ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[WD]

Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

That has to be one of the worst attack ads I've ever seen,  Gideon's campaign could play that as an advertisement.

They even positive, happy sounding music

What is this? If Collins thinks that supporting affordable healthcare for Mainers and prioritizing adequate gun control legislation for Mainers is working against Maine, then I don't what her priorities are. Especially considering that many of the things highlighted in the ad are policy objectives that Collins herself has professed to believe in for many years. If anything, her ad has helped expose viewers to many of Gideons' substantive policy positions (positions that a majority of Mainers agree with), which will be a boon to her, not a detriment.

This ad literally just showed Gideon has positions that a majority of Mainers will agree with. It does nothing but help Gideon.

lol Republicans are so bad at this it’s almost sad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden endorses Gideon

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1284084534087159810

Oh no! My opponent has too many good priorities. Isn't it just so unfair and wrong that Gideon gets to run on a platform that the majority of Mainers support?

[Holmes]

Well that’s an attack ad we’ll be talking about for years to come.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

This attack ad is so terrible, it should be marked down as an in-kind contribution to the Sara Gideon campaign.

The font makes it look like a fast food commercial. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1288457621150867457

[OneJ]

That was a pro-Gideon ad, you can’t convince me otherwise.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

in response to that ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAmsrPHZdTg

[Ogre Mage]

Collins' campaign is out with a GREAT ad for Sarah Gideon.

https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603

That "attack" ad is absolutely hysterical.  I thought Sara Gideon was becoming the host of a game show in which contestants won Democratic policy priorities as prizes, lol.

[GoldenMainer]

That ad is a mess. This attack ad that I keep seeing is much better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwMMIN30VTk



This still remains one of my favorites from Gideon. Simple and effective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAWTqc333Ow

[MT Treasurer]

That ad is a mess. This attack ad that I keep seeing is much better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwMMIN30VTk



This still remains one of my favorites from Gideon. Simple and effective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAWTqc333Ow

What’s your current prediction for this race? (Even if it’s just a "gut feeling", I’m genuinely curious.)

[GoldenMainer]

What’s your current prediction for this race? (Even if it’s just a "gut feeling", I’m genuinely curious.)

Gut feeling:   Collins- 53 or 54  Gideon- 46 or 47

I think a lot of people underestimate how much of an institution Collins is and how she has done a solid job making herself visible all across the state especially for some of our biggest employers (Bath Iron Works, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard which employs a lot of people in southern Maine). Can she lose? Of course. Do I think much more needs to be done to make that happen? Also yes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What’s your current prediction for this race? (Even if it’s just a "gut feeling", I’m genuinely curious.)

Gut feeling:   Collins- 54

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

[GoldenMainer]

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see her struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Mills won in 2018 by under 8% and she was from the second district. She also wasn't facing a 20+ year incumbent. There was also a third-party candidate so Mills only got about 51% in a great year for Dems as a solid candidate. Gideon isn't a better statewide candidate than Mills.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see herself struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Oh ok, that makes more sense. Thanks for the update on the race in ME. This race has been really difficult for me to pinpoint (I could see anything from like Collins +10 to Gideon +10) but overall I think it's a slight tilt to Gideon (I've always been skeptical about this race though), but you're from Maine so you know better than I. My model says Gideon is roughly a 2/3 favorite to win, but the ME senate race has a very very large range of realistic outcomes according to the model as well, because of all the conflicting factors. Also; who knows how much the national environment will impact this race.

[MT Treasurer]

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see her struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Mills won in 2018 by under 8% and she was from the second district. She also wasn't facing a 20+ year incumbent. There was also a third-party candidate so Mills only got about 51% in a great year for Dems as a solid candidate. Gideon isn't a better statewide candidate than Mills.

Thanks a lot. it sounds dumb and I really don’t have much to back this up (it’s mostly gut feeling, and I realize that I could be totally wrong), but I still feel like Collins is being underestimated here and that ME isn’t part of the Democrats' path of least resistance to 50 seats in the Senate. Either way, I feel like this race is going to surprise a lot of people regardless of what happens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you mean Collins down 54%!? Or do you mean Collins wins with 54% of the vote? Or was that a typo and supposed to be Collins -5.4%?

Sorry, I clicked send before I finished. It's all updated. I predict a 54-46 Collins race right now. Just a gut feeling. I grew up with blue collar independent friends and family and they are all likely voting for Collins again. They are not persuaded by the Kavanaugh argument. They care about jobs and Collins has done a solid job making herself visible with these blue collar employers throughout the years. I see Gideon doing well along the coast and in the Portland area. I see her struggling in the second district and inland areas of the first.

Mills won in 2018 by under 8% and she was from the second district. She also wasn't facing a 20+ year incumbent. There was also a third-party candidate so Mills only got about 51% in a great year for Dems as a solid candidate. Gideon isn't a better statewide candidate than Mills.

Thanks a lot. it sounds dumb and I really don’t have much to back this up (it’s mostly gut feeling, and I realize that I could be totally wrong), but I still feel like Collins is being underestimated here and that ME isn’t part of the Democrats' path of least resistance to 50 seats in the Senate. Either way, I feel like this race is going to surprise a lot of people regardless of what happens.

I feel like she has more pathways to victory, especially since RCV encourages running to the center, but if she continue down her current trajectory, she won't win unless the GOP is doing decent nationally. I would personally advise her to distance herself from Trump because she may be able to get more crossover appeal, and the Trump supporters who aren't huge fans of her will still put her before Gideon.

[wbrocks67]

this is some Martha McSally realness

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1289541967970369536

[Landslide Lyndon]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2014, Collins along with Snowe and Specter voted for Obamacare, that's why Collins won

[VAR]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.

Wasn't purely because his state changed. Some of it was increased levels of partisanship nationally. He literally won unopposed by an R in 2008, and won with liek 80% of the vote, and then lost by 10%, taht's not AR trending R as much as it is partisanship.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.

We might as well be talking about a different world comparing 2008 and 2020. Back then ticket-splitting was still prevalent in many states. Not it's almost dead. If Biden wins Maine by double digits then I wouldn't bet my rent money that there will be little more than a handful of Biden-Collins voters.

[Not Me, Us]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.

We might as well be talking about a different world comparing 2008 and 2020. Back then ticket-splitting was still prevalent in many states. Not it's almost dead. If Biden wins Maine by double digits then I wouldn't bet my rent money that there will be little more than a handful of Biden-Collins voters.

While I think Collins is the underdog here, there's no way Biden wins Maine by double digits.

[VAR]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.

We might as well be talking about a different world comparing 2008 and 2020. Back then ticket-splitting was still prevalent in many states. Not it's almost dead. If Biden wins Maine by double digits then I wouldn't bet my rent money that there will be little more than a handful of Biden-Collins voters.

In a state which Hillary Clinton won with 47 percent? Yeah, no. Biden may take those Gary Johnson voters for granted, but Gideon shouldn’t.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I find the argument that Collins is the favorite because of her past landslides unconvincing.
Mark Pryor won a second term unopposed in 2008 and just six years later he lost by 20. Maine isn't Arkansas but then again a loss is a loss, whether by 1, 5, or 10 points.

But you’re forgetting that Democrats won every statewide race in Arkansas in 2006, a year similar to ‘08. And that they lost every statewide race in 2014. The thing is, Pryor lost because his state changed. And there’s nothing he could do about it.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, defied a blue wave to win by 23 points. Maine hasn’t become significantly more Democratic/less Republican since 2014/2016, so I think your counter argument is... unconvincing.

We might as well be talking about a different world comparing 2008 and 2020. Back then ticket-splitting was still prevalent in many states. Not it's almost dead. If Biden wins Maine by double digits then I wouldn't bet my rent money that there will be little more than a handful of Biden-Collins voters.

While I think Collins is the underdog here, there's no way Biden wins Maine by double digits.

That's what the few polls we had show.