ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Calthrina950]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

[Calthrina950]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

I can understand the logic behind this. Polarization, as we saw in the 2018 midterms, has only grown more intense, and Collins is now viewed as no different from the national Republican Party, due to her support for first the tax cuts, then Kavanaugh, and currently, her response to impeachment. How she conducts herself during this trial could very well have implications for her electoral prospects. But Collins does have that history of electoral overperformance, and she is a known quantity in the state, so Democrats can't take this race for granted. They must be willing to allocate the resources necessary here to defeat her.

[Calthrina950]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

I can understand the logic behind this. Polarization, as we saw in the 2018 midterms, has only grown more intense, and Collins is now viewed as no different from the national Republican Party, due to her support for first the tax cuts, then Kavanaugh, and currently, her response to impeachment. How she conducts herself during this trial could very well have implications for her electoral prospects. But Collins does have that history of electoral overperformance, and she is a known quantity in the state, so Democrats can't take this race for granted. They must be willing to allocate the resources necessary here to defeat her.

She should have voted against Kavanaugh, then when someone else comes along with literally the same ideology, she can vote for him/her and say "see! I am a moderate!"

The Kavanaugh vote was truly a devil's dilemma for Collins. If she had voted against him-which in my mind, was the morally correct thing, since Kavanaugh was too tainted by the Blasey Ford allegations to be appointed to the Court-she would have incurred the wrath of the Republican base, and would be in jeopardy of losing her primary. But she voted for him, and that has now cost her the support of many Democratic and independent voters who had supported her for many years.

[Calthrina950]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

[Calthrina950]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

[Calthrina950]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

That is a good question, and I'll be honest and say that I don't have an answer for it. But it would be a miscalculation for Democrats to assume that they will be handed Collins' seat on a silver platter. Impeachment alone isn't going to do it. They must also highlight Kavanaugh and the tax cuts, and construct a narrative of how Collins has consistently aided and abetted Trump since he took office.

[Calthrina950]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

That is a good question, and I'll be honest and say that I don't have an answer for it. But it would be a miscalculation for Democrats to assume that they will be handed Collins' seat on a silver platter. Impeachment alone isn't going to do it. They must also highlight Kavanaugh and the tax cuts, and construct a narrative of how Collins has consistently aided and abetted Trump since he took office.

I am not saying that it's going to be a slam-dunk, but I disagree with the general narrative that Collins is still favored.

There is one other thing though, to be considered. Just like Mitt Romney did today, Jared Golden voted to impeach Trump for abuse of power, but not for obstruction of Congress. That might give Collins some cover on the campaign trail, as she can try to claim that even some Democrats weren't completely convinced by the case. But my suspicion is that such a strategy will not work, especially since Golden represents ME-02, which Collins will carry regardless of if she wins or loses, and which she will need to win overall, since she's not going to win ME-01 this time around.

[Calthrina950]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Really? What did she said?

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Or, you know, he just wants to hold her accountable.

Well it’s a sad thing that journalists never try to hold accountable democratic politicians.
Anyway don’t really see how asking every week the same question to Collins is ’’holding her accountable’’ , by the the way Collins should be only accountable to Maine voters, not liberal far left partisan journalists

I don't think Collins can be excused for this. She had said that the President learned his lesson from the impeachment, and subsequently said that she hoped he had learned his lesson, and that he would be more cautious in the future. Now, she is saying that she wasn't "trying to predict his future behavior." Collins, in other words, has flip-flopped, and is now blatantly lying. This will be used against her by Gideon or whoever the Democratic nominee is.

[Calthrina950]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

[Calthrina950]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Straight up Comstock 2.0 lol

What I meant is that Collins will not lose by 12% like Comstock did. Maine has trended to the right in recent years-which is also why I still believe Collins will win by a Manchin or Tester-esque margin this year. But you are correct when you say that Collins, like Comstock, has stuck with the Administration on matters of critical importance.

[Calthrina950]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Really, you should change your party profile

I've never been a Republican, and it's a long and complicated story as to why I adopted this avatar, as I've explained elsewhere.

[Calthrina950]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

[Calthrina950]

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

I'm well aware of that, but what I am telling you is that Collins is as vulnerable as Manchin was last cycle. And she will win by a similar margin as him.

Friendly reminder that the last three public polls of this race have shown Collins leading Gideon 51%-29%, 52%-36%, and 52%-35%, respectively. Yes, that was in March, June, and July 2019, i.e. before impeachment, but it was also after her Kavanaugh vote.

It’s one thing to argue that Collins is vulnerable and that she could actually lose this time but quite another to say that she’s DOA, as doomed as Barbara Comstock, could actually underperform Trump, etc. Reading this forum you’d think Collins was running in Hawaiʻi and trailing badly in every single poll.

As I've said before, these numbers are startlingly similar to those which we saw in polls between Joe Manchin and Patrick Morrisey. And they accord with my final expectation-that Collins wins reelection by around 2-5%, probably 52-48%, 51-47%, or something similar.

The difference is Manchin voted for Kavanaugh , and if he didn’t he would have lost

Also add on the fact that the GOP put West Virginia on the back burner in favor of more immediate targets. The Dems consider Maine a top target and the race looks to be the states most expensive ever.

This much is true, but it doesn't change the fundamental dynamic which I've been trying to highlight: that Collins, like Manchin, will go from a landslide win in her last election to a narrow victory this time, if she prevails.

[Calthrina950]

Very "disappointing" numbers for Collins in a new poll:

https://twitter.com/nathanTbernard/status/1249778630114381835?s=20

She's toast.

Not yet, but I don't think it's a stretch to declare Maine a Tossup at this point. It is not Lean R right now.

[Calthrina950]

Very "disappointing" numbers for Collins in a new poll:

https://twitter.com/nathanTbernard/status/1249778630114381835?s=20

She's toast.

Not yet, but I don't think it's a stretch to declare Maine a Tossup at this point. It is not Lean R right now.

Sabato changed ratings to Leans D

Lean D is also a stretch, particularly since we haven't seen any recent polls showing Gideon leading Collins by a significant margin-and by "significant", I mean a margin comparable to that of Mark Kelly in Arizona, a state that I do consider to be leaning Democratic at this time. But it is clear at this point that Collins is probably the third or fourth most vulnerable Republican incumbent, after Gardner, McSally, and (possibly) Tillis.

[Calthrina950]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

[Calthrina950]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

[Calthrina950]

I don't know if this has been posted yet here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/07/women-maine-susan-collins-135970. This is a very interesting article on the predicament that Collins now finds herself in. Many of the people interviewed in this article are voters who previously supported Collins and once had a high opinion of her, but now believe that she has betrayed Maine and turned her back on her principles. It is because of voters like these that Collins is in serious jeopardy.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

At this point I want her to lose more than Trump. At least he’s open about being sh!tty.

I'm not a staunch pro-choice advocate, but I definitely think that Collins betrayed her constituents in this respect, by voting for someone who would rule in a way adverse to their interests. And Gideon has seized upon that, as any good opponent would. It's clearer, day by day, that the Kavanaugh vote was a critical mistake on Collins' part, and may very well have already sealed her fate.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah... Collins isn't winning this November

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1277715622697238529

At this point I want her to lose more than Trump. At least he’s open about being sh!tty.

I'm not a staunch pro-choice advocate, but I definitely think that Collins betrayed her constituents in this respect, by voting for someone who would rule in a way adverse to their interests. And Gideon has seized upon that, as any good opponent would. It's clearer, day by day, that the Kavanaugh vote was a critical mistake on Collins' part, and may very well have already sealed her fate.

In a weird twist of events, Brett Kavanaugh himself has aborted Collins' re-election campaign. Thoughts & prayers, Susan!

That is true. It's still something to think about, when you realize that Collins was "upstaged" on Kavanaugh by Murkowski and on impeachment by Romney. I still don't understand why she's decided to "sell her soul to the Devil" these past few years. Had she gone the opposite direction on these things, she would be in a better position. Given her prior record and Maine's favoritism for mavericks and third-party candidates, she would have easily held her seat as an independent. But that path is foreclosed now.

[Calthrina950]

Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

That has to be one of the worst attack ads I've ever seen,  Gideon's campaign could play that as an advertisement.

They even positive, happy sounding music

What is this? If Collins thinks that supporting affordable healthcare for Mainers and prioritizing adequate gun control legislation for Mainers is working against Maine, then I don't what her priorities are. Especially considering that many of the things highlighted in the ad are policy objectives that Collins herself has professed to believe in for many years. If anything, her ad has helped expose viewers to many of Gideons' substantive policy positions (positions that a majority of Mainers agree with), which will be a boon to her, not a detriment.

[Calthrina950]

This is an interesting interview: https://www.foxnews.com/media/susan-collins-lincoln-project-sexist-attack-ad. Collins is now accusing the "far-left" of launching "sexist" attacks against her-namely, by accusing her of being a stooge for Trump and McConnell. She repeated her line about having never missed a single vote, and emphasized that she was an "independent, bipartisan" Senator, in contrast to Sara Gideon, who she describes as a puppet for Chuck Schumer. She described the recent House proposals for a second coronavirus stimulus as a "Democratic wish-list" and claimed that Democrats would "ram through" unpopular legislation.

It's clear from this interview that Collins was throwing a bone out to the Trumpists and the Republican base, but at the same time, she was still trying to maintain some of her standing with independents. Later in the interview, when asked whether or not she thought Trump deserved a second term, she evaded the question, saying she was "focused on her work" and did not want to tangle herself with presidential politics.

From hearing this interview, I can easily understand why Collins is in such trouble. The woman has lost her mind, and needs to be rejected by her state's voters.

[Calthrina950]

Collins is just plain and simple running a horrific campaign

https://twitter.com/MaineMillennial/status/1292967032124833792

She sounds no different from a Trumpist or Tea Party extremist here.

[Calthrina950]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

Collins really does want to be like one of her biggest inspirations - down to where she also loses her bid for a fifth term.

It's interesting how Margaret Chase-Smith lost reelection in a year that Richard Nixon swept the state with more than 60% of the vote against George McGovern. Obviously, Maine (and the country) were far less polarized back then, and ticket-splitting was much more common. It is this which now could be Collins' undoing, as I don't think she'll run ahead of Trump enough to win, although she does still have a chance.

[Calthrina950]

This is another interesting article about Susan Collins' predicament: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/maine-turned-on-susan-collins.html. As with the Politico article that I posted before, this article examines why Collins' approval ratings have collapsed to the extent they have, and how many Democratic and independent voters who had supported her in her previous races now detest her, and want her out.

Democratic activism in Maine seems to have increased substantially over the past three years, and Collins' tax vote, her vote to confirm Kavanaugh, and her vote to acquit Trump are identified as the three main factors which have destroyed her popularity. They also interviewed Shenna Bellows, Collins' 2014 opponent, who lost to her by a 2-1 margin last time, and who seems to be heartened by how Maine's voters have "been awakened" to Collins' true character.