06, 2019, 03:48:52 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 02:30:19 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 06, 2019, 09:44:38 AM
Maricopa County was the largest county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but he won it by a far smaller margin than Romney and in 2018 Sinema won the once very conservative county 51/47.

How would you rate it  

My rating : Tossup

Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 50/49
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 51/46
Harris vs Trump : Trump wins 50/48

Umm in a Biden vs Trump match in Maricopa, more than 1% of voters would vote 3rd party.

I don't think so. The number of people voting for a third party will likely drop considerably compared to 2016.

Maybe, but not to 1% in Maricopa.

In 2012 it was 1.75%

So Biden wins it 49.5/48.5
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2019, 06:15:05 PM »
It's a tossup and a pretty good bellwether for the state and maybe even the election as a whole.
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JGibson
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« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2019, 09:18:15 PM »
Tossup. It's a vital county that decides who'll win the state and possibly the election.
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S019
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2019, 09:19:28 PM »
Lean R, partly because I expect both Trump and McSally to win AZ, next year
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jamestroll
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2019, 09:41:37 PM »
Tilt democratic. Under 50% for the Democrat but the Democrat will carry the county.

I have a hot take that within the next few cycles both Pima and Maricopa will produce nearly identical 53 to 46% margins for the Democratic Party. Should keep Arizona competitive but leaning Democratic largely.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2019, 09:51:18 PM »
Tilt R.
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