ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

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Ernst, if Franken is the nominee and Collins are toast in Nov

how is Ernst toast?

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Ernst, if Franken is the nominee and Collins are toast in Nov

how is Ernst toast?

Her opponent is. Ernst will win by 20 points in November, mark my words.

yeah I bet she'll way preform him by a lot. Not as much as Grassley over preformed him, but by a very significant margin.

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1. 2014 was a really good year for Republicans and that was when she was seen as an actual independent which, at that time, maybe there was an argument for. After the Kavanuagh vote and other times she bear hugged Trump, she seems to have lost that moderate appeal.

2. that's fair but the approval numbers are following Trump's pretty closely

3. King has always had very strong approval numbers, unlike Collins

4. Maine is more purple than Atlas will say but the senate prez margins will be very close just like 2016

5. Gideon has good fund raising, not mention a massive war chest that was raised a few years ago after the Kavanuagh vote for whoever was challenging her. Collins has been outraised by her.

6. can she save herself? sure. has she shown any indication of bucking Trump in the last two years? not at all.

7. see 4

8. I don't think I've sided with Trump on everything, but I didn't repeal Obamacare is a great message to run on

At the end of the day I think Atlas does underestimate Collins slightly and the overall partisan lean of Maine by a lot, but it clear that Collins (and certainly Trump) is not doing well in Maine.

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Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

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Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

agreed. Might have seen like the safe option to play the base in a state that Trump did well in, but now look where we are

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https://twitter.com/BetsySweetME/status/1265393908554649602
Sunrise Movement Endorses Betsy Sweet
This may seem not that important but as a member of the sunrise movement I gotta say the organization is insanely good they took Brad Sherman primary challenger in my District to from polling around 0-1% to getting 11% after endorsing him 2 weeks before the election really good groundgame which during covid translates to phonebanking and other things I expect Gideon to win the primary still but this really helps Sweet

thank god there is RCV or this would really scare me, but with it I think it turns people out that will still vote for gideon over collins

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Collins only raised $3M. Yikes

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1278857274144980993

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1278834611792027649?s=20

especially when you compare it to 9 million that Gideon raised.

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If people actually looked at the ads Sara Gideon aired they would see that she defined herself as bipartisan and actually gave pretty good examples of it. She also had "supper with Sara" thing where she goes up to different places in Maine and has dinner with people while also talking with them about the issues that voters care about (now doing it online due to covid19).

I think Susan Collins' chances and her brand is very overrated. The country is in a very different place now than in 2014. If we were to take past elections as the most important sign then Pryor would've won in 2014 because he was not even challenged in 2008. But the reality is that he lost by 17 points.

This. The ads she puts forth aren't super entertaining to people on talk elections, but they constantly stay on message with things people actually value in maine like Reproductive rights and prescription drug cost. She does not seem out of touch at all. While she is doing great events like Supper with Sara, her opponent is dodging town halls and the press which she could possibly get away with in other states but not maine

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Biden endorses Gideon

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1284084534087159810

Who else has Biden endorsed

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Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

This can’t be real. Who approved this??!?!?!?!

that's what I thought, literally not a single one of these ideas are unpopular in Maine, except gun control but even that was presented as common sense reform

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The amount of Gideon ads you get in Maine is insane.

Also I'm York County. I've seen slightly more Biden signs than Trump signs, lots of signs in general.

I've seen more Gideon signs than Biden signs.

Haven't seen a Collins sign yet.

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The amount of Gideon ads you get in Maine is insane.

Also I'm York County. I've seen slightly more Biden signs than Trump signs, lots of signs in general.

I've seen more Gideon signs than Biden signs.

Haven't seen a Collins sign yet.

Glad that Gideon is putting all that $$$$ to work

She really is. The signs look great and the ads are short and to the point

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The Maine SoS has updated their site with the final list (post-deadline) of candidates and write-in candidates. On the ballot:

Collins (R)
Gideon (D)
Linn (I)
Savage (I)

As write-ins:

Tiffany Bond ("Moderate MaineRaising Independent")
Ian Kenton Engelman ("Facts Matter")
Douglas E. Fogg (I)

I've seen a lot of Savage signs, wouldn't be surprised if she didn't get high single digits on the first ballot

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This is very smart on Gideon's behalf. Honestly, more senate candidates should be doing this. I don't think normal everyday people realize just how many conservative judges are being confirmed every single day

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1307768617208098819

great ad tying Collins directly to Trump, also glad they got that out so fast.

I don't live in Maine but I've been here a few weeks and I gotta say the Gideon team is doing a fantastic job

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From what online ads I've seen,

Gideon is flooding the online space. Now, Collins seems to try to push back but there's still no comparison.

Also Collins' ads are all from Senate leadership or one America, none from her campaign

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LOL, what an entitled, racist piece of sh**t.

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1313792122252914689

Why the reference to Gideon's place of residence? Is Freeport not considered to be real Maine?

Only a campaign that is so well disciplined, funded, and polling strongly would make such a genius attack

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Both candidates have raised so much money that they are finding it impossible to spend and the people of Maine are getting pissed at how much they are being spammed by ads.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/17/politics/maines-us-senate-race-has-attracted-so-much-money-that-its-hard-to-spend-it/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Maine/comments/jai2mi/can_we_all_agree_political_ads_are_out_of_control/

Collins only raised like $8M

That's still more than is useful in Maine.

I'm in Maine and I see Collins ads every time I watch a youtube video, sometimes from non campaign groups. But overall ad advantage in quantity and quality is to Gideon

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Let's be honest, Collins would've voted yes if it would've put them at 50. She voted nay because she wants to pretend she's bipartisan.

McConnell knew he could lose 1 or maybe 2 with his majority. Collins is the smart choice to get that. Though, I'm surprised Gardener wasn't the other vote. I guess he's given up and wants the best lobbying gig in the city

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maybe this is how we get congresswoman gideon

Heidkamp or fudge would be better

lmao at booker