Rate GA-Sen (Spring 2019)

[TarHeelDem]

Lean R. Tilt R if Abrams jumps in.

This. But the GOP will probably just rig it like they did GA-GOV in 2018. Sad!

[lfromnj]

Voted Likely D meant Likely R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue wins it 53/46
Trump wins it 52/47

None of this is going to happen.

[Joseph Cao]

Lean/Likely R, closer to Likely. As things stand (generic congressional ballot etc.), neither Abrams nor Tomlinson is going to win an outright majority in Georgia, the state that famously doubles as Charlie Brown’s football for Democrats in presidential election years.

[ON Progressive]

Lean/Likely R, closer to Likely. As things stand (generic congressional ballot etc.), neither Abrams nor Tomlinson is going to win an outright majority in Georgia, the state that famously doubles as Charlie Brown’s football for Democrats in presidential election years.

Why do people say this? Democrats haven’t even seriously contested the state in a Presidential election in decades, with the possible exception of 2008 (though I’m not entirely sure how serious that was even then).

[libertpaulian]

Lean/Likely R, closer to Likely. As things stand (generic congressional ballot etc.), neither Abrams nor Tomlinson is going to win an outright majority in Georgia, the state that famously doubles as Charlie Brown’s football for Democrats in presidential election years.

Why do people say this? Democrats haven’t even seriously contested the state in a Presidential election in decades, with the possible exception of 2008 (though I’m not entirely sure how serious that was even then).

Obama and McCain each visited Atlanta once.  Obama spent about $4-5 million.  That's about it.

Obama didn't focus on Georgia at all in 2012 but tried to win North Carolina.

[Frenchrepublican]

Perdue wins it 53/46
Trump wins it 52/47

None of this is going to happen.

Thank you for your counter-argument.

GA is more or less eight points to the right of the rest of the country, so unless Trump loses by a large margin, these numbers are more than plausible. Now of course if you are insane enough to believe that Trump will lose in a landslide it will be quite different and you will be right.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue wins it 53/46
Trump wins it 52/47

None of this is going to happen.

Thank you for your counter-argument.

GA is more or less eight points to the right of the rest of the country, so unless Trump loses by a large margin, these numbers are more than plausible. Now of course if you are insane enough to believe that Trump will lose in a landslide it will be quite different and you will be right.

GA is a racially polarized Southern state. It is more or less immune to national swings. This has been established over and over again. More blacks, Latinos, Asians, liberal whites moving here = the state getting more D. Trump is not going to do better than he did in 2016 with a legit tossup Senate race on the ballot and LOL at Perdue getting the same 53 percent he got in an Obama six year itch midterm in a presidential. Quote this in November 2020 please.

[TWTown]

Lean R. Tilt R if Abrams jumps in.

[HarrisonL]

Lean R, even with Abrams, as I expect Trump to win this state again in 2020, although the state is trending Democratic on all levels. Again, if Abrama couldn't beat Brian Kemp in a Blue Wave in a Gubernatorial Election, she won't beat Perdue in a Senate race with a Republican President on the Ballot in a neutral year.

[Frenchrepublican]

Perdue wins it 53/46
Trump wins it 52/47

None of this is going to happen.

Thank you for your counter-argument.

GA is more or less eight points to the right of the rest of the country, so unless Trump loses by a large margin, these numbers are more than plausible. Now of course if you are insane enough to believe that Trump will lose in a landslide it will be quite different and you will be right.

GA is a racially polarized Southern state. It is more or less immune to national swings. This has been established over and over again. More blacks, Latinos, Asians, liberal whites moving here = the state getting more D. Trump is not going to do better than he did in 2016 with a legit tossup Senate race on the ballot and LOL at Perdue getting the same 53 percent he got in an Obama six year itch midterm in a presidential. Quote this in November 2020 please.

1. As of now you don't have enough minorities voters in GA to make the state truely competitive. Your argument could work if we were in 2025 but as of now any democratic candidate who wants to win here must have some appeal with rural WWC
2. Trump won GA 50/45 in 2016 and I don't think the D nominee will win the PV in a landslide (contrary to many posters on this forum), thus a 52/47 Trump win in GA seems reasonable.
3. Perdue (contrary to 2014) has now the incumbency advantage, besides I don't think he will face a strong challenger as the democratic bench is very weak.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue wins it 53/46
Trump wins it 52/47

None of this is going to happen.

Thank you for your counter-argument.

GA is more or less eight points to the right of the rest of the country, so unless Trump loses by a large margin, these numbers are more than plausible. Now of course if you are insane enough to believe that Trump will lose in a landslide it will be quite different and you will be right.

GA is a racially polarized Southern state. It is more or less immune to national swings. This has been established over and over again. More blacks, Latinos, Asians, liberal whites moving here = the state getting more D. Trump is not going to do better than he did in 2016 with a legit tossup Senate race on the ballot and LOL at Perdue getting the same 53 percent he got in an Obama six year itch midterm in a presidential. Quote this in November 2020 please.

1. As of now you don't have enough minorities voters in GA to make the state truely competitive. Your argument could work if we were in 2025 but as of now any democratic candidate who wants to win here must have some appeal with rural WWC
2. Trump won GA 50/45 in 2016 and I don't think the D nominee will win the PV in a landslide (contrary to many posters on this forum), thus a 52/47 Trump win in GA seems reasonable.
3. Perdue (contrary to 2014) has now the incumbency advantage, besides I don't think he will face a strong challenger as the democratic bench is very weak.

1. Yes we do. That's why Brian Kemp and Republican operatives were rejecting the absentee ballots of Asian voters, forgetting the power cords in the blackest precincts in Gwinnett County, and ran out of provisional ballots in Fulton County precincts where Abrams was getting 95% of the vote. Just LOL at Abrams having to appeal to rural WWC. She did better than every Democrat of the past 20 years. Her strategy was working just fine until Kemp suppressed votes.

2. It doesn't matter how the national PV goes. Romney got 53 percent when Obama was winning by 4, Nathan Deal/David Perdue got 53 percent when R's were winning by 6 in an Obama midterm. We are immune to national trends. Abrams got to 49 due to white independents crossing over and her operation turning out new voters of color. Even with all that the 2018 electorate was STILL more Republican than 2016.

3. I don't buy the incumbency advantage. Nathan Deal got the same 53 percent in 2010 and 2014 and he was immensely popular with Democrats. Perdue has no popularity with non-white/Democratic communities. We are a fast growing state with people from the North and the West moving here daily and bringing their D voting habits with them.

[Frenchrepublican]

Perdue wins it 53/46
Trump wins it 52/47

None of this is going to happen.

Thank you for your counter-argument.

GA is more or less eight points to the right of the rest of the country, so unless Trump loses by a large margin, these numbers are more than plausible. Now of course if you are insane enough to believe that Trump will lose in a landslide it will be quite different and you will be right.

GA is a racially polarized Southern state. It is more or less immune to national swings. This has been established over and over again. More blacks, Latinos, Asians, liberal whites moving here = the state getting more D. Trump is not going to do better than he did in 2016 with a legit tossup Senate race on the ballot and LOL at Perdue getting the same 53 percent he got in an Obama six year itch midterm in a presidential. Quote this in November 2020 please.

1. As of now you don't have enough minorities voters in GA to make the state truely competitive. Your argument could work if we were in 2025 but as of now any democratic candidate who wants to win here must have some appeal with rural WWC
2. Trump won GA 50/45 in 2016 and I don't think the D nominee will win the PV in a landslide (contrary to many posters on this forum), thus a 52/47 Trump win in GA seems reasonable.
3. Perdue (contrary to 2014) has now the incumbency advantage, besides I don't think he will face a strong challenger as the democratic bench is very weak.

1. Yes we do. That's why Brian Kemp and Republican operatives were rejecting the absentee ballots of Asian voters, forgetting the power cords in the blackest precincts in Gwinnett County, and ran out of provisional ballots in Fulton County precincts where Abrams was getting 95% of the vote. Just LOL at Abrams having to appeal to rural WWC. She did better than every Democrat of the past 20 years. Her strategy was working just fine until Kemp suppressed votes.

2. It doesn't matter how the national PV goes. Romney got 53 percent when Obama was winning by 4, Nathan Deal/David Perdue got 53 percent when R's were winning by 6 in an Obama midterm. We are immune to national trends. Abrams got to 49 due to white independents crossing over and her operation turning out new voters of color. Even with all that the 2018 electorate was STILL more Republican than 2016.

3. I don't buy the incumbency advantage. Nathan Deal got the same 53 percent in 2010 and 2014 and he was immensely popular with Democrats. Perdue has no popularity with non-white/Democratic communities. We are a fast growing state with people from the North and the West moving here daily and bringing their D voting habits with them.

1. Kemp didn’t suppress votes. You should stop with this nonsense. Abrams lost and by refusing to conceding she is damaging your democratic institutions (she is acting exactly like Roy Moore)

2. I’m not pretending that GA will go back to the 2004 era when Bush won the state by 14, but GA remains a republican leaning state and as you pointed out it’s a very inelastic state, thus Trump and Perdue are the clear favourites in 2020. Democrats have a high floor in GA but as of now their ceiling is still under 50

3. Perdue is quite popular according to the recent AJC poll, even a healthy minority of democrats like him, of course most of them will vote D in the end, but the idea that Perdue is unpopular is not true at all.

[Suburbia]

Lean R.