ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Oryxslayer]

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue,

Not consistently, but Republicans did really well in 2014.

and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

Yeah, but Trump's current approvals are really rough in every remotely competitive state except maybe FL, where both parties have an absurdly high floor.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

This is accurate, but I wouldn’t count on the trends we saw in 2016 coming to a halt in 2020, especially in a state like ME, which is still way more Democratic than its demographics would suggest. That’s not to say that it’s guaranteed to swing or trend Republican again, but I don’t think we’ll see a MT 2008/2012 "redux" there in 2020.

Keep in mind that Maine doesn't have a strong evangelical base, and that matters a lot.
Although yes Maine is going to continue to trend republican

In fact, maine has one unusual demographic - Acadian/Quebecer Americans. A good chunk of Trump swing (not all of it mind you) can be chalked up to these guys who behave very differently from most other white demographics. If these guys snap back to the dems in 2020 maine still will have moved to the right overall, but less so than we think of now.

[Oryxslayer]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

[Oryxslayer]

We’re way past due on a quality poll coming out of here in an actual Collins vs. Gideon matchup. All we seem to know is that Collins is unpopular as it is, but not the extent of it.

I suspect that all the dedicated New England pollsters are zeroed in on NH right now, we'll probably see some in the month after the primary. What's more inexcusable is the lack of GA and CO head to head polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

Also add on the fact that the GOP put West Virginia on the back burner in favor of more immediate targets. The Dems consider Maine a top target and the race looks to be the states most expensive ever.

[Oryxslayer]

Why are people unironically replying to OC?

Oh I know, it’s just sometimes the dumbest sh**t gets a response out of me.

I'm still shocked there are people who don't have this guy muted. I have mentioned before that his comments are almost like a Markov Chain bot, but the fact that there are replies to comments prevents this from being a possibility. You don't lose anything from muting him since all comments often go on extreme tangents unhelpful to the overall discussion.

[Oryxslayer]

It's amazing how this thread is already a trainwreck and we haven't even had a notable, high-quality poll since before COVID.

Well, we got that high quality poll and it confirms that Gideon is ahead and Collins is hated. She's -11 on independent approval. I think though that Collins is only getting 9% of self-identified Clinton voters and down by 5 in Others voters is the big kicker to what needs to be a campaign based on crossover. There is plenty of other crosstabs that confirm Collins has lost her crossover appeal.

[Oryxslayer]

Collins says today that she wants 16 debates, one in each county.

The only logical conclusion from this statement is that Collins is down in her internals.

[Oryxslayer]

A challenger is going to ask for debates, but a supposedly safe incumbent usually doesn't. Gideon would want to raise her profile some with debates, whereas Collins is probably the one looking to create some sort of gotcha moment with Gideon. The difference between 5 and 16 is quite large. It's pretty crazy to even suggest 16 debates.

When internals are high on undecideds and tend to push the challenger below 40% while public polling shows otherwise then it's probably a poor internal.

These are my thoughts as well. Mind you, the question of debates is not just a GOP thing, it is a well understood tactic utilized by both parties. This is why we mock those that ask for a superfluous number of debates, because it comes off as desperate and shows weakness. It doesn't matter whether this is a primary or a general election. Weirdly, there is less scorn for those at the other end of the spectrum who are far enough ahead that they can duck debates, like Tuberville did in his primary.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/LisaForMaine/status/1303069215281295361?s=19

This is a few days old, but the thread didn't catch it. Important when it comes to RCV to ensure your voters don't leave potential second or third choices blank, since since you can still get some of what you want. In SF local politics some RCV candidates campaign with other candidates they endorse, with a message of "make us your 1 and 2, we don't care about the order."

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/billgreensmaine/status/1313508188638117888?s=20

XD