ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[S019]

Jacky Rosen didn’t announce until June or July of 2017 and Kyrsten Sinema didn’t announce until September. Relax.

Also, Cramer and Scott didn’t even announce until 2018 itself. If anything, the early announcements are fairly uncommon. There’s still plenty of time. I just hope that Schumer is schmoozing Golden into it under the radar like he did with Rosen (her candidacy came completely out of the blue)

Golden only won, because he was facing a weak incumbent, who only narrowly beat Emily Cain, of all people, in 2014, of all years. Susan Collins would defeat Golden or really any of the Democrats, who are considering, stop acting like she's DOA or even a top-tier target, she'll win by 7-10, but it will be very hard for a Democrat to come within 5 points of defeating her

[S019]

No, I said that it would be closer than a double digits win, no sane person thinks Trump will win Orange County, it is going the way of PWC/Arapahoe County


That was SirWoodbury

[S019]

I remember when Tom Allen was supposed to make Collins a tossup


The Kavanaugh vote will not destroy her base completely, she’ll win by 7-10, with the margin being very inelastic

[S019]

Collins will not lose reelection.

She will be the lone New England Republican.

She will retire in 2026.

Golden is DOA in 2020, as Trump and Collins will win ME-02 by double digits

[S019]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Collins enjoyed approval ratings in the 60s during her previous races.  She's fallen like a COVID-19 victim.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

That poll shows Collins' approvals at less than 70% of Republican, she still has room to grow among Republicans. Also there are sure to be some moderate Democrats who crossover to vote for her. It may not be enough in the end, but can Atlas please stop acting like she's DOA. This reminds of how a lot of people thought that McCaskill was destined to lose by double digits. In any case, I think Collins has hit her floor, she's seen nothing, but negative media coverage for months. She's an institution in the state, and some Democrats will appreciate that, will it be enough, we'll wait to see. But anyone calling this race Likely or Safe for either party or declaring that it's inevitable that Collins wins or Gideon wins is a clear hack. I do have Collins as the favorite in this race, but I have it at Tilt R, to me any rating from Lean R to Lean D is a reasonable assessment of this race.

[S019]

I've been saying all along that this race will be a significantly tougher lift than places like NC and even GA, I'm glad to see that most of this forum is also coming to that realization. Unlike most of the vulnerable incumbents (McSally, Gardner, Purdue, Daines, Ernst), Collins has more than two years of national political exposure outside of the Trump era, and she's built a brand over 20 years. It's going to be hard for Democrats to break that brand, though this will be her closest election ever. The real question for Collins is how many Biden/Collins voters are there out there, and I'm sure that there is a good chunk of them for now, I think they're enough to get her over the hump, my guess today is Collins+1-2 and Biden+5-7. Also I do think Democrats are in trouble long-term in Maine, and as a result, the state will be much closer than people expect, I surely don't expect it to swing as much as TX or IA probably will, and I surely don't think Biden is winning Maine by double digits. Maine will probably be quite a bit to the right of the nation, which will signal, that the state will trend R, as Democrats continue to struggle in the rural Northern part of the state. Had this election been closer, say a Biden NPV lead of around 3 or 4, Trump could have very well had a good shot at Maine. But at this point, he can keep it close, but he can't win. Collins probably still can win, really the only question is how big does Biden's lead have to get for Collins to be required to win an unrealistically large amount of Biden/Collins voters, that answer is not yet clear, and probably won't be clear until Election Day. Given the lack of quality public polling as well as Maine's affinity for ticket splitting, this remains a very tough race to call, and both Democrats and Republicans should not get overconfident about this race.

[S019]

Apparently the Collins quote was fake, which makes sense, given I don't think she would actually be dumb enough to say this and tank her own campaign.

[S019]

I'm nowhere near Maine, but I've also started to get the feeling that Collins has improved her odds or at least stopped the bleeding so to speak. Who knows, though. I feel like this one has been surprisingly underpolled lately.

Glad I’m not the only one who’s felt this (obviously I have nothing to back it up).

I mean she was never going to lose by 7+ points, but time isn't on her side. I wouldn't be too shocked if she pulled it off, she surely has better odds than Tillis and probably James, but I'd still think Gideon is the favorite. It honestly depends on how many Biden/Collins voters there are and other than KS and MT, this will be the only race with significant ticket splitting and with both KS and MT tightening nationally, this might in fact end up as the race with the most ticket splitting, though we'll see if that saves her.

[S019]

This is why you listen to people who actually live in the state instead of just blindly following polling. Hopefully next time we actually have a primary where one candidate isn't chosen for us.

On the plus side, I'm very glad to see Jared Golden hold his seat considering the poor performance of some Dem representatives.

She probably retires next time, I think she would've retired this time, if Democrats didn't target her for defeat

[S019]

Landslide lyndon and wbrooks87 and Solid and S019 were so sure D's were gonna win ME

We all wanted Gideon to win, but all of them were authoritarian about, the way they kept posting polls around here.

I literally said this was a tossup race, and it took me a while to think Gideon was favored, but Collins pulling off the upset was never impossible, and honestly I thought Sabato was being risky when he moved it to Lean D, and it turns out, he was.