ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[wbrocks67]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

Ernst is not moderate.

[wbrocks67]

Dems have like a 17% registration advantage in Maine though. If most of the Dems give up on her, then that's it for her.

[wbrocks67]

Is Susan Collins trying to lose or

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1256374846726057986

[wbrocks67]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

[wbrocks67]

She is getting ratio'ed HARD on Twitter.

[wbrocks67]

The fact this article makes a big deal about "Collins' quiet political comeback", while only sourcing an *internal* R poll that has her up +1 is... a joke to put it lightly

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272366620212703239

[wbrocks67]

Sara Gideon is so good.

Also, it's a crime that there's been no polls of this race.

[wbrocks67]

Collins has worn out her welcome. Biden will help carry Gideon over the finish line.

Giden is a good recruit though.. I don't think she'd have a hard time without Biden. I don't think it's gonna be razor thin, either.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1278796161692897281

Holy sh**t. And again, this isn't even with the $4M she gets from the GoFundMe thing

[wbrocks67]

I've said and will continue to have Collins as a slight favorite, even if Biden is polling in landslide numbers. She's had a long time to build up her reputation, and even though she's damaged it, it's still there. Also, she can run to the center after she wins the R primary because of RCV, since the far right who may not put her first will still have her above Gideon most likely. RCV really does favor moderate canidates, and Susan Collins at least is percieved to be more moderate than Gideon.

A) since when is Gideon assumed to be some super-far leftist?
B) i don't think anyone can say that Collins is a moderate now with a straight face. I think the people of Maine saw the Kavanaugh vote and the health care vote, and the constant about-face on Trump all the time.

[wbrocks67]

Collins only raised $3M. Yikes

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1278857274144980993

[wbrocks67]

LMAO. Sure, jan

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1279075663119626240

[wbrocks67]

LMAO. Sure, jan

snip

Not sure if you realize this, but the votes of an energized Democratic base which will foam at the mouth no matter what Collins does won’t be enough to beat her. It would be enough in pretty much any other "blue" state, but not in ME.

It’s not like Gideon hasn’t received negative press or only Collins has been subjected to attack ads (especially recently), so not sure why this is so incredibly hard to believe.

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

Who said she was ceding the independent lane to Collins? Since when does Collins have an independent lane as she has stood with Republicans on every vote the past 4 years?

Not really sure I understand the take of "Even an energized Dem base won't give Gideon a win" - there are more registered Democrats in Maine, and Independents have seemed to sour on Collins. What else does Gideon need then?

The few polls that we've gotten have shown that Collins approval rating has soured on all fronts. Collins only raised $3M, Gideon raised $9M.

The national environment is terrible for Republicans right now.

I'm not really sure where this sudden optimism of "Titanim Collins" is coming from, when all evidence that we have, other than a *Republican Internal* that only has Collins at 45%, is not showing a pro-Collins race.

[wbrocks67]

And I'm not saying Gideon has this locked down. She doesn't. But at the very *least* it's tossup. Probably Tilt D.

I mean, the two polls that we've gotten (the only two this year) that were before Trump's standing soured even more, had Gideon winning. So I can't imagine things have gotten *better* for her since then...

[wbrocks67]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

With RCV, it makes it much more beneficial for canidates to run to the center, or at least be perceived as "bipartisan", since they won't lose as many votes from their own party base.  Also, much of her low approval is just Republicans who dislike her. Even though Ds and Independents like her less than before, she still does have some crossover appeal.

This is 100% wrong though. The last time Morning Consult did senator polling for Q4 of 2019, her Independents net approval was -10 and Democrats was -48. She lost her crossover appeal.

[wbrocks67]

It's amazing how this thread is already a trainwreck and we haven't even had a notable, high-quality poll since before COVID.

Well, we got that high quality poll and it confirms that Gideon is ahead and Collins is hated. She's -11 on independent approval. I think though that Collins is only getting 9% of self-identified Clinton voters and down by 5 in Others voters is the big kicker to what needs to be a campaign based on crossover. There is plenty of other crosstabs that confirm Collins has lost her crossover appeal.

Exactly. I don't foresee Democrats in Maine (other than the 5-10% that always vote for the other party in every election) voting for Collins this time around. And if she's lost Independents, then she's 100% screwed.

[wbrocks67]

Seems like Gideon has a pretty coherent message to me

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1280299778102964229

[wbrocks67]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

[wbrocks67]

Gideon asking for 5 debates and Collins asking for 16 are nowhere near the same thing and anyone trying to act like they are the same is being disingenuous

[wbrocks67]

Biden endorses Gideon

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1284084534087159810

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, Collins' own ad is super low energy

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1288474080174313472

[wbrocks67]

this is some Martha McSally realness

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1289541967970369536

[wbrocks67]

The GOPers this cycle are all just truly running horrific campaigns. From Collins to Ernst to McSally to Tillis to Perdue...

[wbrocks67]

Collins is just plain and simple running a horrific campaign

https://twitter.com/MaineMillennial/status/1292967032124833792