ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[wbrocks67]

I have a feeling Collins will put out one more victory.

Collins has not led a single public poll this entire year.

[dunceDude]

I"m a bit hesitant to think of this as Tilt D. Getting 68% of the vote in the last election is pretty insane. Even though she's not really a moderate, she is a testament to a different kind of Senate and it'll be a different place without her.

[MT Treasurer]

McLaughlin said last week that their NRSC internal polling shows Collins ahead outside the margin of error. The guy was obviously wildly overconfident about his party's chances of holding the Senate and often doesn’t know what he’s talking about, but I do think that there’s more uncertainty in this race than in AZ/CO/NC and that Democrats were right to expand the map into KS/MT/etc., especially in case Collins ekes out another win and they don’t get all 4 pick-ups in AZ/CO/NC/ME. I’m not necessarily predicting that it will happen, but it’s interesting how confident Republicans seem to be about this particular race given what all the polling which has actually been released so far has shown.

[wbrocks67]

McLaughlin said last week that their NRSC internal polling shows Collins ahead outside the margin of error. The guy was obviously wildly overconfident about his party's chances of holding the Senate and often doesn’t know what he’s talking about, but I do think that there’s more uncertainty in this race than in AZ/CO/NC and that Democrats were right to expand the map into KS/MT/etc., especially in case Collins ekes out another win and they don’t get all 4 pick-ups in AZ/CO/NC/ME. I’m not necessarily predicting that it will happen, but it’s interesting how confident Republicans seem to be about this particular race given what all the polling which has actually been released so far has shown.

well their first mistake was making McLaughlin the polling go-to.... what in the world?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/PAULUSV3/status/1300613949512187904

[WD]

https://twitter.com/PAULUSV3/status/1300613949512187904

I can’t wait for this fool to lose.

[Roll Roons]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

[WD]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

lol @ that county map

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/PAULUSV3/status/1300613949512187904

This statement is so pathetic.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PAULUSV3/status/1300613949512187904

Girl, what?? Just say "Yes, I am not endorsing him. But, if he is reelected I will fully support him as our President."

[S019]

Apparently the Collins quote was fake, which makes sense, given I don't think she would actually be dumb enough to say this and tank her own campaign.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

Collins really does want to be like one of her biggest inspirations - down to where she also loses her bid for a fifth term.

[Calthrina950]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

Collins really does want to be like one of her biggest inspirations - down to where she also loses her bid for a fifth term.

It's interesting how Margaret Chase-Smith lost reelection in a year that Richard Nixon swept the state with more than 60% of the vote against George McGovern. Obviously, Maine (and the country) were far less polarized back then, and ticket-splitting was much more common. It is this which now could be Collins' undoing, as I don't think she'll run ahead of Trump enough to win, although she does still have a chance.

[Storr]

Apparently the Collins quote was fake, which makes sense, given I don't think she would actually be dumb enough to say this and tank her own campaign.

Yeah, if any 4 decade long politician said something like that you'd have to worry about their mental state. lol

[wbrocks67]

Not a good look, Susan

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1301316477887209474

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine

I think history just might repeat itself.

Collins really does want to be like one of her biggest inspirations - down to where she also loses her bid for a fifth term.

It's interesting how Margaret Chase-Smith lost reelection in a year that Richard Nixon swept the state with more than 60% of the vote against George McGovern. Obviously, Maine (and the country) were far less polarized back then, and ticket-splitting was much more common. It is this which now could be Collins' undoing, as I don't think she'll run ahead of Trump enough to win, although she does still have a chance.

Her problem is that she has cast key votes for clearly partisan reasons that were widely at odds with the state she represents on three extremely high-profile issues:

1) The GOP tax bill (which IIRC gutted the individual mandate*);

2) Casting the de facto deciding vote for Brett Kavanaugh (since Manchin would‘ve likely voted against confirming Kavanaugh if Collins did).  This is the one that really started causing Democrats to start seeing her as just Republican. 

3) She voted against removing Trump from office and then he made her look like an idiot with the “learned his lesson“ incident.

TL;DR: Collins seems to have mistakenly assumed that 2016 meant that Maine was Trump-curious enough that she could safely vote how she wanted.  Plus, Collins’ schtick required her to fly under the radar, but now she has Democrats’ attention in a way she never has before.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1303359881135546369

This probably helps Collins, right?

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine it would help Gideon? Since I would think most 3rd party voters would probably majority go to her?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1303359881135546369

This probably helps Collins, right?

That's my guess too. RCV usually helps the incumbent and/or the canidate who is percieved to be more of the centrist.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/politicswolf/status/1303359881135546369
This probably helps Collins, right?

RCV was always going to be used for the Congressional races; the veto referendum was only for the presidential contest.

In theory, Collins should have more upside than Gideon from RCV because she is a more alienating figure within her own party base than Gideon is among Democrats, but it could go either way at this point and I think the local Republican campaigns against RCV means it will be marginally in Gideon's favour.

Lisa Savage (an independent registered with the Green party) has registered in at least one poll and the nationalist independent Max Linn has not - then again, would this even have happened if respondents weren't aware that they could have Savage as their first choice and opt for Gideon afterwards? It's hard to tell.

Allies of Collins unsuccessfully tried to get Max Linn off the ballot (he later suspended and then relaunched his campaign). I presume they did that because they feared Trump supporters who'd been told not to trust RCV would hesitate to use it even to help Republicans. In the Republican primary for ME-02 this year, 27% of Brakey voters did not give a second preference to Bennett or Crafts when their first choice was eliminated, but choosing between those two was always going to be a harder decision for Republicans than (D) vs (R).

[Ferguson97]

I just have to imagine there will be more people who rank Gideon last than Collins last

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just have to imagine there will be more people who rank Gideon last than Collins last

Well I think just Collins being the incumbent with a big name will land her name above Gideon's on so many ballots.

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1303737180527955969

[ProgressiveModerate]

This race still is a tossup.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1303737180527955969

Yeah, because that worked out so well for the last Republican Senator that Lieberman endorsed.