Haley vs. DeSantis vs. Pence
Haley runs as an establishment coastal republican and appeals heavily to suburban areas and business conservatives. DeSantis runs as a heavily rhetorical moderate, applying populist themes to win the support of republican leaning farmers and workers, as well as urban conservatives. Pence runs as a Trump estab backed social conservative, highlighting social and fiscal policy and appealing to christian and rural conservatives.
I'd give DeSantis Wisconsin otherwise spot on. Also I might give Haley Minnesota if you're giving her Detroit, but by then who knows if there will be any Republicans left in the MSP suburbs.