If the 2024 GOP Nominee isn't Pence (or any Trump) then who?

[Blue3]

If the 2024 GOP Nominee isn't Pence (or any Trump) then who?

[Grassroots]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

[Blue3]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

There can only be 1 nominee...

[Grassroots]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

There can only be 1 nominee...

Those are potential nominees.

[Medal506]

If it’s not Pence then it will most likely be Cruz or Haley

[Senator Incitatus]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

Baker is the only one of these I'd count out right now. Green is dependent on him winning in 2020.

[Grassroots]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

Baker is the only one of these I'd count out right now. Green is dependent on him winning in 2020.

Why would you count out Baker?

[Senator Incitatus]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

Baker is the only one of these I'd count out right now. Green is dependent on him winning in 2020.

Why would you count out Baker?

Because he has no interest in running and no chance of winning the primary if he changes his mind.

[RINO Tom]

I hold the apparently unpopular opinion that post-Trump primaries will have dynamics more similar to 2008 or 2012 than 2016, so I would say Haley, DeSantis and Cotton would be the major players with DeSantis or Haley scraping out a plurality.  Cotton will represent the far right, and the nomination will go to either whoever handles the spotlight better and can craft a larger coalition out of Haley or DeSantis.  I think we should all remember that blue state Republicans hold a disproportionate amount of power in nominating candidates, and they historically have been a tad more moderate.  Perhaps counter-intuitively, they were actually the ones that probably gave Trump the nomination.

[Alben Barkley]

Cruz could barely hold on to his own Senate seat. By 2024 he might be in serious danger of losing it, so I can see him declining to run for it again and running for POTUS instead that year, but I doubt he wins the nomination. His time has passed, like Christie in 2016.

[Grassroots]

Personally, I think it will be a four way between a Trumpist (DeSantis or Blackburn) a Establishment figure (Haley, Rubio, or Scott), a Social Conservative (Green, Cotton), and a moderate (Baker, Kasich)

[Tekken_Guy]

Haley, DeSantis, or Rick Scott. I can’t see any of the 2016 rejects get the nomination.

[Boobs]

Why do people think there is any widespread political appetite for Nikki Haley in the modern Republican Party? Sure, she would've been a fantastic pic for the Bush-era Republican Party, but a minority woman on the moderate wing of the party has no chance in winning a national primary. I doubt she would even win South Carolina in a presidential primary.

DeSantis seems like a good bet, although it'll depends on his reelection in 2022 (local popularity in Florida won't matter, however) and, with the FLDemocrats as his opponent, I'd wager he pulls it off.

Rick Scott makes sense as a candidate but I feel like he doesn't really have an ideological base – he's not Trumpy enough for the Trumpists, not moderate enough for the dying moderate wing, not evangelical – so who exactly is he appealing to?

Ted Cruz will most certainly run again but he's outclassed in appeal to groups other than evangelicals, and them alone is not enough to win a primary. He's the strongest of the evangelical line candidates.

Marsha Blackburn is interesting, but she screams "running mate" rather than first fiddle. She could be DeSantis's Pence.

Tom Cotton will definitely run but I'm not sure how much influence the natsec wing still has. But I could see him effectively rebrand himself as a hardcore Trumpist.

Some establishment favorites could be Tim Scott, Rob Portman, maybe Greg Abbott, but if any of them run they'd become the de facto "moderates" in the race and probably not get anywhere.

Wildcards? The other freshmen senators from 2018 – Cramer, Hawley, Braun – who'd likely flounder as they do not necessarily have a political niche from which they can build their initial support.

LOL at Baker. Next.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Cruz could barely hold on to his own Senate seat. By 2024 he might be in serious danger of losing it, so I can see him declining to run for it again and running for POTUS instead that year, but I doubt he wins the nomination. His time has passed, like Christie in 2016.

It's no coincidence that he started pushing for term limits right after his close call in 2018. He knows he can't win in 2024, so he's preparing an escape route. I think he runs for POTUS in 2024 to audition for a cabinet position.

[One Term Floridian]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

Baker is the only one of these I'd count out right now. Green is dependent on him winning in 2020.

Why would you count out Baker?

Because he has no interest in running and no chance of winning the primary if he changes his mind.

Lol Charlie Baker probably has a better chance of succeeding in the Democratic primary

[S019]

Nikki Haley

[Colin]

DeSantis, Haley, Green, Baker, Rubio, Scott, Hawley, Blackburn, Cotton, and a whole buttload of others, not even mentioning people elected in 2020 or 2022.

Baker has no chance in 2024, period, which is a shame because I really like him. He is way too moderate for the current national GOP. To have any shot he would need to take way to the right from his current position and still would be vulnerable, like Romney, to the "fake conservative" attack.

Rubio and Haley are old news whose time has passed at this point. I don't really see them having any traction in a 2024 primary. Same pretty much goes for Scott, who has a bad personality, easily exploitable political/corruption scandals, a lack of defined base, and, let's be honest, looks kinda weird.

DeSantis and Cotton seem like they would be potential front-runners or at least high-level contenders. DeSantis would seem to be a logical successor for the Trump wing of the party and has enough small government bona fides to probably garner some support from that section. Cotton seems a natural shoe-in for the national security and social conservative wings of the party. Otherwise, who knows who can jump out of the woodwork in 5 years.

[TrumpBritt24]

Ron DeSantis or Dan Crenshaw.

[Cassandra]

Crenshaw seems like someone the Trump base would love to rally around.

[Grassroots]

Crenshaw seems like someone the Trump base would love to rally around.

I would love Crenshaw as president. Surprised I never thought of him as a potential contender in 2024/2028.

[daveosupremo]

Crenshaw seems like someone the Trump base would love to rally around.

I would love Crenshaw as president. Surprised I never thought of him as a potential contender in 2024/2028.

If Trump wins reelection in 2020, I'd guess Trump will put Cruz on the 5th Circuit to replace Edith Jones or Priscilla Owen, and Abbott will replace Cruz with Crenshaw. He can sit in that seat for a couple of terms and run in 2028 or 2032.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Dan Bishop.

Why do people think there is any widespread political appetite for Nikki Haley in the modern Republican Party? Sure, she would've been a fantastic pic for the Bush-era Republican Party, but a minority woman on the moderate wing of the party has no chance in winning a national primary. I doubt she would even win South Carolina in a presidential primary.

It's not even the fact that she's a non-white woman that does her in, honestly--do you really expect the base to forgive her for the Confederate flag thing after Charleston?

EDIT: I'll also add that even if Bishop loses in September, he's still more likely to be the GOP nominee than Charlie f[inks]ing Baker.