ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[LimoLiberal]

LMAO. Sure, jan

snip

Not sure if you realize this, but the votes of an energized Democratic base which will foam at the mouth no matter what Collins does won’t be enough to beat her. It would be enough in pretty much any other "blue" state, but not in ME.

It’s not like Gideon hasn’t received negative press or only Collins has been subjected to attack ads (especially recently), so not sure why this is so incredibly hard to believe.

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

[LimoLiberal]

If Biden is leading by big margins in the fall and voters largely expect him to win, Collins could cast herself as a check on a Biden presidency which could allow some Biden-Collins voters. This is what happened in 2016 in many Clinton-friendly suburban districts (VA-10, MN-03).

It's also possible that the GOP is too inexorably linked to Trump at this point that that sort of strategy is untenable. But if any GOPer were able to use an almost certain Biden presidency to their advantage it would be Collins, who had a moderate reputation in Maine for decades before the Trump era. 

[LimoLiberal]

LMAO. Sure, jan

snip

Not sure if you realize this, but the votes of an energized Democratic base which will foam at the mouth no matter what Collins does won’t be enough to beat her. It would be enough in pretty much any other "blue" state, but not in ME.

It’s not like Gideon hasn’t received negative press or only Collins has been subjected to attack ads (especially recently), so not sure why this is so incredibly hard to believe.

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

Maybe someone from the Gideon camp read my post because she just released an ad about bipartisanship on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1280303532491575296

[LimoLiberal]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

I mean, Collins is a federal lawmaker who was involved in creating the PPP legislation. Gideon is the Speaker of the Maine State House. I don't see how her husband taking PPP money is relevant.

[LimoLiberal]

Really dislike all this Moderate Hero action for Collins. Democrats can't take this seat for granted. If NC and ME go south they're left with IA and... who knows.