ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Ogre Mage]

2. Some of her disapproval comes from Rs who don't think she's "extreme" enough

I don't see that as sufficient justification for why she is going to win.  Surely you have seen Susan Collins's approval ratings lately.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

Gone are the 2000-2015 days when Susan Collins had approval ratings in the 60s. She won her races easily back then.  You cannot compare the Collins of yesteryear with Collins today.  She has fallen HARD.  A Republican with approval ratings in the high 30s in a state which has consistently voted for Democratic Presidential candidates is, at best, a tossup for reelection.  And that is what the polls show.  She's quite easily tied to Trump now because of the Kavanaugh and impeachment votes.  In the aftermath of the coronavirus debacle her impeachment vote looks even worse.

Gideon's fundraising looks like it is going fine--

AUGUSTA, Maine — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sara Gideon raised $7.1 million during the first quarter of 2020, surpassing Republican Sen. Susan Collins after the incumbent had already set a record for the most fundraising during a Maine campaign.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/15/politics/sara-gideon-leapfrogs-susan-collins-in-fundraising-ahead-of-2020-us-senate-race/

[Ogre Mage]

While her choice may not have been the optimal one for winning re-election, it is by far the best choice for her plans after the election if she loses. She's playing ball with the people who matter in her world and she'll have a very comfortable retirement surrounded by her Republican friends and colleagues if she loses.

Yes.  Collins has sold out but has a cushy gold-plated retirement waiting for her.  She's hardly the first politician to grow out-of-touch after two decades in power.  This well-written article about Collins political situation in Maine was quite revealing:

Cyr says it makes her nervous when she hears that Collins is being financed by billionaires like Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of the investment firm Blackstone Group and also a major Trump donor. And she doesn’t like knowing that, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, there’s been a notable increase on the senator’s reliance on corporate donations—from about 47 percent of her coffers in 2002 to over 61 percent today.

Eye said she also disapproves of Collins’ decision to accept money from corporations like pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, accused of artificially hiking the price of insulin, and the fact that Collins will attend wealthy fundraisers hosted by organizations like the Federalist Society, but the senator refuses constituent requests to host or appear at town hall meetings.

“The beer spoiled while we waited. I literally poured $10,000—all my quarterly profits—down the drain,” White says. “I contacted Susan Collins’ office asking for help. They never replied.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/07/women-maine-susan-collins-135970

[Ogre Mage]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Collins enjoyed approval ratings in the 60s during her previous races.  She's fallen like a COVID-19 victim.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state.  Her approval rating had hovered around that level for much of 2019.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

[Ogre Mage]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Collins enjoyed approval ratings in the 60s during her previous races.  She's fallen like a COVID-19 victim.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

That poll shows Collins' approvals at less than 70% of Republican, she still has room to grow among Republicans. Also there are sure to be some moderate Democrats who crossover to vote for her. It may not be enough in the end, but can Atlas please stop acting like she's DOA. This reminds of how a lot of people thought that McCaskill was destined to lose by double digits. In any case, I think Collins has hit her floor, she's seen nothing, but negative media coverage for months. She's an institution in the state, and some Democrats will appreciate that, will it be enough, we'll wait to see. But anyone calling this race Likely or Safe for either party or declaring that it's inevitable that Collins wins or Gideon wins is a clear hack. I do have Collins as the favorite in this race, but I have it at Tilt R, to me any rating from Lean R to Lean D is a reasonable assessment of this race.

I never said that but it is clear she is in a bad position.  As for my own view of the race you can click on my Senate prediction map.

[Ogre Mage]

Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

That "attack" ad is absolutely hysterical.  I thought Sara Gideon was becoming the host of a game show in which contestants won Democratic policy priorities as prizes, lol.

[Ogre Mage]

Collins current situation is not comparable to her past races because her approval ratings have plummeted into the upper 30s:

The poll showed a further drop in approval for Republican Sen. Susan Collins since last fall, from 42 percent to 37 percent, while the share of voters who disapproved of her performance climbed to 52 percent, though her approval rating with Republican voters continued to rise. Independent Sen. Angus King remained popular, with 59 percent of voters approving of his performance.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/13/politics/poll-mainers-trust-state-government-more-than-feds-on-coronavirus-response/

She won her previous races with high job approval ratings in the 60s.  But she deservedly no longer has that reputation.

A senator with a 37% approval rating in a state consistently won by the opposing party's presidential candidate is not someone likely to win reelection.  Collins advantage is that she is entrenched but she is still a modest underdog in this race.  The political environment is absolutely terrible for her and she has made some bad, bad moves.

[Ogre Mage]

Bye Susan.  Get your golden parachute ready.