ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[GoldenMainer]

I agree with those saying Troy Jackson is the best option. He can appeal to rural inland areas since he's a logger from Aroostook County yet he can also turn out progressives in cities like Portland (he was a 2016 Bernie supporter). He's also the Senate Majority Leader so he knows his way around the block.

I love Jared Golden as a representative and he would be a great Senator but he's the wrong choice for this particular race. Just last year in his election, he ran ads all over the state highlighting that he worked with Collins. He would look stupid and opportunistic as hell to now go back and say she's a bad Senator when he was bragging about working with her mere months ago.

[GoldenMainer]

The Kavanaugh vote will not destroy her base completely, she’ll win by 7-10, with the margin being very inelastic

I agree with this, which is why I'm adamant that Democrats need to nominate the best person who can appeal to many parts of the state. Keeping margins down in more conservative rural areas (and possibly winning back ancestrally Dem areas) while destroying her in Portland, Bangor, and coastal blue areas is the winning strategy. So who is going to keep those rural margins down? It's not going to be Sara Gideon or Chellie Pingree.

The nominee must also be forceful in making the case as to why Collins sucks, and solely pointing out the Kavanaugh vote isn't going to do it. Anger from the Kavanaugh vote will lower Susan's winning margin but it's not going to put the Democrat over the top. We need a candidate who doesn't have connections to her so Republicans can't say "well so and so worked for her and they highlight that fact everywhere they go so they must be proud of it." Troy Jackson brings Golden's blue collar, working class appeal without the direct ties to Collins (Jackson won't even have to answer the questions about working for her which will distract from the real issues). And as someone who regularly stood up to Lepage, I trust him to take it to Susan.

Now is not the time to say "we need a woman", "we need a young person", etc. We need the person who can win votes in all parts of the state so we can finally get rid of Susan Collins and her fake moderate act.

[GoldenMainer]

Good move by Golden. He ran in 2016 embracing Susan Collins so he'd look really stupid attacking her if he ran for Senate. I think it's a good strategy just to embrace the bipartisan cred and try to hold onto ME02. If he loses, so what. He can always run for something else.

And it's not like we don't have another great prospect from ME02 to challenge Collins. Maine Democrats will probably be stupid and nominate Gideon though.

[GoldenMainer]

You win by painting Collins as a career politician and a Washington insider, there's clips of her promising to run for two terms and supporting term limits . You do this by running someone like Gideon whose only been in politics for a short time and has never been in Washington.

I agree with the first part of this. Democrats need to be aggressive in attacking Collins as a D.C. swamp creature.

Interestingly enough, Gideon has been to D.C. though not as a politician. She went to George Washington University. I don't think going to a private university in D.C. and working for USA Today plays as well in Maine compared to a Troy Jackson who is a logger and went to the University of Maine Fort Kent.

[GoldenMainer]

You win by painting Collins as a career politician and a Washington insider, there's clips of her promising to run for two terms and supporting term limits . You do this by running someone like Gideon whose only been in politics for a short time and has never been in Washington.

I agree with the first part of this. Democrats need to be aggressive in attacking Collins as a D.C. swamp creature.

Interestingly enough, Gideon has been to D.C. though not as a politician. She went to George Washington University. I don't think going to a private university in D.C. and working for USA Today plays as well in Maine compared to a Troy Jackson who is a logger and went to the University of Maine Fort Kent.

I'm not all that confident in Jackson considering he lost to Emily Cain of all people and he's a Berniecrat and they don't exactly have a strong record of winning competitive races lately. Gideon being a women can also make a stronger case on Collins betrayal on abortion.

That was in 2014 and Cain had the support of Emily's List and LCV behind her. Since then, Jackson's profile has been raised since he has been the Senate Minority Leader and the Senate President. If electability is your concern, Jackson wins in a Trump district (even though he's progressive) while Gideon wins in a reliably blue area. I don't think it's the best idea to run Berniecrats everywhere, but Bernie is popular here in Maine. He won our caucuses almost 2 to 1 in 2016. Jared Golden is part of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and supports Medicare for All yet he won the conservative second district. Given the state's independent nature, voters care more if a candidate appears down-to-earth and understands their needs and daily way of life. General election voters who aren't from Portland would be more likely to see a Maine-educated logger who entered politics because of a logging blockade as "one of them". They would be less likely to see a DC-educated advertising account executive as one of them. It really is that simple.

[GoldenMainer]

Interesting to note that Troy Jackson wasn't included in the first wave of Gideon endorsements, which includes AG Frey, Senate Majority Leader Nate Libby, and Hannah Pingree, along with a long list of a lot of state rep Dems and state senate dems.

Interestingly, I only saw 3 state senators on there and they are from solid blue Bangor, Portland, and Eliot. No state senators from swingier districts or rural areas. I did not see state senator Erin Herbig on there who was in state house leadership with Gideon. And I did not see Jared Golden on the list (he was also in state house leadership with Gideon). I wonder if some people are waiting to see what Jackson will do.

[GoldenMainer]

I highly doubt Snowe would have actually lost a primary challenge. If you think Collins is popular, Snowe was even more popular. When they served together, Snowe was always the star and Collins was the ugly less popular stepchild who never got the spotlight. Snowe got about 75% of the vote in 2006, a Democratic wave year. Some random upstart loser wasn't going to take her down.

[GoldenMainer]

Yeah it's kind of bizarre how so many of the red avatars here seem to think Maine is Massachusetts. Collins losing most of her crossover support from Democrats would've been a death sentence in 2008. In 2020 it is an obstacle, but far from an insurmountable one.

This. I always feel like a Debbie Downer when I comment on this race and Maine politics in general, but Maine is old, rural, and very white. Not exactly Democrat's strong points. Hillary only won the state by 3 and Collins will secure Trump's support and some crossover voters Trump can't get due to 20+ years of serving the state and having this moderate image. And the Twitter activists excited about Gideon saying she's an A+ star recruit don't know anything about Maine politics.

[GoldenMainer]

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

This remains a concern for me heading into late summer and fall. Gideon has done a nice job going after Collins but she hasn't done a good job of defining who she is and hammering home a brand for herself. Jared Golden leaned into his military service. Ads for Janet Mills focused on her marrying a widower and helping him raise his 5 kids. I still have no idea who Sara Gideon is aside from being the speaker of the Maine House of Reps. If she doesn't define herself, Collins will (and she's already starting to do so). That's why I wanted Troy Jackson as the nominee- a logger who got their start in politics by protesting labor conditions is so Maine, it hurts.

I still think Gideon can win. She's a prolific fundraiser and in a presidential year, she should be able to ride Biden coattails. It won't be easy though. Collins does a great job making herself visible across the state. She was visiting Lubec and Jackman for the 4th of July- both are in the 2nd district and she likely sees the 2nd district as an opportunity to bail her out since she's from there and Gideon isn't and it was Trump +10.

[GoldenMainer]

If people actually looked at the ads Sara Gideon aired they would see that she defined herself as bipartisan and actually gave pretty good examples of it. She also had "supper with Sara" thing where she goes up to different places in Maine and has dinner with people while also talking with them about the issues that voters care about (now doing it online due to covid19).

The healthcare ads are great. I still think she needs to give her campaign more of a personal touch ala Jared Golden & Janet Mills. It'd be smart to see what the Democrats who have actually gotten elected in the state have done and incorporate that into what she is already doing. For her, it would probably be leaning into how being a mom of young kids shapes her approach to policy. Susan Collins doesn't have any kids and she's married to a D.C. lobbyist so I don't see why Gideon wouldn't use the opportunity to connect with voters in a way Collins can not.

[GoldenMainer]

That ad is a mess. This attack ad that I keep seeing is much better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwMMIN30VTk



This still remains one of my favorites from Gideon. Simple and effective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAWTqc333Ow

[GoldenMainer]

What’s your current prediction for this race? (Even if it’s just a "gut feeling", I’m genuinely curious.)

Gut feeling:   Collins- 53 or 54  Gideon- 46 or 47

I think a lot of people underestimate how much of an institution Collins is and how she has done a solid job making herself visible all across the state especially for some of our biggest employers (Bath Iron Works, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard which employs a lot of people in southern Maine). Can she lose? Of course. Do I think much more needs to be done to make that happen? Also yes.

[GoldenMainer]

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see her struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Mills won in 2018 by under 8% and she was from the second district. She also wasn't facing a 20+ year incumbent. There was also a third-party candidate so Mills only got about 51% in a great year for Dems as a solid candidate. Gideon isn't a better statewide candidate than Mills.

[GoldenMainer]

The first Senate debate just ended. Whoever debate prepped with Gideon needs to get fired. None of her attacks on Collins landed (unfortunately). She let Collins run right over her and get away with untruths all over the place. It's sad when the independent Lisa Savage who hasn't been in politics is more coherent and on point. Max Linn was a joke and kept hawking different websites he created but even he landed a couple of jabs at Collins that landed better than anything Gideon did. What a mess...

Hopefully Collins doesn't get much of a bounce from this.

[GoldenMainer]

Collins literally couldn't even answer about supporting Trump or not. How is that good for Collins?

Collins was prepared for it, didn't miss a beat, and said Mainers didn't need her advice on who to vote for for president. Whether you agree or not (and she was clearly dodging), most people in the middle who are making up their minds would see that as a reasonable answer. Later in the debate, Collins asked Gideon if she would have supported Justice Roberts, and Gideon literally stumbled and looked like a blubbering mess. It wasn't a good look.

[GoldenMainer]

Yeah, it sounds like you're giving way too much credit to Collins here. Her dodging and and saying Mainers don't need advice is not a good answer either. Gideon dodged, but it was bad, but Collins dodged and it was fine? I don't think most people in the middle would be okay with Collins dodging but Gideon dodging on a much more irrelevant question.

Are you a Maine voter? I literally watched this with my two parents who are both independents and are undecided (they don't like some of Susan's votes but they like that she secures money for Bath Iron Works and the Portsmouth Shipyard and they liked when she talked about helping small businesses during the pandemic). They didn't care about Collins' answer but they commented on Gideon not sounding prepared with her answer.

It wasn't the dodging that made Gideon's answer bad, it was the fact that she was caught off guard and stumbled over herself to try to say something coherent.

[GoldenMainer]

Gideon actually said she would have to research when Collins asked her about voting for Roberts and honestly that was a strange question considering that Roberts has been on the court for years. That aside, saying who you support for President has nothing to do with giving voters advice on who to vote for. Regardless, I don't think either of these things are a game changer. Short of an Akin or Mourdock moment, these debates don't much matter.

After moments of silence and the moderator having to prompt her to answer the question. Then Collins got in a jab at the end about her "ducking the question." Not a bad move on Collins' part honestly. Gideon was trying to show people that Collins was ducking the question about Trump and Collins returned the favor to her. Collins looked prepared for the Trump question, Gideon was flustered with her question.

You are right that many people might not be watching. My point is, Gideon's team needs to prepare her far better if she is to win. Her performance tonight was underwhelming and Collins had a solid performance.

[GoldenMainer]

Bill Green also endorsed Collins.

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1313487109647462412

[GoldenMainer]

Is he a big name up there in ME?

How do you think the race is looking overall?

He's a well-respected icon. He had a news segment called Bill Green's Maine where he went around the state highlighting different areas. I'm not sure if it will move the needle, but he is very well-known, especially to older folks.

I did get around to watching the last debate and Gideon was better. Her jabs were more effective this time. I also think she's been dominating the ad-race- though I have been seeing more and more ads supporting Collins/attacking Gideon over time. I still think Gideon will struggle in the second district, but my gut is saying Gideon +2 or 3 right now.

[GoldenMainer]

Gideon has had the momentum for a while but now I think it's shifted a but in Susan's favor. Bill Green endorsement, Bangor Daily News endorsement, and some solid tv ads. I saw a new one today where Bath Iron Works workers spoke about the money she secured for them. That's exactly the sort of argument she needs to make to win. We'll see if she can keep up the momentum.

I love Gideon's yard sign design by the way. Light blue with dark blue and the Maine outline. So much better than the bland red Collins sign.

[GoldenMainer]

This is why you listen to people who actually live in the state instead of just blindly following polling. Hopefully next time we actually have a primary where one candidate isn't chosen for us.

On the plus side, I'm very glad to see Jared Golden hold his seat considering the poor performance of some Dem representatives.