2020 Ratings - RESULTS

[ElectionsGuy]

Previous Threads

AZ CO FL GA IA ME ME-02 MI MN NE-02 NV NH NM NC OH PA TX VA WI

Safe R: 125
Likely R: 56
Lean R: 38
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 41
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 46 <-- Tipping point
Lean D: 12
Likely D: 32
Safe D: 188

Republican: 260
Democratic: 278 ✔

Tipping Point State: Wisconsin

It's interesting that by far the most tossiest of the toss-up states were Arizona and Wisconsin and those were the two threads I did first.

% Competitive Range (Lean R - Lean D)

AZ: 99.4%
NE-02: 98.1%
PA: 97.0%
WI: 96.9%
MI: 96.0%
FL: 92.8%
NC: 90.1%
NH: 85.9%
GA: 70.8%
ME-02: 66.3%
ME: 65.3%
NV: 55.4%
IA: 54.1%
MN: 48.3%
TX: 41.3%
OH: 38.1%
CO: 15.2%
VA: 12.0%
NM: 1.6%

Realistic Republican Ceiling (All toss-ups and Lean D states)

Republican: 318
Democratic: 220

Realistic Democratic Ceiling (All toss-ups and Lean R's)

Democratic: 356
Republican: 182

[ElectionsGuy]

In this series, the median vote is what got recorded, but I want to take a second to appreciate the range of responses. So here are the 5% edges of the distribution.

5% Most Republican

Safe R: 181
Likely R: 67
Lean R: 22 <-- Tipping point (270 exactly)
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 52
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 6
Lean D: 22
Likely D: 5
Safe D: 183

5% Most Democratic

Safe R: 125
Likely R: 0
Lean R: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt R:  93
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 42
Lean D: 46 <-- Tipping Point
Likely D: 4
Safe D: 228