ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It's possible the Kavanaugh vote ends up benefiting her politically-she may not have been able to be renominated if she had voted against and been responsible for stopping both Obamacare repeal and the Kavanaugh nomination, and she may have enough of a positive image with moderates and Maine may be close enough to a swing state to make the damage she takes with the general electorate for the Kavanaugh vote survivable. I hope that she is proven wrong here, but Collins probably only needs to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

She was a safe bet to win renomination regardless of how she voted on Kavanaugh. If there was any appetite among Maine Republicans to replace her, they would have done so in 2014. The Tea Party was very much already around and strong by then.

Nobody would have ever cared negatively about it had she voted against Kavanaugh unless the nomination failed and she kept on voting against not just Kavanaugh but also all other nominees Trump put up afterwards as well, and only if Kavanaugh ended up failing as a result as well. Contrarily, she probably could have managed to erase the fall she took to her formerly centrist reputation from when she voted for the Tax Bill in 2017 if she voted against Kavanaugh, but by voting for Kavanaugh, she instead dug the hole even deeper.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The taint of having Jeff Sessions around in moderate states like KS, CO, AZ and ME, has a direct effect on Senate GOP, with 22 GOPers up and only 10 Dems.

[MT Treasurer]

It's possible the Kavanaugh vote ends up benefiting her politically-she may not have been able to be renominated if she had voted against and been responsible for stopping both Obamacare repeal and the Kavanaugh nomination, and she may have enough of a positive image with moderates and Maine may be close enough to a swing state to make the damage she takes with the general electorate for the Kavanaugh vote survivable. I hope that she is proven wrong here, but Collins probably only needs to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

I wonder if she’ll move right now that she’s the top target by Democrats and much of her goodwill with them has faded, not to mention that this will almost certainly be her last term anyway and the state is probably only going to get more Republican. I could see her voting more like a Republican counterpart to Jon Tester rather than a Joe Manchin, but then again who knows.

[Pericles]

It's possible the Kavanaugh vote ends up benefiting her politically-she may not have been able to be renominated if she had voted against and been responsible for stopping both Obamacare repeal and the Kavanaugh nomination, and she may have enough of a positive image with moderates and Maine may be close enough to a swing state to make the damage she takes with the general electorate for the Kavanaugh vote survivable. I hope that she is proven wrong here, but Collins probably only needs to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

She was a safe bet to win renomination regardless of how she voted on Kavanaugh. If there was any appetite among Maine Republicans to replace her, they would have done so in 2014. The Tea Party was very much already around and strong by then.

Nobody would have ever cared negatively about it had she voted against Kavanaugh unless the nomination failed and she kept on voting against not just Kavanaugh but also all other nominees Trump put up afterwards as well, and only if Kavanaugh ended up failing as a result as well. Contrarily, she probably could have managed to erase the fall she took to her formerly centrist reputation from when she voted for the Tax Bill in 2017 if she voted against Kavanaugh, but by voting for Kavanaugh, she instead dug the hole even deeper.

Thing is, her voting against Kavanaugh would have stopped him from being confirmed (as Manchin waited until she decided to go for Kavanaugh so would have voted with her against Kavanaugh). Brraking the party line on two key votes in one term, both votes decisive, would have left her severely vulnerable to a primary challenge.

[IceSpear]

It's possible the Kavanaugh vote ends up benefiting her politically-she may not have been able to be renominated if she had voted against and been responsible for stopping both Obamacare repeal and the Kavanaugh nomination, and she may have enough of a positive image with moderates and Maine may be close enough to a swing state to make the damage she takes with the general electorate for the Kavanaugh vote survivable. I hope that she is proven wrong here, but Collins probably only needs to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

Yeah it's kind of bizarre how so many of the red avatars here seem to think Maine is Massachusetts. Collins losing most of her crossover support from Democrats would've been a death sentence in 2008. In 2020 it is an obstacle, but far from an insurmountable one.

[GoldenMainer]

Yeah it's kind of bizarre how so many of the red avatars here seem to think Maine is Massachusetts. Collins losing most of her crossover support from Democrats would've been a death sentence in 2008. In 2020 it is an obstacle, but far from an insurmountable one.

This. I always feel like a Debbie Downer when I comment on this race and Maine politics in general, but Maine is old, rural, and very white. Not exactly Democrat's strong points. Hillary only won the state by 3 and Collins will secure Trump's support and some crossover voters Trump can't get due to 20+ years of serving the state and having this moderate image. And the Twitter activists excited about Gideon saying she's an A+ star recruit don't know anything about Maine politics.

[Zaybay]

Im pretty sure the reason people are excited is because she reached an even approval in the summer of 2019. Approval ratings rarely go up during a campaign cycle, and shes already reached the same point Donelly, McCaskill, and Heitkamp reached in the Summer/Fall of 2018. If the election were to be held today, then yes, much of the points brought up by y'all would be incredibly valid and Collins would probably win. Lets see what another year does to her chances.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1162387200958484487

[SnowLabrador]

I disagree. It should still be Lean R at least.

[Gracile]

I think it's still a bit early to peg the race as a tossup.

[Suburbia]

I think Collins retires to run for Maine governor in 2022. Charlie Summers wins the seat, stays in R hands.

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1162387200958484487

Cook Political Report does a lot of things.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is in trouble, Dems will do better in ME-2 than in 2016, due to fact Democrat holds the seat

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1162387200958484487

It's almost as if they want to nudge her into retiring and enjoying a very wealthy retirement.

[Senator Incitatus]

I think this is extremely dumb but also hilarious. (Could be for copyright/association purposes.)

https://twitter.com/emilyelarsen/status/1164972725481431040

[Brittain33]

Collins is a popular moderate republican in a state that’s trending R fast. Likely R.

It’s trending R so fast it replaced an R governor, congressman, and several legislators (double digits in the House) with Democrats in 2018.

Collins is so popular that Morning Consult found that only McConnell has a higher disapproval rating with his voters among 100 senators.

[Blair]

Do we even know if Collins is running? This really seems like a scenario where it’s perfect to retire

Collins is a popular moderate republican in a state that’s trending R fast. Likely R.

Is there any evidence she’s popular?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins can definitely lose with Cook changing ratings to tossup and Dem majority would be at hand if Michael Franken runs against Ernst

[MT Treasurer]

It’s trending R so fast it replaced an R governor, congressman, and several legislators (double digits in the House) with Democrats in 2018.

So VA wasn’t trending D fast in 2009, 2010, and 2011? Obviously a party can recover some lost ground in states trending away from them in massive wave years.

[Politician]

It’s trending R so fast it replaced an R governor, congressman, and several legislators (double digits in the House) with Democrats in 2018.

So VA wasn’t trending D fast in 2009, 2010, and 2011? Obviously a party can recover some lost ground in states trending away from them in massive wave years.

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue, and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s trending R so fast it replaced an R governor, congressman, and several legislators (double digits in the House) with Democrats in 2018.

So VA wasn’t trending D fast in 2009, 2010, and 2011? Obviously a party can recover some lost ground in states trending away from them in massive wave years.

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue, and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

Maine sure looked like a red state across the board in 2014

[MT Treasurer]

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue,

Not consistently, but Republicans did really well in 2014.

and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

Yeah, but Trump's current approvals are really rough in every remotely competitive state except maybe FL, where both parties have an absurdly high floor.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

This is accurate, but I wouldn’t count on the trends we saw in 2016 coming to a halt in 2020, especially in a state like ME, which is still way more Democratic than its demographics would suggest. That’s not to say that it’s guaranteed to swing or trend Republican again, but I don’t think we’ll see a MT 2008/2012 "redux" there in 2020.

[windjammer]

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue,

Not consistently, but Republicans did really well in 2014.

and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

Yeah, but Trump's current approvals are really rough in every remotely competitive state except maybe FL, where both parties have an absurdly high floor.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

This is accurate, but I wouldn’t count on the trends we saw in 2016 coming to a halt in 2020, especially in a state like ME, which is still way more Democratic than its demographics would suggest. That’s not to say that it’s guaranteed to swing or trend Republican again, but I don’t think we’ll see a MT 2008/2012 "redux" there in 2020.

Keep in mind that Maine doesn't have a strong evangelical base, and that matters a lot.
Although yes Maine is going to continue to trend republican

[Badger]

It’s trending R so fast it replaced an R governor, congressman, and several legislators (double digits in the House) with Democrats in 2018.

So VA wasn’t trending D fast in 2009, 2010, and 2011? Obviously a party can recover some lost ground in states trending away from them in massive wave years.

Show evidence that Trump's still losing the state, albeit taking the second district, wasn't an example of this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The taking of ME-2 was prior to 2018 Dem sweep