ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Xing]

Collins isn't going to be easy to beat, but those saying that this race is Safe R clearly haven't been paying attention over the past several years. She may still be decently liked right now, but she's definitely lost a lot of her crossover appeal, even if she hasn't lost all of it. If Trump only loses Maine by a low-mid single digit margin again, yeah, she probably wins, but if he loses it by more, I think Democrats have a chance here. Lean R for now.

[Xing]

I don't think she's at all DOA, but it's pretty clear that she could lose. (I'd rate this race a Toss-Up.) I'll respond to some of the points you've made.

1. Plenty of incumbents have lost competitive races after winning races which weren't seriously contested by wide margins.

2. Maybe, but her approval ratings among Democrats and Independents is WAY down, and unlike some other Republicans who can pretty much just match Trump's vote share to win, she'll very likely need to overperform Trump, possibly by more than a few points to win re-election.

3. Polls have shown Collins losing support among Independents, and ranked choice voting means that she won't be able to benefit from fracturing on the left.

4. It's certainly more of a swing state/light blue state than in was before, but again, if she isn't popular among Democrats/Independents, she's just as vulnerable as any swing state incumbent.

5. The idea that moderates are more electable by nature is overly simplistic, and the people who pedal this talking point do extreme cherry-picking to support it. Gideon doesn't need to be "moderate" to beat Collins any more than Scott needed to be "moderate" to beat Nelson, who voted with Trump more than Collins voted against Trump.

6. Maybe, but she seems more concerned with solidifying support among Republicans than trying to get more crossover appeal. And even if she does change course, a lot of the damage she's done with the Kavanaugh vote and her vote not to convict Trump is probably already done.

7. No, but it could go for Biden by 5-ish or a bit more, so if she's not overperforming him by much, she's definitely in trouble.

8. See point 6.

[Xing]

I mean, if the national environment doesn’t improve or only gets worse for Republicans, my guess would be that Collins (narrowly) loses, but assuming that this seat will be a slam dunk or is already gone for Republicans would be a mistake. Collins has lost a lot of support over the last few years, but she might not need that many Biden voters to eke out a win.

[Xing]

Collins is really not running a good campaign. She’s clearly a little too used to effortlessly winning in landslides because voters think she’s “moderate” and “independent.” There might be just enough of those voters left for her to scrape by, but her actions don’t suggest that she thinks she’s ahead.

[Xing]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

This race isn't over yet, Collins could still win, but good god, take a chill pill, Joe III!

Anyway, yeah, Collins is terrible. She's always been, she's just dropping the act more these days, while still making the occasional empty gesture to appear """"""""""moderate"""""""""".