ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

That would be a Christmas miracle, but if her polling was so bad that she opted not to run anyway then that means she probably would've lost regardless

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Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Poliquin was an uncontroversial incumbent in a seat which usually doesn’t boot out its incumbents. He may not have been the best "fit" for the district, but he wasn’t some incredibly weak incumbent either.

Either way, pretending like Golden’s re-election is gonna be easy even against Brakey is just dumb. Poliquin was a pretty bad incumbent whose only strength as a candidate was his fundraising and Golden was a pretty good one, and Golden only barely won.

Iowa “loved its incumbents” until last year it didn’t and sent two and almost three packing

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Revisionism at work, folks. Golden is an incumbent now and Brakey list this district by 10% in his Senate run.

How is that revisionism? Poliquin was widely regarded as a parody of an out of touch Wall Street Banker who never had real ties to the district, continuously shopped for office, and had a number of gaffes (running into a woman’s bathroom)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Poliquin was an uncontroversial incumbent in a seat which usually doesn’t boot out its incumbents. He may not have been the best "fit" for the district, but he wasn’t some incredibly weak incumbent either.

Either way, pretending like Golden’s re-election is gonna be easy even against Brakey is just dumb. Poliquin was a pretty bad incumbent whose only strength as a candidate was his fundraising and Golden was a pretty good one, and Golden only barely won.

Iowa “loved its incumbents” until last year it didn’t and sent two and almost three packing

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that Golden has a better chance of winning reelection than beating Collins, especially with how weak the current GOP field in ME-02 appears to be. He’s tailor-made for his district, and I don’t think his 2018 strategy would be easily replicable in a statewide race against someone like Collins.

Well Collins herself confirmed she is underwater now, so it’s not like she the same unbeatable goddess that she once was. Personally if it were me and I had a choice between:

(a) run against a slightly unpopular incumbent senator in a state Clinton won by 3% or

(b) run for re-election in a seat Trump won by 10% and is likely to easily carry again

I think most rational people would have gone with (a.)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I finally convinced my dad to give to Gideon instead of McGrath, yes!

With all due respect to your father, has he been the victim of a con job before?

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It’s trending R so fast it replaced an R governor, congressman, and several legislators (double digits in the House) with Democrats in 2018.

So VA wasn’t trending D fast in 2009, 2010, and 2011? Obviously a party can recover some lost ground in states trending away from them in massive wave years.

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue, and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

Maine sure looked like a red state across the board in 2014

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1207259116613373956?s=21

She’s never had a real job before so no surprise

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

We’re way past due on a quality poll coming out of here in an actual Collins vs. Gideon matchup. All we seem to know is that Collins is unpopular as it is, but not the extent of it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/g67l0f/the_washington_establishment_thinks_it_can_decide/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

This AMA went well /s

She really is a quack. Insane how she came in third for the gubernatorial primary

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Collins only raised $3M. Yikes

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1278857274144980993

Normally $3 million is very good, especially for a state the size of Maine. It just looks bad by comparison to Gideon.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

CASH ON HAND: Gideon $5.5 million, Collins $5 million
$ SPENT IN Q2: Gideon $7.2 million, Collins $3.6 million

Hot damn. There is really no good reason for there to not be a high-quality external in this race.

There has, it's just been since March/April. I'm sure we'll get more after the primary or Labor Day since this is one of the core Senate races.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

And this is why Troy Jackson should have run

Two candidates from Aroostook County? We wouldn't be able to handle all the populist

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker, endorse Collins.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) are endorsing Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine’s hotly contested Senate race, cutting ads in support of the longtime incumbent as she faces the most serious reelection fight of her political career.

The ads, shared first with The Hill, are part of a $450,000 ad blitz by the Republican Jewish Coalition and come a week after the group launched another spot in which former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, threw his support behind Collins’s reelection.

The endorsements from Hogan and Baker are particularly unique. Both are Republican governors of deep-blue states and rarely endorse in races outside their home.

Yes, the Republican governors no one in Maine has ever heard of are big #gamechangers