ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins' path in the Trump era has always been solidifying the Republican base + benefiting from the state's rapid Republican trend + winning over the ~6-8% of Biden voters who are at least considering her due to her long history in the state, remaining goodwill, etc. + making sure Gideon is seen as an even less appealing alternative. Is it easy? No. Is it impossible? I don’t think so (even if it’s a narrow path), and it’s certainly much easier in a state like ME than in any other "blue" state.

Running as an ardent anti-Trumper would be suicidal for obvious reasons.

If she's seen as less anti-Trump than the Democrat and another pro-Trump candidate is on the ballot driving the president's supporters to the polls, Collins can win via RCV.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot of the Trumpers are gonna vote for her anyways, because he told them to. Are they going to vote Gideon?

No but they could always just leave senate blank or write in someone else.

RCV means they can vote both for their favourite pro-Trump independent and support the Republican nominee.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Susan Collins released an internal poll from April showing her up 1 point as a supposedly positive indicator. We know it's not her only internal as she mentioned her favourability moving up 8 points from January, so there's a decent chance there have been several other surveys showing less rosy results (and her internal pollster was likely to skew the result in her favour anyway, as it was the Tarrance Group). The presidential race has leant more Democratic since then, some of that is likely to bleed downballot and while I do expect things to get slightly better for the GOP than they are now, we've no reason to believe that a reversion to the mean is especially likely.

If the Republicans are quietly admitting they're behind in this race, I think the odds are not in her favour.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

At this point I want her to lose more than Trump. At least he’s open about being sh!tty.

She gets memed her for becoming a lot less moderate, but still stopped skinny repeal. Attempting to compromise on new bills with Collins but without McConnell's approval is not a complete waste of time; outside of foreign policy, however, that holds for just about every other Republican Senator bar Murkowski and Romney (and Rand Paul + Mike Lee on civil libertarian issues). 

Really not a fan but better her than, say, Thom Tillis.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

He isn't yet term-limited but Gideon is. Presumably this is part of why they're launching their candidacies in this order. The other explanation is the DSCC made some moronic triangulation-based analysis of their #candidatequality and let it be known they'd prefer Gideon because she was more "moderate".

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

IMO it's smarter to attack on healthcare than Roger Stone/impeachment.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

IMO it's smarter to attack on healthcare than Roger Stone/impeachment.

It isn’t smarter if it doesn’t work. I guess that’s why she’s leading someone with a -20 approval rating by just 4 points despite outspending that person 2-to-1 since March.

Collins is disapproved of by a lot of Republicans who will still come home for her on an RCV ballot (some of those might have been peeled off by a certain kind of populist campaign, but Roger Stone is hardly the angle to push there). Gideon not campaigning effectively on healthcare (I'm not sure the PPP attack was wise, FWIW) does not mean pushing on economic issues wasn't her best strategy (this can still be tied into Republican overreach that Collins failed to stop). In any case, hasn't she advertised a fair bit on the basis of the Supreme Court justices/abortions? I'm not sure that is wise, either: it seems like less of a winning issue for Democrats even in a pro-choice state like Maine and most voters should be aware of Collins' Kavanaugh vote now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The SoS took a long time here, but it's now clear no independents except Lisa Savage (a Green member) and Max Linn (an anti-establishment rightwinger) will be on the ballot. No third party candidates will be there, either.

VanHelsing is amongst those who did not ultimately qualify.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1303359881135546369
This probably helps Collins, right?

RCV was always going to be used for the Congressional races; the veto referendum was only for the presidential contest.

In theory, Collins should have more upside than Gideon from RCV because she is a more alienating figure within her own party base than Gideon is among Democrats, but it could go either way at this point and I think the local Republican campaigns against RCV means it will be marginally in Gideon's favour.

Lisa Savage (an independent registered with the Green party) has registered in at least one poll and the nationalist independent Max Linn has not - then again, would this even have happened if respondents weren't aware that they could have Savage as their first choice and opt for Gideon afterwards? It's hard to tell.

Allies of Collins unsuccessfully tried to get Max Linn off the ballot (he later suspended and then relaunched his campaign). I presume they did that because they feared Trump supporters who'd been told not to trust RCV would hesitate to use it even to help Republicans. In the Republican primary for ME-02 this year, 27% of Brakey voters did not give a second preference to Bennett or Crafts when their first choice was eliminated, but choosing between those two was always going to be a harder decision for Republicans than (D) vs (R).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Maine SoS has updated their site with the final list (post-deadline) of candidates and write-in candidates. On the ballot:

Collins (R)
Gideon (D)
Linn (I)
Savage (I)

As write-ins:

Tiffany Bond ("Moderate MaineRaising Independent")
Ian Kenton Engelman ("Facts Matter")
Douglas E. Fogg (I)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

She won't be the deciding vote if she's a "no", but she will regain credibility if she chooses to offer up a performative "no" with McConnell's agreement and a majority of other Senators voting "yes".

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

Or they'd leave it blank

It's possible, but the thing about preferential voting is that once a "protest vote" has been cast, it's generally easier to think a little more strategically, especially if the justice was confirmed anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The debate's feed was cut the last time he did this. He has also apparently protested Gideon's height, so tune in for a wild ride!

https://twitter.com/srq203/status/1310719207521296384

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Collins wants even a shot at winning at this point then she needs to directly condemn Trump. At the presidential level Maine (at large) is practically a Safe D state at this point and she has no hope if she can't bring herself to realize that and behave accordingly.

And lose Trump's base in the process?

Well, I guess at this point there's not really any saving her, but had she been truly moderate from the beginning of Trump's administration, then yes, it would be worth that risk in order to maintain the coalition that has made her so successful. Better yet, she would have voted in ways that clearly delineated herself from her party so that she wouldn't have to make last-minute criticisms of the President in order to remind people that she's supposedly a moderate. Also, frankly, who else would the Trump supporters vote for? I guess part of it is just inherent to the struggle of being a senator from a state solidly aligned with the opposing party, but Collins clearly doesn't understand why she's been reelected so many times.

Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, and now candidates Bullock and Bollier know how to behave in ways that maintain enough crossover appeal to be competitive without alienating voters of their own party. Collins clearly doesn't know how to do that. For someone who has been around as long as she has (in fact, I think she's been a senator for about 90% of my life), it's shocking to suddenly learn just how unsavvy she is as a politician.

It is easier to maintain crossover support without alienating the base when one's own party is in the opposition. Compromise/"moderation" etc. seems more rational from that perspective to a lot of voters and the agenda one runs on/against is defined more by the other party than figureheads within the same team.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Really dislike all this Moderate Hero action for Collins. Democrats can't take this seat for granted. If NC and ME go south they're left with IA and... who knows.

Jared Golden endorse Gideon challenge

(Seriously, some arm-twisting should be considered if private surveys aren't showing a comfortable Gideon lead.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

Then it doesn't exist. Most media probably won't abandon the horse-race narrative and even if the conventional wisdom becomes that Biden is likely to win, the kinds of voters preparing to place a check on his presidency would think twice (they were probably the ones doing the same thing in 2016) because of enduring superstitions about Trump being inevitable. If an elections forum like this is full of doomers w.r.t. Biden's chances, what do you think the even less informed general public is like?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

Then it doesn't exist. Most media probably won't abandon the horse-race narrative and even if the conventional wisdom becomes that Biden is likely to win, the kinds of voters preparing to place a check on his presidency would think twice (they were probably the ones doing the same thing in 2016) because of enduring superstitions about Trump being inevitable. If an elections forum like this is full of doomers w.r.t. Biden's chances, what do you think the even less informed general public is like?

It happened in 2016. Just because some media outlets report(ed) on potential pitfalls for the leading candidate didn't mean they weren't also saying, "Hillary/Biden could win Georgia/Texas/South Carolina!" Voters are actually be more sensitive to the latter, in my opinion, as the "horse race" narrative is baked in; deviations from that narrative are what actually catch the ear.

Also, to be clear, I still find Gideon the favorite. I'm just analyzing Collins's potential strength. I'm noticing a consistently nasty habit on here (not singling you out and not sure if it's happened in years past) of conflating any discussion of losing Republican candidates' chances with a belief that candidate can/will win or "doomerism" or "concern trolling." Maybe that's why everyone here is in hair-on-fire mode every time there's a Republican upset. Just needed to put that disclaimer in.

I think Collins has a decent chance and by "doomerism" I was referring not to MESEN takes but the tendency to have a 5+ page thread when a non-Trafalgar poll shows a close race in any one of AZ/FL/MI/MN/NC/PA/WI.

I also think this is not where her chance emerges from. The voters likely to split their tickets in this way are more likely than not to be the same kind of ticket-splitters from 2016 and are probably feeling once bitten, twice shy. Collins' path relies more on Democratic voters prepared to split their tickets even in the event of a Trump win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Once again, the vast majority of voters think that Trump will win. I seriously doubt that this will affect that many voters, especially in Maine.

It will depend on whether Trump wins ME-02 and on Lisa Savage's performance. In effect she still has time to take progressive votes from Gideon. Savage supports Medicare for All, Gideon doesn't. If Savage can do so well, she can hand victory to Collins.

She can't because of RCV.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Both candidates have raised so much money that they are finding it impossible to spend and the people of Maine are getting pissed at how much they are being spammed by ads.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/17/politics/maines-us-senate-race-has-attracted-so-much-money-that-its-hard-to-spend-it/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Maine/comments/jai2mi/can_we_all_agree_political_ads_are_out_of_control/

Collins only raised like $8M

That's still more than is useful in Maine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Regardless of RCV's effect on final margins, it gave us Max Linn cutting up masks on the debate stage and praising Hillary Clinton (w.r.t. Susan Collins) while also being pro-Trump. The last debate had neither him nor Lisa Savage and considering how boring it was compared to the rest, we should all be grateful for the new voting system.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1321652221239611393
Maine, please vote Susan Collins out!

I second this. As a black person, I'm fully aware of how many whites have downplayed, and continue to downplay, institutional racism within this country. It doesn't surprise me that Susan Collins, an elderly white woman who lives in a state that is well over 90% white, would be so ignorant on such issues. Fortunately, it looks like Maine is going to give her a pink slip in less than a week, after a quarter of a century.

What kind of systemic racism is there in Maine?

what a disgusting comment. you should be ashamed of yourself.

People of Susan Collins generation hear "systemic racism" and think of Jim Crow.  I'm familiar enough with current theory and lingo around it to know it doesn't normally mean that, but it's used in so many different ways that I never know what way people are using the term unless they talk about specific examples.  In any case it's a crummy thing to use a concept like that to shame people.  If you want to really know if someone cares about an issue you care about, don't use a lot of social signifier jargon.

Collins is a sitting Senator, not a politically disengaged pensioner. She should probably be (and, I suspect, is) somewhat clued up on what "systemic racism" means, especially post-Floyd protests in her own state. It's really not that obscure and is certainly less so than the "critical race theory"-based screeds seen in other Republican campaigns despite said screeds being even stronger social signifiers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is the fact that Collins would become head of the appropriations committee getting any play in this race? It seems like that could garner her support in a state with "parochial conerns."


Given the lack of polls in this state and the localism that prevails in Maine elections, I would love to know what people in the state think.

So much of the online discussion is drowned out by people who immediately mock Collins for being "concerned" and about Senate whip counts, but these people often have nothing to do with Maine.

Localism will certainly help Collins but I doubt there are many genuinely persuadable voters who are also politically informed enough to consider Senate committee chairs in determining their vote. It would be one thing if she was already chair and using it to directly benefit Maine (McConnell's pork barrelling is a good example here), but otherwise, I really doubt it has much sway. The same applies to Alaska where Al Gross and Dan Sullivan invoked Roger Wicker and Maria Cantwell respectively - neither line of attack seemed to make much of an obvious mark in the public domain and I doubt most voters even know who these people are.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In her concession speech, Sarah Gideon said they built a movement.

More like a movement towards nominating a better candidate like Troy Jackson next time