ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet (user search)
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  ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet  (Read 75295 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: April 10, 2020, 08:42:42 PM »

Collins is now predicted to lose based on the aggregate of user predictions.

I still don't think Collins will lose her seat, and people are just putting it as D becuase they want to see it go D since originally it looked to be likely if not Safe R. Like really, a 4 term moderate R incumbent who won her last eelection by 40 points in a barely blue tinged state, with a lot of independent and swing voters is just gonna lose because of 1 vote?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2020, 09:11:51 AM »

Collins is now predicted to lose based on the aggregate of user predictions.

I pay more attention to predictors like Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, Daily Kos, and Politico.

Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato currently predict the Maine race as a toss-up. Daily Kos and Politico predict it as lean R. I think their predictions make more sense than the biased opinions of the Atlas users.
If you are following them closely then you know these predictions keep leaning more and more democratic.

Her approval ratings, polling numbers keep dropping out and the heat on her gets bigger and bigger. We still have half a year before the election and she already dropped massively.

I consider her gone.

Then how come you have Collins inning in your senate prediction. Also, the fcat that we are still months away from th election eans that people will have time to forget about the Kavanaugh vote, and this coronavirus will keep her from getting more negative press for a bit.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2020, 01:37:38 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2020, 04:28:00 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

I think it's fair to say that at this point, a majoity of people on this forum think Collins will lose her senate race in 2020. However, a lot of this seems to be based of of 2 early polls that showed her narrowly losing, and several controversial vote that have sunk her approval rating. While this election will certainly be closer than it was in 2014, I don't see her loosing for a variety of reasons:

1. She won her previous election with 70% of the vote
2. Some of her disaproval comes from Rs who don't think she's "extreme" enough
3. ME has a large independent swing vote group that allowed Angus King to win by a landsldie in 2018, despite there being another D on the ballot that would split the liberal vote.
4. It's hard to pinpoint the true partisan lean of ME, but it's not all that blue of a state
5. Gideon isn't a great challenger in my opinion because her fundraising hasn't been great, and she doesn't come off as being moderate, and comes off as running as a stunt to unseat Collins, whereas someone like Manchin or Tester in 2018 didn't play national politics, but instead ran on the issues important to their state, and ended up winning, while someone like McCatskill trying ot play national politics lost.
6. Susan Collins can still save herself. She can take another controversial vote in favor of Ds to balance herself more. She can also distance herself from Trump. RCV allows her to run to the center and face little consequence, since tright wingers will still put her above Gideon
7. Susan Collins doesn't have to outperform Trump by much. ME isn't going to Biden by 15 points, sorry.
8. She still has some moderate votes to run on. This is stuff like healthcare, and many older voters may vote Collins-Biden based on healthcare alone.

Idk if it's juts me, but I feel like people are saying Gideon will win just because they want it to be true, when it still seems based upon all available data and what we know about ME, Collins is a clear favorite. Am I missing something?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2020, 02:39:55 PM »

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore



I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2020, 05:11:26 PM »

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore



I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

I do agree that she's damned if she does, damned if she doesn't to a certain extent but there has to have been some sort of middle ground she could have taken, at least rhetorically. Her Kavanaugh "I believe someone assaulted her but it wasn't my friend Boofy McBoofface because he told me" was a huge misstep, as was her Trump has learned his lesson bs.  I don't begrudge her position but I have no sympathy for her.

She sounds stupid but most people don't follow this stuff as closely. She's still favored to win re-eection in my view, but I wouldn't be shocked if she lost
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 08:30:51 PM »

I've said and will continue to have Collins as a slight favorite, even if Biden is polling in landslide numbers. She's had a long time to build up her reputation, and even though she's damaged it, it's still there. Also, she can run to the center after she wins the R primary because of RCV, since the far right who may not put her first will still have her above Gideon most likely. RCV really does favor moderate canidates, and Susan Collins at least is percieved to be more moderate than Gideon.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2020, 08:50:29 PM »

It's time to rethink the EC map, James, Harrison, Collins, Warnock, Jones and Bollier can all be in the Senate together as long as Dems have 51 votes before the GA runoff to guaretee, McConnell is the minority leader and it doesnt go to a power sharing agreement that was authorized by Bill Frist and Tom Daschle in 2000 when Rs had 51/50 votes

I think the Ds best path in this age of little split ticket voting is -AL, +CO, AZ, NC and one of ME, MT, AK, IA, GA(Regular). Unfortunately, things are way too polarized for Da to win in deep red inelastic states like SC that have very few split ticket voters, unless Biden wins in a landslide landslide. NC will probably flip if Biden is doing about +5 in NPV or maybe a bit better. ME and MT cancel out because they will be a test of whether partisanship or canidate quality wins out, so if Ds lose ME for example, I think they have a better chance of winning MT. Gross can run an independent campaign in AK and overtake Sullivan. People forget that Rs rarely win above 50% of the raw vote in AK, and many many people vote 3rd party. Running a D-I-L ensures basically all the Democratic vote, and will likely cause some Independents and Libertarians to break his way, which may be enough to put him over the top, but he needs to distance himself from the national D party in order to do so. IA and GA (Regular) can flip if Biden is doing well enough nationally to win those states, or at the very least, make the presidential margin close. In my view, the only way Ds win GA (s) maybe is if Trump wins again and Ds make a huge deal out of the race and get really high turnout, which is really hard in off elections in the south. If Biden wins, Ds have virtually no chnace since all the energy that caused him to will have evaporated and "racists" whites will come out in droves to ensure Collins (or maybe Loeffeller) wins. There's also a good chance that Collins and Loefeller are the only 2 to make the runoff, making it and R v R and the Ds would have no chance since there isn't a D on the ballot. This would likely occur if Trump is doing well in GA (and nationally), which makes the chance of them flipping it in a runoff after a Trump win even less likely. GA(s) is likely R in terms of probability.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2020, 04:20:26 PM »

I've been saying all along that this race will be a significantly tougher lift than places like NC and even GA, I'm glad to see that most of this forum is also coming to that realization. Unlike most of the vulnerable incumbents (McSally, Gardner, Purdue, Daines, Ernst), Collins has more than two years of national political exposure outside of the Trump era, and she's built a brand over 20 years. It's going to be hard for Democrats to break that brand, though this will be her closest election ever. The real question for Collins is how many Biden/Collins voters are there out there, and I'm sure that there is a good chunk of them for now, I think they're enough to get her over the hump, my guess today is Collins+1-2 and Biden+5-7. Also I do think Democrats are in trouble long-term in Maine, and as a result, the state will be much closer than people expect, I surely don't expect it to swing as much as TX or IA probably will, and I surely don't think Biden is winning Maine by double digits. Maine will probably be quite a bit to the right of the nation, which will signal, that the state will trend R, as Democrats continue to struggle in the rural Northern part of the state. Had this election been closer, say a Biden NPV lead of around 3 or 4, Trump could have very well had a good shot at Maine. But at this point, he can keep it close, but he can't win. Collins probably still can win, really the only question is how big does Biden's lead have to get for Collins to be required to win an unrealistically large amount of Biden/Collins voters, that answer is not yet clear, and probably won't be clear until Election Day. Given the lack of quality public polling as well as Maine's affinity for ticket splitting, this remains a very tough race to call, and both Democrats and Republicans should not get overconfident about this race.

Yep, this is pretty much what I think too. This race isn't more than a lean in either direction at this point, and even though Biden will probably win ME, Susan Collins has built her brand, and one or two votes won't damage it enough for her to lose.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2020, 04:25:33 PM »

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2020, 04:43:47 PM »

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.



Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2020, 04:51:51 PM »

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.



Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

With RCV, it makes it much more beneficial for canidates to run to the center, or at least be perceived as "bipartisan", since they won't lose as many votes from their own party base.  Also, much of her low approval is just Republicans who dislike her. Even though Ds and Independents like her less than before, she still does have some crossover appeal.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2020, 06:14:05 PM »

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.
Honestly question, why are you so pessimistic? Not being rude or anything, but a honest question. Biden could win the popular vote by 7-9 points. How would the GOP hold maine of all places in that Scenario. Not to mention that her approvals are plummeting. One biased internal doesn’t make Collins the favorite.

Tbh atlas put a little too much stock in polls, and not enough in fundamentals. If a poll showing Gideon up 8 came out, this race would be considered likely D and Collins would be declared DOA

Nah, you're not being rude for asking that; it's important to have civil discussions to understand other people's perspectives. The internal poll only reinstated what I had long suspected; a narrow Collins victory. It certainly is possible that she does lose. Some of her disapproval is from Republcians angry about her votes to save health care and such, but they will still put her before Gideon. This is a senate race in a small state; politics is much more local. Collins has her brand. She can run to the center because of RCV and gain votes from "moderates", while still having the far-right put her above Gideon. She had to be kinda hardcore for a bit in order to win her primary. She has certainly lost a good chunk of her moderate appeal after Kavanaugh and impeachment; but are these 2 votes really enough to lose all of her crossover appeal? No. Polling in ME has been pretty bad so far, so I don't really care about the polls all that much in this senate race. The polls that showed Gideon ahead had a huge number of undecided voters, many of which could break for Collins if she does one major vote to "appease moderates" and bring the undecides heavily to her. She's not stupid, she knows what she's doing. For a while, her best bet was to avoid the national spotlight as much as possible. Now, her job is to become a moderate hero.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2020, 01:07:29 PM »

Biden endorses Gideon



Oh no! My opponent has too many good priorities. Isn't it just so unfair and wrong that Gideon gets to run on a platform that the majority of Mainers support?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2020, 09:34:19 PM »

What’s your current prediction for this race? (Even if it’s just a "gut feeling", I’m genuinely curious.)

Gut feeling:   Collins- 54

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2020, 09:41:43 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2020, 09:45:25 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see herself struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Oh ok, that makes more sense. Thanks for the update on the race in ME. This race has been really difficult for me to pinpoint (I could see anything from like Collins +10 to Gideon +10) but overall I think it's a slight tilt to Gideon (I've always been skeptical about this race though), but you're from Maine so you know better than I. My model says Gideon is roughly a 2/3 favorite to win, but the ME senate race has a very very large range of realistic outcomes according to the model as well, because of all the conflicting factors. Also; who knows how much the national environment will impact this race.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2020, 06:28:39 AM »

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see her struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Mills won in 2018 by under 8% and she was from the second district. She also wasn't facing a 20+ year incumbent. There was also a third-party candidate so Mills only got about 51% in a great year for Dems as a solid candidate. Gideon isn't a better statewide candidate than Mills.

Thanks a lot. it sounds dumb and I really don’t have much to back this up (it’s mostly gut feeling, and I realize that I could be totally wrong), but I still feel like Collins is being underestimated here and that ME isn’t part of the Democrats' path of least resistance to 50 seats in the Senate. Either way, I feel like this race is going to surprise a lot of people regardless of what happens.

I feel like she has more pathways to victory, especially since RCV encourages running to the center, but if she continue down her current trajectory, she won't win unless the GOP is doing decent nationally. I would personally advise her to distance herself from Trump because she may be able to get more crossover appeal, and the Trump supporters who aren't huge fans of her will still put her before Gideon.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2020, 02:51:46 PM »

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.




Wasn't purely because his state changed. Some of it was increased levels of partisanship nationally. He literally won unopposed by an R in 2008, and won with liek 80% of the vote, and then lost by 10%, taht's not AR trending R as much as it is partisanship.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2020, 09:58:34 PM »

Even I think this race is tilt-Gideon, and as you all know I held out on moving this race to tossup for the longest time.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2020, 11:39:38 AM »



This probably helps Collins, right?

That's my guess too. RCV usually helps the incumbent and/or the canidate who is percieved to be more of the centrist.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2020, 11:06:45 AM »

I just have to imagine there will be more people who rank Gideon last than Collins last

Well I think just Collins being the incumbent with a big name will land her name above Gideon's on so many ballots.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2020, 01:42:29 PM »

This race still is a tossup.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2020, 10:52:17 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2020, 10:55:54 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

I watched the debate and I would have to argue Collins won narrowly, though neither Collins nor Gideon did particularly well. Collins dodged a lot of questions like when Gideon asked her about Trump, and seemed kinda flip-floppey but also flaunted some of her achievements as senator. She never really said much controversial though. Gideon mostly attacked Collins, but I think she attacked Collins a bit too much early on in the debate. She went down the rabbit hole of Collins not chosing a side with Trump a bit too much. Then again, I'm probably overanalyzing this.

Honestly, I would probably be more friendly towards Collins if it weren't for the fact a vote for her is a vote for McConnel being the senate majority leader.

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2020, 09:35:27 AM »


Don't know how much these endorsements help her because of partisanship, but this race was definately never going to be an easy flip.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2020, 12:05:01 PM »

Lol "I'm a Republican it I'm very Independent, which is why I'm supporting another Republican for senate". I like Hogan as a governor, but would prefer if he didn't get involved in national politics.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2020, 07:55:14 PM »

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though
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