ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[swf541]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

Or they'd leave it blank

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

Or they'd leave it blank

Doubt that. Republicans tend to be very motivated to gain power at all costs. Collins is better than Gideon in the senate for them, and that's all that matters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

Or they'd leave it blank

It's possible, but the thing about preferential voting is that once a "protest vote" has been cast, it's generally easier to think a little more strategically, especially if the justice was confirmed anyway.

[swf541]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.

I suspect RCV will solve this problem. Many will vote for Linn with their hearts and give her their second preference with their heads.

Or they'd leave it blank

It's possible, but the thing about preferential voting is that once a "protest vote" has been cast, it's generally easier to think a little more strategically, especially if the justice was confirmed anyway.

Fair enough

[MT Treasurer]

I’m not sure I understand the reasoning behind the notion that this isn’t a lose-lose situation for Collins. "Moderate posturing" hasn’t exactly worked for Collins so far in an environment in which there’s little appetite for bipartisanship and the partisan fronts couldn’t be more unambiguously defined and rabidly opposed to each other. She’s going to lose most of her remaining support from the few Democratic-leaning independents still willing to consider her when the race becomes hyper-nationalized and closely tracks with the presidential race after an AYE vote (this would be a good bet if Trump was on track for reelection and/or competitive in ME, but he’s not), and she’s going to lose base support if she votes to reject his nominee while winning over a very limited numbers of Biden voters (certainly not enough to offset losses among the Republican/Trump base). RCV might help a little, but I feel like people underestimate the number of Trump supporters who wouldn’t rank her at all as well as the number of Biden voters who have already made up their mind about Collins and won’t rank her at all.

I was always skeptical that this would be the third Democratic pickup and that ME would flip before NC, but it’s really hard to see how she finds a way out of this, especially with Biden vastly improving over Clinton's result in ME (he’s not going to win it by 17-21 points, but even high single digits/low double digits will be difficult to overcome). Her entire shtick probably just doesn’t work in this era.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

[President Johnson]

I'm actually not sold on Collins voting No on the floor. She certainly opposes a floor vote taking place before the election, but Moscow Mitch will ram it through anyway. I could see her saying "Well, I opposed putting a nominee forward, but now that I was presented the choice, I won't vote No just for the sake of voting No before the election. Said nominee by Trump is a solid/independent jurist and qualified to serve, so I will vote Yes. That also puts the court countrovery to rest ahead of the election... blablabla"

She may urge Mitch to delay the vote until after the election, but he'll move forward regardless since he is an extreme partisan hack.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm actually not sold on Collins voting No on the floor. She certainly opposes a floor vote taking place before the election, but Moscow Mitch will ram it through anyway. I could see her saying "Well, I opposed putting a nominee forward, but now that I was presented the choice, I won't vote No just for the sake of voting No before the election. Said nominee by Trump is a solid/independent jurist and qualified to serve, so I will vote Yes. That also puts the court countrovery to rest ahead of the election... blablabla"

She may urge Mitch to delay the vote until after the election, but he'll move forward regardless since he is an extreme partisan hack.

If Biden wouldnt have advanced Clarence Thomas to the floor of Senate in 1991, which his Dem lead committee did anyways, Clarenxe Thomas in a Democratic Senate would not have voted for Clarence Thomas in an Anita Hill hearing

Biden played his part in discouraging Anita Hill and believing Clarence Thomas too. He voted no on final passage though, but voted yes along with Teddy Kennedy and Pat Leahy to advance Thomas out of Judicial committees

[wbrocks67]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

[KaiserDave]

I’m not sure I understand the reasoning behind the notion that this isn’t a lose-lose situation for Collins. "Moderate posturing" hasn’t exactly worked for Collins so far in an environment in which there’s little appetite for bipartisanship and the partisan fronts couldn’t be more unambiguously defined and rabidly opposed to each other. She’s going to lose most of her remaining support from the few Democratic-leaning independents still willing to consider her when the race becomes hyper-nationalized and closely tracks with the presidential race after an AYE vote (this would be a good bet if Trump was on track for reelection and/or competitive in ME, but he’s not), and she’s going to lose base support if she votes to reject his nominee while winning over a very limited numbers of Biden voters (certainly not enough to offset losses among the Republican/Trump base). RCV might help a little, but I feel like people underestimate the number of Trump supporters who wouldn’t rank her at all as well as the number of Biden voters who have already made up their mind about Collins and won’t rank her at all.

I was always skeptical that this would be the third Democratic pickup and that ME would flip before NC, but it’s really hard to see how she finds a way out of this, especially with Biden vastly improving over Clinton's result in ME (he’s not going to win it by 17-21 points, but even high single digits/low double digits will be difficult to overcome). Her entire shtick probably just doesn’t work in this era.

Finally, sanity and basic awareness!


(I expected this of course, you’re a good poster)

[NewYorkExpress]

Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker, endorse Collins.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) are endorsing Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine’s hotly contested Senate race, cutting ads in support of the longtime incumbent as she faces the most serious reelection fight of her political career.

The ads, shared first with The Hill, are part of a $450,000 ad blitz by the Republican Jewish Coalition and come a week after the group launched another spot in which former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, threw his support behind Collins’s reelection.

The endorsements from Hogan and Baker are particularly unique. Both are Republican governors of deep-blue states and rarely endorse in races outside their home.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker, endorse Collins.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) are endorsing Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine’s hotly contested Senate race, cutting ads in support of the longtime incumbent as she faces the most serious reelection fight of her political career.

The ads, shared first with The Hill, are part of a $450,000 ad blitz by the Republican Jewish Coalition and come a week after the group launched another spot in which former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, threw his support behind Collins’s reelection.

The endorsements from Hogan and Baker are particularly unique. Both are Republican governors of deep-blue states and rarely endorse in races outside their home.

Yes, the Republican governors no one in Maine has ever heard of are big #gamechangers

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

In case some others haven't seen it. Collins will not vote for SCOTUS nominee in lame duck or before election.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-19/sen-collins-senate-shouldn-t-vote-on-nominee-before-election?utm_content=politics&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

[NCJeff]

In case some others haven't seen it. Collins will not vote for SCOTUS nominee in lame duck or before election.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-19/sen-collins-senate-shouldn-t-vote-on-nominee-before-election?utm_content=politics&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

Has she definitively said she would vote "no" in a floor vote before the election?  Every version of her statement I can find is extremely hedgy and seems positioned to leave the door open to voting yes.

For instance her Senate website has the following statement (https://www.wmtw.com/article/senator-collins-issues-statement-on-supreme-court-vacancy/34085361):

“In order for the American people to have faith in their elected officials, we must act fairly and consistently—no matter which political party is in power.  President Trump has the constitutional authority to make a nomination to fill the Supreme Court vacancy, and I would have no objection to the Senate Judiciary Committee's beginning the process of reviewing his nominee's credentials.

“Given the proximity of the presidential election, however, I do not believe that the Senate should vote on the nominee prior to the election.  In fairness to the American people, who will either be re-electing the President or selecting a new one, the decision on a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court should be made by the President who is elected on November 3rd.”

Not exactly an indication of how she'd approach a floor vote.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

In case some others haven't seen it. Collins will not vote for SCOTUS nominee in lame duck or before election.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-19/sen-collins-senate-shouldn-t-vote-on-nominee-before-election?utm_content=politics&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

Bologna. Once she's lost re-election, she has nothing to lose by screwing us over for the next 40 years

[Ferguson97]

Bologna. Once she's lost re-election, she has nothing to lose by screwing us over for the next 40 years

Yup.

My current prediction is a 50-50 lameduck confirmation with Pence breaking the tie.

[Non Swing Voter]

In case some others haven't seen it. Collins will not vote for SCOTUS nominee in lame duck or before election.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-19/sen-collins-senate-shouldn-t-vote-on-nominee-before-election?utm_content=politics&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

Bologna. Once she's lost re-election, she has nothing to lose by screwing us over for the next 40 years

Well presumably she still wants to live in Maine.  I don't think she'd want to live there after doing that to her constituents.  But maybe she has Palm Beach retirement plans.

[Stockdale for Veep]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

Good point. I doubt the voters of Maine are as dumb as the WV's that still voted for Diamond Joe.

[Pericles]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

Good point. I doubt the voters of Maine are as dumb as the WV's that still voted for Diamond Joe.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Manchin did vote for Kavanaugh (he did decide right after Collins did, so probably wouldn't have been the deciding vote for him).

[Calthrina950]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

Good point. I doubt the voters of Maine are as dumb as the WV's that still voted for Diamond Joe.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Manchin did vote for Kavanaugh (he did decide right after Collins did, so probably wouldn't have been the deciding vote for him).

He's probably referring to how Manchin and Collins have both been reliable votes for their Parties when their votes are absolutely necessary and are on a critical issue. You alluded to this when describing how Manchin decided to vote for Kavanaugh only after Collins did so, realizing that he could safely cast an affirmative vote without it making a difference either way. If it had come down to him, he would have joined Tester, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly in voting in the negative. And Collins, as we saw with the votes on impeachment and witnesses, took stances that would similarly be of aid to her Party-voting in the affirmative on witnesses only because she knew that witnesses would not be approved.

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin completely conned WV voters in 2018 and they totally fell for it, but given that it’s WV we’re talking about, it’s only par for the course. It would have been fun to see some of the entertaining reactions of Trump/Manchin voters to Manchin voting for impeachment. The fact that Republicans couldn’t beat him in 2018 after all the fodder for attack ads they had was easily the most humiliating Senate result of the last two decades for either party, even more so than AL-SEN 2017 (which you can chalk up to turnout patterns in a special election and Moore being an atrocious candidate/campaigner). It was the equivalent of Democrats losing a Senate race in HI and the Republican Senator from HI proceeding to vote for Obama's impachment the year after the election. Can’t wait for WV's reactions when the Senate under Biden is 50-50 and Manchin is the deciding vote until 2023, lol.

[President Johnson]

Manchin completely conned WV voters in 2018 and they totally fell for it, but given that it’s WV we’re talking about, it’s only par for the course. It would have been fun to see some of the entertaining reactions of Trump/Manchin voters to Manchin voting for impeachment. The fact that Republicans couldn’t beat him in 2018 after all the fodder for attack ads they had was easily the most humiliating Senate result of the last two decades for either party, even more so than AL-SEN 2017 (which you can chalk up to turnout patterns in a special election and Moore being an atrocious candidate/campaigner). It was the equivalent of Democrats losing a Senate race in HI and the Republican Senator from HI proceeding to vote for Obama's impachment the year after the election. Can’t wait for WV's reactions when the Senate under Biden is 50-50 and Manchin is the deciding vote until 2023, lol.

Not on topic to this megathread, but Manchin will probably stop a number of Biden-backed bills in a 50-50 senate, especially when it comes to climate and gun control. He'll vote for a public option on Obamacare, which should be popular in his state, but nothing that goes against the coal industry. He'll certainly speak out at some of President Biden's executive actions to promote green energy and environmental regulations. That's why I hope Democrats can get 51 or 52 seats not to depend on Manchin. He'll probably retire in 2024 from the senate anyway, and Republicans finally control all statewide elected offices in West Virginia.

[MT Treasurer]

Not on topic to this megathread, but Manchin will probably stop a number of Biden-backed bills in a 50-50 senate, especially when it comes to climate and gun control. He'll vote for a public option on Obamacare, which should be popular in his state, but nothing that goes against the coal industry. He'll certainly speak at some of President Biden's executive actions to promote green energy and environmental regulations. That's why I hope Democrats can get 51 or 52 seats not to depend in Manchin. He'll probably retire in 2024 from the senate anyway, and Republicans finally control all statewide elected offices in West Virginia.

There’s zero incentive for Manchin to stop any Biden-backed bill given that he just won reelection and might not even run for another term in 2024. His votes on impeachment and Kavanaugh have made it pretty clear what his voting record will look like for the remainder of his term, so you’re definitely safe with a 50-50 majority (also don’t underestimate Murkowski's willingness to break with her own party).

[wbrocks67]

This is very smart on Gideon's behalf. Honestly, more senate candidates should be doing this. I don't think normal everyday people realize just how many conservative judges are being confirmed every single day

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1307768617208098819

[Lognog]

This is very smart on Gideon's behalf. Honestly, more senate candidates should be doing this. I don't think normal everyday people realize just how many conservative judges are being confirmed every single day

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1307768617208098819

great ad tying Collins directly to Trump, also glad they got that out so fast.

I don't live in Maine but I've been here a few weeks and I gotta say the Gideon team is doing a fantastic job